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[Markets] Dow Jones Slides 300 Points Ahead Of Today's Fed Minutes; Coinbase, Nvidia, Tesla Sell Off The Dow Jones dived 300 points ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coinbase, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 9:56:39 AM
[Markets] Stocks Extend Losses Ahead of Fed Minutes Stocks extended losses as investors pared back their optimism over rate cuts ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 230 points or 0.6%, doubling its losses from the market open. Published:1/3/2024 9:40:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides 240 Points Ahead Of Today's Fed Minutes; Coinbase, Nvidia, Tesla Sell Off The Dow Jones dropped 240 points ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coinbase, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 9:23:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls 180 Points Ahead Of Today's Fed Minutes; Coinbase, Nvidia, Tesla Slide The Dow Jones dropped 180 points ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coinbase, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 8:56:22 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls 150 Points Ahead Of Today's Fed Minutes; Coinbase, Nvidia, Tesla Slide The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coinbase, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 8:49:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Today's Fed Minutes; Coinbase, Nvidia, Tesla Slide The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coinbase, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 8:36:40 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Fed Minutes; Coindesk, Nvidia, Tesla Slide Dow Jones futures dropped ahead of today's Fed minutes. Stock market leaders Coindesk, Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:1/3/2024 7:24:28 AM
[Markets] U.S. Stock Futures Slip Ahead of Fed Minutes U.S. stock markets were set for a muted opening on Wednesday after a bout of technology-stock selling the previous day. Attention is likely to be on the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary-policy meeting. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 63 points, or 0.2%. Published:1/3/2024 5:55:16 AM
[Markets] U.S. Stock Futures Waver with Fed Minutes Awaited U.S. stock markets were set for a muted opening on Wednesday after a bout of technology-stock selling the previous day. Attention is likely to be on the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary-policy meeting. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 11 points, or less than 0.1%. Published:1/3/2024 3:26:16 AM
[Markets] 3 Major Indexes on Pace for Losses The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell back into negative territory in afternoon trading Tuesday. The Dow, which opened with a loss, had declined 0.1% by 2:36 p.m Eastern. It was in the positive territory for part of the day. Published:1/2/2024 1:46:48 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Caterpillar In Buy Area; AI Giant Nvidia At Crossroads Dow Jones leader Caterpillar is in buy range after a recent breakout, while AI giant Nvidia stock is at a key crossroads. Published:1/2/2024 1:35:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Ekes Out a Gain. Other Indexes Stay Negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a recovery mid-afternoon Tuesday, buoyed by healthcare stocks. The Dow gained 0.2% after opening with a loss on the first trading day of 2024. The S&P 500 remained in the red, down 0.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, weakest of them all, was down 1.3%. Published:1/2/2024 11:41:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls 195 Points As Apple Slides On Downgrade; Tesla Drops After Q4 Deliveries The Dow Jones dropped 195 points Tuesday as Apple stock sold off on a downgrade. Tesla stock dropped despite strong fourth-quarter deliveries. Published:1/2/2024 8:40:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall 225 Points As Apple Slides On Downgrade; Tesla Delivery Report Due Dow Jones futures dropped 225 points as Apple stock sold off on a downgrade. Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries are due out shortly. Published:1/2/2024 7:40:01 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall 200 Points As Apple Slides On Downgrade; Tesla Delivery Report Due Dow Jones futures dropped 200 points as Apple stock sold off on a downgrade. Tesla's fourth-quarter delivery figures are due later in the day. Published:1/2/2024 7:26:23 AM
[Markets] Stock market news today: US futures sink to start new year as Apple slips Dow futures drop over 180 points, while Nasdaq futures lose around 1% as the rally in stocks falters. Published:1/2/2024 6:25:16 AM
[Markets] Trump Warns Of Market Crash And 1929-Style 'Great Depression' If He Doesn't Win Trump Warns Of Market Crash And 1929-Style 'Great Depression' If He Doesn't Win

Authored by Tom Ozimek vai The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump predicted Friday that if he doesn’t win the 2024 presidential election, America will suffer the biggest stock market crash in history - followed by another Great Depression-style event.

President Trump made the remark in a post on social media, in which he said the economy under President Joe Biden is in “terrible” shape as high inflation has hammered American households and eroded their buying power.

“The only thing that is keeping the economy ‘alive’ is the fumes of what we accomplished during the Trump administration,” the former president wrote, adding that, by some measures, the cumulative level of inflation since he left office is over 30 percent.

Official government data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that prices have risen by around 17 percent since President Biden took office. However, an alternative measure of inflation that uses the same methodology that the government used to measure inflation in the 1980s puts this figure at roughly twice that figure, so over 30 percent.

Even though President Biden’s economic advisers have pointed to cooling inflation and a robust job market as signs that his “Bidenomics” policies are working, there’s been a chorus of economic indicators suggesting otherwise.

“The inflation has calmed down a little bit now, but that’s because the economy is not good. The jobs numbers are fake because millions of people are not looking for jobs,” Trump said.

Some of those indicators include job openings falling to their lowest level since March 2021, new orders for U.S.-made goods suffering their sharpest drop in more than three years, and a closely watched factory activity gauge showing that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted in November for the 13th consecutive month.

Stock Market Crash?

Still, with markets expecting the Fed to hit the brakes on more interest hikes as inflation has eased in recent months, stock markets have risen and consumer sentiment saw an uptick in December.

The benchmark S&P 500 is up around 24 percent in 2023 and hovering near its all-time high, while the Dow Jones recently rose to a record high.

It’s a development President Trump attributed to expectations around next year’s election.

“The stock market is only high because people & institutions believe & expect me to win the presidential election of 2024,” he wrote, before adding:

“If I don’t win, it is my prediction that we will have a stock market ‘crash’ worse than that of 1929 - a Great Depression.”

The Wall Street crashes of late October 1929 - known as Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday - were the worst in U.S. history.

Not only did it produce the largest stock market decline ever (the Dow Jones fell 89 percent from top to bottom), it also contributed to the Great Depression; an economic crisis of epic proportions that gripped America for nearly a whole decade in the 1930s.

President Trump’s grim prediction for an economic meltdown if he fails to win the race for the White House comes amid recent polling showing that he leads President Biden by 18 points on who is the most trusted with the economy—the single most important issue for voters.

“There’s a new narrative; I’m telling you the reason the stock market is up is only because people think I’m going to win the election,” Trump asserted.

Biden Approval Rating Hits Record Low on Economic Worries

President Joe Biden’s approval rating hit an all-time low, a recent survey showed, with voters giving the president especially poor marks on immigration and the economy.

Just 34 percent of voters in the latest Monmouth University Poll approve of President Biden’s performance, which is down sharply from 54 percent shortly after he assumed office in 2021 and the lowest level in the history of the survey.

More than two-thirds disapprove of his performance in the areas of immigration and inflation.

Even though inflation has come down from a recent 40-plus-year high of 9.1 percent in annualized terms in June 2022, many months of elevated price pressures have taken a toll on American families.

The Heritage Foundation recently estimated that inflation is costing the typical American family around $7,400 in lost annual income. And while official government data shows inflation up 17 percent since President Biden took office, an alternative measure developed by economist John Williams estimates that it’s around twice as high.

On immigration, since President Biden took office, there have been around 8 million illegal immigrant encounters nationwide, including a record 3.2 million in fiscal year 2023 alone.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) logged the busiest November on record last month, with encounters at the southern border totaling 242,418, according to its monthly report. This figure is higher than even the highest month seen under President Trump.

December is on track to set a record for the highest number of illegal alien encounters for a single month ever, according to shocking preliminary data obtained by Fox News on Dec. 29, indicating that there have already been over 276,000 apprehensions, even excluding the final three days of the month. The current record of 269,735 was set in September.

At the same time, a mere 3 in 10 Americans said President Biden is giving enough attention to issues that are most important to them, per the Monmouth poll.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/31/2023 - 11:40
Published:12/31/2023 10:46:10 AM
[Markets] 3 Beaten-Down Dow Jones Stocks That Dividend Investors Should Scoop Up in 2024 These "Dogs of the Dow" offer attractive dividend yields and upside potential. Published:12/31/2023 6:53:07 AM
[Markets] Why the Dogs of the Dow Were a Big Disappointment in 2023 After finally breaking through in 2022 with a solid showing, this popular strategy underperformed the broader Dow Jones Industrials for the fifth year out of six. Published:12/30/2023 5:07:22 AM
[Markets] My Top ETF to Buy for 2024 (and It's Not Even Close) Investing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be a great bet for 2024. Published:12/30/2023 4:54:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Bull Market: 2 Highly Recommended Growth Stocks to Buy Now, According to Wall Street These blue chip stocks could make investors richer as the nascent Dow Jones bull market builds momentum. Published:12/29/2023 4:20:31 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall Street ends slightly lower, capping blockbuster year Even so, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session lower. The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq have booked nine consecutive weekly gains -- the longest weekly winning streak for the S&P 500 since January 2004, and the longest for the Dow and the Nasdaq since early 2019. Published:12/29/2023 3:41:21 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares dip to cap stellar year; Treasuries end volatile 2023 flat Shares around the world have risen sharply in the last two months of the year as benchmark bond yields fell on expectations of central bank rate cuts in 2024. On Friday the index lost 0.23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%. "With New Year’s and record-high territory quickly approaching, investors have the champagne on ice going into the holiday weekend," Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said in an email. Published:12/29/2023 1:46:27 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Up, But Sellers Hit Techs, Small Caps; Tesla Stock Weakens Ahead Of Delivery Data The Dow Jones was under modest selling pressure in afternoon trading Friday, but tech stocks and small caps succumbed to profit-taking. Published:12/29/2023 12:26:34 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall Street loses steam on last day of upbeat 2023 All three indexes were in the red by early afternoon on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses on a decline in megacap stocks. "Expectations are that investors will lighten up early in the new year," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The Dow Jones hit a record high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq has outperformed Wall Street peers, rising 43% this year given the artificial intelligence boom and a surge in megacap stocks. Published:12/29/2023 11:55:50 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares dip to cap stellar year; Treasuries end volatile 2023 flat Shares around the world have risen sharply in the last two months of the year, as benchmark bond yields fell on expectations of central bank rate cuts in 2024. On Friday, the S&P 500 lost 0.53%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.79%. "With New Year’s and record-high territory quickly approaching, investors have the champagne on ice going into the holiday weekend," Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial, said in an email. Published:12/29/2023 11:38:28 AM
[Markets] Markets Lose Momentum. S&P 500 Slips Away from Record High. Stocks entered negative territory after Friday's market open, with the S&P 500 slipping away from marking a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 115 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.9%. The S&P 500's Friday performance was affected by the Information Technology, Communication Services and Real estate sector, which was the biggest losing category for the index in morning trading. Published:12/29/2023 10:56:46 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Edges Lower, But Sellers Hit Nasdaq, Small Caps; Tesla Stock Weakens Ahead Of Q4 Delivery Data The Dow Jones held near a record high Friday on the final trading day of 2023. But selling picked up the pace in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. Published:12/29/2023 10:30:33 AM
[Markets] Markets Lose Momentum. Real Estate Stocks Are a Drag. Shortly after Friday's market open, stocks entered negative territory, with the S&P 500 slipping away from marking a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 37 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.5%. The S&P 500's Friday performance was being impacted by the real estate sector, which was the biggest losing category for the index in morning trading. Published:12/29/2023 10:08:12 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones, S&P 500 Trade Near Record Highs; Tesla Stock Dips Ahead Of Key Delivery Data The Dow Jones held near a record high Friday on the final trading day of 2023. Boeing, Nike and Microsoft were early gainers. Published:12/29/2023 9:55:09 AM
[Markets] There Are Only 5 Dow Stocks I Wouldn't Buy in 2024 There's a lot to like about Apple, Microsoft, and most of the Dow Jones Industrial Average components in 2024. Published:12/29/2023 9:07:32 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Drops In Final Session Of 2023; Nvidia Rises On New Chip For China The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Friday in the final trading session of 2023. Nvidia stock rose on a new gaming chip for China. Published:12/29/2023 8:41:31 AM
[Markets] 15 Best Dow Stocks To Buy Now In this article, we discuss the 15 best Dow stocks to buy now. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of these stocks, go directly to 5 Best Dow Stocks To Buy Now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also known as Dow Jones or Dow, is one of the oldest and most followed equity […] Published:12/29/2023 7:53:00 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Dip Ahead Of Final Session Of 2023; Nvidia Rises On New Chip For China Dow Jones futures fell Friday heading into the final trading session of 2023. Nvidia stock rose on a new gaming chip for China. Published:12/29/2023 7:37:44 AM
[Markets] Quiet Markets, Ugly Treasury Auction, Fed's Agenda, Bitcoin, Nvidia, Alphabet The S&P 500 gained less than two points or 0.04% for the day as the Nasdaq Composite surrendered four points or 0.03%. The less than good news would be that no professional trader I know has followed the Dow Industrials closely since the 1990's. Very little capital tracks the Dow. The Russell 2000 and the S&P SmallCap 600 were the two weakest equity indexes across our marketplace, giving up just 0.38% and 0.27%, respectively. Published:12/29/2023 6:55:21 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares hold gains as rate cuts eyed for New Year World shares edged up on Thursday as expectations of interest rate cuts stretched a rally in U.S. stocks, while benchmark Treasury yields and the dollar lifted slightly from five-month lows. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were little changed. "Right now, we really do not want to step in front of Santa's gift-laden sleigh," Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note Thursday. Published:12/28/2023 3:25:22 PM
[Markets] Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High Crude, Crypto, & Credit Crumble As S&P Nears Record High

The penultimate trading day of the year was 'mixed' with Small Cap stocks and Treasury Bonds down; The dollar and The Dow up; and crypto, credit, and crude all falling as what little macro data there was disappointed (wholesale inventories declined for the 9th month in a row; claims rising more than expected and pending home sales weaker than expected).

March rate-cut odds remain around 85-90% with around 160bps of rate-cuts priced-in still for 2024.

“What we are seeing now is a bond carnival,” said Hideo Shimomura, a senior portfolio manager at Fivestar Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

“Bond investors have been hibernating and now I feel that their explosive desire is to come out of their lair.”

Small Caps were the day's biggest losers as yields spiked with The Dow outperforming. But a late-day sell-off spoiled the party for the S&P 500 (but The Dow ended just green)...

The S&P traded up to 4793 intraday (just shy of the closing high of 4796), but a late-day selloff tested unchanged and managed to close just green...

The Dow and S&P are up for 13 of the last 15 days and the S&P 500 is on track for its 9th straight green week - the longest winning streak in 20 years.

The last time the S&P 500 did a 10-week streak was in 1985.

'Most Shorted' stocks squeezed higher once again at the open but were sold almost constantly after that...

Source: Bloomberg

MAG7 stocks were sold late-on but ended green as a basket...

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets disagreed with equities today - for a recent change - with HYG (HY Corporate bond ETF) tumbling

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold today, hurt by an ugly tail for the 7Y auction, but remain lower on the holiday shortened week. A late-day buying program in bonds reduced the pain and left the belly underperforming (5Y +5bps, 2Y and 30Y +3bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

The world’s debt market is on track to post its biggest two-month gain on record as traders ramp up expectations that central banks everywhere will slash interest rates next year.

Source: Bloomberg

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index has risen nearly 10% over November and December, its best two-month run in data going back to 1990.

“The ferocity of the bond market rally has really augmented the total returns for investors,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

“There’s a feeling markets are signaling we’re heading half-way toward easy monetary policy again.”

The dollar rallied back from yesterday's slump, erasing around half of that decline today...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum managed to cling to green today, but was well off its overnight highs by the end of the US session...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin, however, was pummeled back below $42,500 before finding support...

Source: Bloomberg

Which combined means that ETH/BTC has broken the key resistance

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold hit $2088 highs overnight but faded all day with a good kick from Benoit as Europe opened...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices extended yesterday's losses with WTI breaking down to a $71 handle - the lowest in a week...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella notes, the S&P is in the 3rd wave of the 5-wave Elliott theory which is typically its most powerful and extended. Upon completion, the index will enter the 4th wave, a correction.

Source: Bloomberg

How far is anyone's guess but the last one which began in January of 2022 lasted around 10 months for a 20-25% drop.

While a correction seems a certainty, there’s plenty of time left to devise a risk-off strategy of your choosing. The chart suggests the index may still climb above 4900 - a new record high - before rolling over.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/28/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/28/2023 3:19:25 PM
[Markets] Dow Reaches New Closing High, S&P 500 Stalls The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked a new record close, while S&P 500 stalled Thursday. The Dow gained 54 points or 0.14%. The S&P 500 closed slightly higher, up 0.04%. It marked a new 52-week high for the third consecutive day, but fell short of its January 2022 closing high of 4,796. Published:12/28/2023 3:19:25 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares hold gains as rate cuts eyed for New Year World shares edged up on Thursday as expectations of interest rate cuts stretched a rally in U.S. stocks, while benchmark Treasury yields and the dollar were steady near five-month lows. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.07%. "Right now, we really do not want to step in front of Santa's gift-laden sleigh," Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note Thursday. Published:12/28/2023 12:41:16 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares hold gains as rate cuts eyed for New Year On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.18% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.22%. "Right now, we really do not want to step in front of Santa's gift-laden sleigh," Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note Thursday. Still, an absence of major news has not stopped investors from ramping up bets on rapid-fire rate cuts next year from the Federal Reserve. Published:12/28/2023 12:11:14 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Remains Positive; These Chips Stocks Pop; Dow Jones Near Highs Major stock market indexes remained in the black Thursday as they tried to build on narrow gains in midday trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new watermark, but eased off earlier highs. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq built on marginal gains and were all up around 0.2% on the stock market today. Published:12/28/2023 11:56:40 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Rally Continues; Dow Jones Hits Another Record High The stock market rally continues with the S&P 500 near highs. Dow stock Apple is in the buy zone of a base. Walgreens stock gets a lift. Published:12/28/2023 9:55:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Shakes Up Bitcoin Positions The Dow Jones rose Thursday after initial jobless claims. Cathie Wood shook up her bitcoin-related positions, selling COIN stock. Published:12/28/2023 9:11:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Shakes Up Bitcoin Positions Dow Jones futures fell Thursday after initial jobless claims. Cathie Wood shook up her bitcoin-related positions, selling COIN stock. Published:12/28/2023 7:48:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Shakes Up Bitcoin Positions Dow Jones futures fell Thursday ahead of initial jobless claims. Cathie Wood shook up her bitcoin-related positions, selling COIN stock. Published:12/28/2023 7:27:42 AM
[Markets] These 5 Stocks in the S&P 500 Are Having a Stellar 2023 The stock market is set to end the year on a high note, but people holding certain stocks may be happier than the rest of us. Excitement around artificial intelligence, signs of cooling inflation,and strong economic data reasons are all reasons why the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are slated to finish 2023 far into the green. Published:12/28/2023 3:25:21 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 12/27/2023 The Dow rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The S&P 500 is up more than 24% for the year, while the Nasdaq, which is heavily weighted with technology companies, is up 44%. The Nasdaq composite rose 24.60 points, or 0.2%, to 15,099.18. Published:12/27/2023 3:36:15 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Record Gains; 6 Magnificent Seven Stocks Near Buy Points The Dow Jones Industrial Average scored another all-time high Wednesday afternoon and pulled back slightly in late trading. MSTR has rallied over the past three months but its Composite Rating lags at 69. Published:12/27/2023 2:39:02 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises Ahead Of Fed Manufacturing Data; Tesla Stock Retakes Buy Point The Dow Jones rose Wednesday after the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs. Tesla stock regained its latest buy point. Published:12/27/2023 9:14:17 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Little Changed as S&P 500 Nears Record High Stocks opened little changed on Wednesday as the major indexes hovered around record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 21 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 opened flat, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0. Published:12/27/2023 8:56:29 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Fed Manufacturing Data; Tesla Stock Retakes Buy Point The Dow Jones fell Wednesday after the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs. Tesla stock regained its latest buy point. Published:12/27/2023 8:39:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Manufacturing Data; Tesla Stock Retakes Buy Point Dow Jones futures fell Wednesday after the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs. Tesla stock regained its latest buy point. Published:12/27/2023 8:11:37 AM
[Markets] Stocks Sprint Ahead. S&P 500 Hits 52-Week Closing High. Stocks sprinted higher Tuesday to kick of the last trading week of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 159 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, marking a new 52-week closing high, but short of the 0. Published:12/26/2023 3:29:23 PM
[Markets] Stocks Close Higher to Kick Off Last Trading Week of the Year Stocks sprinted higher Tuesday to kick of the last trading week of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 159 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, short of the 0.88% increase needed on Tuesday to reach its closing record. Published:12/26/2023 3:10:56 PM
[Markets] Dow Up 200 Points Heading Into the Close Stocks moved higher as the markets headed to a close on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 207 points or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7% at 3:30 pm Eastern. Published:12/26/2023 2:39:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains Amid Santa Claus Rally; Cathie Wood Piles Into This Stock Despite 21% Plunge The Dow Jones gained as the Santa Rally gathered pace. Manchester United stock popped. Cathie Wood snapped up a plunging stock. Published:12/26/2023 2:20:59 PM
[Markets] Santa Claus Rally In High Gear For Dow; Tesla Eyes 2024 Growth Phase As China Deliveries Surge The Dow was up more than 0.3% as was the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 added to recent hefty gains. Published:12/26/2023 1:10:59 PM
[Markets] Stocks On Win Streak In Santa Claus Rally; Tesla Eyes New Record To Wrap Up The Year The Dow was up more than 0.3% as was the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 added to recent hefty gains. Published:12/26/2023 11:35:24 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Global stocks edge up, dollar stalks 5-month low Global stocks crept higher on Tuesday and the dollar lingered near a five-month low as investors held fast to bets that cooling U.S. inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. Oil prices jumped over 2% to the highest in almost a month, supported by Middle East strife and investor hopes that possible rate cuts will boost global economic growth and fuel demand. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 gained 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.43%. Published:12/26/2023 10:24:18 AM
[Markets] Santa Claus Rally In Gear For Dow, Other Indexes; Tesla Eyes New Record To Wrap Up The Year The Dow was up more than 0.3% as was the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 added to recent hefty gains Published:12/26/2023 10:18:05 AM
[Markets] Stocks Edge Higher to Close Out Last Week of the Year Stocks moved slightly higher Tuesday following a long holiday weekend amid signs of a consistently strong housing market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 was up 0. Published:12/26/2023 8:48:10 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Comes Out Ahead After Holiday; Google Leads 8 Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Tuesday after a slew of economic data. Google stock led eight stocks to buy and watch in today's stock market. Published:12/26/2023 8:39:40 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Come Out Ahead After Holiday; Google Leads 8 Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of key economic data. Google stock led eight stocks to buy and watch in today's stock market. Published:12/26/2023 8:01:24 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 12/22/2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 18 points, or less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite edged 0.2% higher. A report on Friday showed the measure of inflation the Federal Reserve prefers to use slowed by more than economists expected, down to 2.6% in November from 2.9% a month earlier. The Nasdaq composite rose 29.11 points, or 0.2%, to 14,992.97. Published:12/22/2023 6:10:59 PM
[Markets] Stocks Finish Mixed as Indexes Mark 8th Consecutive Week of Gains Stocks closed mixed on Friday, after the release of the latest personal consumption expenditures index reading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 18 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both gained 0.2%. Published:12/22/2023 3:17:46 PM
[Markets] Crypto, Crude, & Crap Stocks Rally As Yield Curve Steepens, Rate-Cut Hopes Soar Crypto, Crude, & Crap Stocks Rally As Yield Curve Steepens, Rate-Cut Hopes Soar

A weird week of macro data - strong jobless claims but weak labor market data from UMich; housing starts soared but new home sales crashed; rapidly slowing inflation all driven by goods deflation (as crude prices begin rising again). So macro surprises have flatlined for a week or two - even as financial conditions continue to loosen dramatically...

Source: Bloomberg

As Goldman's Chris Hussey notes, "This week we got further data suggesting that we have not only landed softly, but that the principal concern of a successfully soft landing economy -- that growth takes off again, triggering renewed inflation, and prolonging the Fed hiking cycle -- is likely behind us."

Small Caps soared almost 3% this week (its 6th straight week higher), now up 25% from the lows on Oct 27th. The Dow lagged on the week, but still managed gains while Nasdaq and S&P rallied for the 8th week in a row (the longest streak since 2017)...

Today was 0-DTE selling pressure again, like Wednesday (but on a smaller scale) and Thursday (which worked briefly but then was face-ripped).

The black line is the S&P 500. The red line is 0-DTE options delta flow...

Source: SpotGamma

Wednesday, it worked...

Source: SpotGamma

Thursday, it almost worked...

Source: SpotGamma

'Crap' stocks - ok, profit-less tech - surged this week, but not before Wednesday's 0-DTE-inspired crash wrecked some dreams...

Source: Bloomberg

...and no this is not the same chart, 'most shorted' stocks also followed the same pattern with a big squeeze at the cash open every day this week...

Source: Bloomberg

...and the biggest losers have become the biggest winners as financial conditions have eased...

Source: Bloomberg

The Bullish consensus is getting serious...

Source: Bloomberg

Are investors really excited about The Fed being forced to massively slash rates?

Rate-cut expectations surged to a new high this week, now pricing in 163bps of cuts in 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

If The Fed needs to cut rates that far, that fast, it won't be because of slowing inflation - it will be because of accelerating depression... which ain't good for stonks.

Nevertheless, the market is now pricing a 90% chance of The Fed starting to cut rates in March...

Source: Bloomberg

So much for the FedSpeak trying to jawbone the market back from its extreme reaction to Powell.

They better hope that cyclical inflation doesn't 'cycle' back higher (cough Red Sea cough)... and/or that acyclical inflation falls fast...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed this week with the short-end the best performer by far but the long bond was the only segment of the curve to end higher on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

Which bull-steepened the curve quite notably on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell to its weakest since July, down for the 5th week in the last 6...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum soared today relative to bitcoin, but only enough to bring it back to unchanged (relative to bitcoin) on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, both ETH and BTC were up around 4% (while Solana soared 35%), with BTC holding around $44,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is up 4 of the last 5 days, rising for the 5th week of the last 6 and back above $2050 spot to three-week highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rose for the second week in a row, after seven straight weeks lower. The 3% jump in WTI was the best week since mid-October (finding resistance at $75)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, from a valuation perspective, things are getting a little pricey. It now takes the average American 1279 hours of work to earn enough to buy The Dow...

Source: Bloomberg

That's quite a jump from the 225-hour average from 1965 to 1995 before Greenspan unleashed the activist Fed.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/22/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/22/2023 3:05:35 PM
[Markets] The Dow Is Dropping as Solid Week Comes to a Close The Dow Jones Industrial Average was dropping Friday as major component stocks fell. The Dow had declined 9 points, or less than 0.1%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.2%. The Dow was being battered down by some top components. Published:12/22/2023 2:08:02 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Up Despite Nike Sell-Off; Inflation Cools, But Chinese Stocks Plunge On Clampdown News The Dow Jones was in rally mode near midday Friday, helped by another cool reading on inflation. But a couple of Chinese stocks fell sharply. Published:12/22/2023 11:18:57 AM
[Markets] All Three Major Indexes Are on Pace for Eight Consecutive Weeks of Gains The Santa rally has started early, with all three major indexes on pace for eight consecutive weeks of gains. This marks the index’s largest eight-week percentage gain since December 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 has also gained 16% over the last eight weeks, which is its largest eight-week percentage gain since August 2022. Published:12/22/2023 10:24:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 100 Points Despite Nike Carnage; Warren Buffett News Lifts This Oil Giant The Dow Jones was in rally mode again early Friday, helped by another cool reading on inflation. Winners beat losers on the NYSE by 4 to 1. Published:12/22/2023 10:05:50 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Key Inflation Data; Nike Stock Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Friday after key inflation data. Nike stock plunged 12% on weak revenue guidance. Published:12/22/2023 8:50:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Key Inflation Data; Nike Stock Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Friday after key inflation data. Nike stock plunged 12% on weak revenue guidance. Published:12/22/2023 8:38:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Key Inflation Data; Nike Stock Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Friday after key inflation data. Nike stock plunged 12% on weak revenue guidance. Published:12/22/2023 7:50:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Key Inflation Data; Nike Stock Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Friday ahead of key inflation data. Nike stock plunged on weak revenue guidance. Published:12/22/2023 7:10:59 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies As Nike Plunges Late; Tesla Stock Leads Magnificent Seven The Dow Jones rallied ahead of Nike earnings. Tesla stock led the Magnificent Seven Higher but Apple stock lagged. Some stocks neared entries. Published:12/21/2023 4:02:11 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Thursday, 12/21/2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.3%. Micron Technology leaped to one of the market’s biggest gains after reporting stronger results than expected. The Nasdaq composite rose 185.92 points, or 1.3%, to 14,963.87. Published:12/21/2023 3:38:13 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains As Nike Earnings Loom; Tesla Stock Leads Magnificent Seven The Dow Jones rallied ahead of Nike earnings. Tesla stock led the Magnificent Seven Higher but Apple stock lagged. Some stock neared entries. Published:12/21/2023 2:17:27 PM
[Markets] Peter Schiff: Did The Fed Steal The Santa Claus Rally? Peter Schiff: Did The Fed Steal The Santa Claus Rally?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The US stock market had a potentially significant day on Wednesday. Markets have been rallying on the hope of interest rate cuts in the near future. But Fed officials have been trying to walk back those expectations. Did the central bankers manage to steal the Santa Claus rally? In his podcast, Peter Schiff talks about the recent moves in the stock market.

Wednesday started with another in a string of 52-week highs for all the major stock indices. Markets rallied early in the day despite FedEx dropping after a big revenue miss.

This should throw cold water on this parade that the economy is in great shape because the fact that a lot less stuff is getting shipped is an indication that maybe the consumer is running out of gas. He’s tapped out. He’s leveraged to the max. He has all this credit card debt. People are starting to have to pay their student loans again.”

Nevertheless, the stock market shrugged off that bad news.

Markets also essentially ignored a really bad Treasury bond auction.

But later in the day, markets tanked. After making a record high, the Dow Jones finished down 475 points. The NASDAQ fell 1.3%. The Russell 2000 dropped nearly 2%.

Not only did these indexes close negative after making 52-week highs, but they also closed below the low from the previous day. This is known as an outside reversal. Peter said outside reversal days are particularly relevant when they snap a significant trend.

The market was going higher day after day after day — a relentless string of gains. … All of a sudden, you get this reversal where the market just collapses. The sellers came out in droves and there were no buyers.”

Peter called it “potentially a very ominous technical sign” that we’ve seen a top. Whether it is a short-term or long-term top is hard to say.

It could be the beginning of a correction, not necessarily a new bear market where you see the markets down 20%.

So, what caused this reversal?

Peter said he thinks it was due to the Federal Reserve backtracking after signaling upcoming rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting.

Ever since Powell let the cat out of the bag and basically conceded that rates are coming down, and they’re coming down substantially, the markets got ahead of it. I think the mood on Wall Street was, ‘Happy days are here again. We’re going back to zero! We’re going back to QE.’ Because that is the experience of the past. Once the Fed starts cutting, they don’t stop until they get to zero. That’s what they’ve done in the past. So, why would anybody assume that the future is going to be any different?”

Keep in mind that Powell & Company went from saying the committee wasn’t even talking about rate cuts at the November meeting to projecting rate cuts one month later.

In one meeting, it was a complete pivot on rate cuts. Why shouldn’t the markets expect that a similar pivot is coming with respect to quantitative easing? That’s the big enchilada that coming — a return to QE.”

This brings back memories of 2019 when the Fed started expanding its balance sheet in response to the big stock market selloff in the fall of that year – long before COVID reared its ugly head.

If they couldn’t shrink the smaller balance sheet, it’s even less likely that they can shrink this even larger balance sheet — especially in an election year.”

Peter said you can typically count on the Fed to help an incumbent president in an election year.

So, the markets are getting in front of this. Obviously, it’s an election year. They want to put lipstick on the pig of an economy that is Bidenomics. What can the Fed do? Well, let’s start cutting rates. Let’s go back to quantitative easing. Let’s goose the markets. Let’s get people excited and let them believe that the economy is getting better. And maybe they think, ‘Who cares about these inflation numbers because we’ve just got to make it through the election.'”

But then you had a bunch of Fed members walking back the doveish rhetoric and calling rate cuts into question.

Since that’s the only thing the market has got going for it… It’s all about liquidity. It’s all about inflation. That’s the story. It’s an expensive market and the economy is weak. That’s the hope that the markets have been bid up on.”

Peter said the moves on Wednesday may indicate the markets have surrendered that hope – at least for the time being.

Unless the Fed wants to come to the rescue of the market by now reversing those calls, which it might do if the markets fall enough, we could see some significant downside in the markets given how big this run has been and how the only thing that’s propped it up is a bunch of hot air.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/21/2023 - 14:40
Published:12/21/2023 1:58:03 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Trims Gains As Small Caps Still Lead; This Stock Boost The Dow After suffering its worst day in months, the stock market bounced back Thursday, although gains thinned out in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 reduced its gain to 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite was up 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3%. Published:12/21/2023 12:36:54 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Rebounds As Small Caps Lead; Almost Every Stock In This Index Is Up After suffering its worst day in months, the stock market bounced back Thursday morning, with small caps and the IBD 50 making big strides. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% at 10:20 a.m. ET, while the Nasdaq composite rose 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7%. Published:12/21/2023 10:11:29 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 325 Points After GDP, Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Buys Tesla Stock The Dow Jones rallied 325 points Thursday after Q3 GDP and jobless claims. Cathie Wood bought over 110,000 shares of Tesla stock. Published:12/21/2023 9:47:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 275 Points After GDP, Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Buys Tesla Stock The Dow Jones rallied 275 points Thursday after Q3 GDP and jobless claims. Cathie Wood bought over 110,000 shares of Tesla stock. Published:12/21/2023 9:01:58 AM
[Markets] Stocks Bounce Back From Big Selloff Stocks are rising Thursday as investors are buying Wednesday’s dip. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 290 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite has advanced 1. Published:12/21/2023 8:46:18 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rebound 275 Points After GDP, Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Buys Tesla Stock Dow Jones futures rallied 275 points Thursday after Q3 GDP and jobless claims. Cathie Wood bought over 110,000 shares of Tesla stock. Published:12/21/2023 7:56:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rebound Ahead Of GDP, Jobless Claims; Cathie Wood Buys Tesla Stock Dow Jones futures rebounded Thursday ahead of the Q3 GDP estimate and jobless claims. Cathie Wood bought nearly 94,000 shares of Tesla stock. Published:12/21/2023 7:22:36 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Does Sharp About-Face; Dow Breaks Win Streak Stock market indexes unexpectedly reversed course in afternoon trading Wednesday, sending the major indexes lower by more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average couldn't add to its nine-day win streak after reaching all-time highs. Published:12/20/2023 3:39:29 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Reverses Sharply Lower; FedEx Stock Worst In S&P 500 In stock market action the Dow Jones pulled back after flirting with record highs. GOOGL stock broke out and hit a buy point of a base. Published:12/20/2023 2:23:34 PM
[Markets] Stocks Turn Lower in Afternoon Trading The stock market’s long rally is hitting a wall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are falling 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. All three indexes were in the green earlier. Published:12/20/2023 1:56:22 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Touches Record Highs, Helped By These Economic Data Surprises Dow Jones fell slightly after economic data. Friday's inflation report looms. GOOGL broke out. Apple is in a buy zone. Published:12/20/2023 11:36:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Index Flat On Strong Economic Data; Magnificent Seven Stock Breaks Out To New High Dow Jones fell slightly after economic data. Friday's inflation report looms. GOOGL broke out. Apple is in a buy zone. Published:12/20/2023 10:18:40 AM
[Markets] Futures Slide, Brent Jumps Back Over $80 As Red Sea Woes Spread Futures Slide, Brent Jumps Back Over $80 As Red Sea Woes Spread

US equity futures and global markets reversed their torrid rally as bonds rallied and the dollar gained after a fresh batch of soft inflation data in the UK boosted the likelihood of interest-rate cuts, but also underscored the risk of an economic downturn. As of 7:45am, S&P eminis dropped 0.2% after the index notched a record high for the third successive session, with European and Asian stocks in the red. Germany 10-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time in nine months after a report showed producer prices fell more than expected in November. Meanwhile, British 10-year borrowing costs slid as much as 11 basis points as slower-than-expected inflation boosted the case for multiple rate cuts next year. Treasury yields slid four basis points to 3.9%, down more than 40 this month. Brent jumped above $80 to a 3 week high after the US considered possible military strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, in a recognition that a newly announced maritime task force meant to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea may not be enough to eliminate the threat to the vital waterway. US economic data includes 3Q current account balance (8:30am), November existing home sales and December consumer confidence (10am).

In premarket trading, FedEx shares tumbled as 10% after the parcel company’s fiscal second-quarter profit came in below expectations, with analysts pointing to a particularly disappointing performance from the Express air-freight unit, which was hit by slowing volumes. Brokers added that the company’s outlook lacked visibility, with Citi calling it “vague.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Cinemark dropped 2.3% as Wells Fargo downgrades the movie theater operator to underweight from equal-weight based on an unattractive box office outlook.
  • Clear Channel shares rose 4.2% after Wells Fargo Securities raised the recommendation on the advertising company to overweight from equal-weight. The broker says the upgrade comes as the company returns to growth.
  • Coupang shares slid 1.2% as UBS downgrades its rating to neutral, awaiting greater clarity on the e-commerce company’s strategy.

Markets have rallied hard in recent weeks after the Fed's dovish pivot which helped put the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 on course for its best year since 1999, while the S&P 500 is less than 1% off its record closing peak. Bulls got fresh encouragement Tuesday from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who suggested the US central bank would “respond appropriately” if recent progress on inflation continued. Money markets now price almost a 50% chance of an euro-area rate cut by next March, while seeing an even higher probability of a Fed cut that month. That said, even Powell's unofficial mouthpiece, Nikileaks, aka Nick Timiraos is now warning that the market that it has gone up too far, too fast.

At the same time, investors are also having to balance rate-cut optimism against the risk of economic recession. Recent data has backed that view, especially in the euro area, with analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting the first recession since the pandemic.

“It’s hard to see such a fast and deep rate-cutting cycle as the market appears to assume, unless the base case is a deep recession,” said Daniele Antonucci, chief investment officer at Quintet Private Bank.

Investors are also starting to weigh risks stemming from potential shipping delays and freight cost increases, as companies divert cargoes away from the Red Sea to avoid militant attacks. This rerouting will mean higher shipping costs and longer delivery time, and has helped push brent crude prices above $80 for the first time in 3 weeks.

The big econ news overnight was the latest confirmation that a global deflationary wave is being unleashed, with UK reporting inflation that came in below the lowest estimate.  The UK data “adds to the mounting evidence that global inflation has begun to crumble on a broader basis,” said Christoph Rieger, head of rates research at Commerzbank.

While the data initially boosted European stocks, gains on the Stoxx 600 index quickly evaporated, though London’s export-oriented FTSE 100 benchmark held its gains as the pound tumbled on the prospect of looser monetary policy. The telecom sector lead the advance, boosted by Spain’s Telefonica. The health-care sector underperforms, meanwhile, dragged lower by Argenx, which plunges after disappointing drug trial data. Among single stocks, shipping companies Hapag Lloyd AG and AP Moller-Maersk A/S rallied as militant attacks continued to disrupt Red Sea container traffic. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • Telefonica shares jump as much as 7.2% after the Spanish state unveiled a plan to buy up to 10% in the telecom operator to counter stakebuilding by Saudi Telecom Co.
  • Intertek gains as much as 3.7% after BNP Paribas Exane double-upgrades to outperform, saying in note that consensus is now overly bearish on margin outlook
  • Raiffeisen Bank surges 12%, the most since March 2022, following its deal to buy a stake in Austrian construction company Strabag, with Citi upgrading the stock to buy from neutral
  • British stocks rally as data showed inflation in the UK slowed far more than expectations, driving European stocks closer to early 2022 record, with landlords leading the advance
  • Indivior gains as much as 4.5% after settling a drug patent dispute with rival Actavis, which now is granted a license to the patent that would enable Actavis to launch a generic variant
  • Ionos gains for a ninth day as Morgan Stanley says the webhosting firm has delivered “two early Christmas presents” in strong guidance on Tuesday and last week’s debt refinancing.
  • Argenx shares plunge as much as 35% after its key drug Vyvgart (efgartigimod) failed another trial, a second setback in less than a month for the Brussels-listed biotech firm
  • DS Smith falls as much as 2.8% after UBS downgraded the paper and packaging company to neutral from buy, saying the downgrade reflects weaker containerboard prices
  • Inficon shares fell as much as 5.3%, the most in two months, after the Swiss vacuum instruments manufacturer was downgraded to reduce from add at Baader Helvea
  • Resurs Holding drops as much as 8.3% after SEB Equities downgrades the retail finance company to sell from hold, giving the stock its only negative analyst rating

In FX, GBP/USD falls as much as 0.7% to below $1.27 after UK CPI data, EUR/USD down 0.3%; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is largely unchanged as the US currency’s gains versus European currencies are offset by its slide against the yen. The Japanese yen is the best performer among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.3% versus the greenback on false expectations that the BOJ will end its negative rate policy in the coming months which has supported the yen. The dollar has been struggling as investors seek more guidance from the Fed on how soon it will begin cutting rates next year as inflation slows; however Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the market may be getting ahead of itself when it comes to rate cuts.

“Speculative bets on a BOJ policy change are likely to ease for now,” said Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of financial markets in Tokyo at Standard Chartered Bank. “Markets price in deep Fed rate cuts, weighing on the dollar” against peers including the yen, he said

In rates, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury slips 4bps to 3.88%, its lowest since late July. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut rates by 150bps by the end of 2024, compared with around 140 bps on Tuesday. UK gilts rallied while the pound drops after data showed UK inflation slowed more than expected in November, fueling bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. UK two-year yields fall 15 basis points to 4.14%, a seven-month low.

In commodities, oil extended its recent rally amid prospects of more disruptions in the Red Sea, while the US weighs military strikes on Houthis. Brent jumped above $80 to a three week high. Brent March call options in the $90s were active again on Tuesday as traders continue to weigh the risks to traffic in the Red Sea. WTI’s second-month 25-delta put skew was the least bearish since mid-November. Brent’s prompt spread climbed to the strongest since Dec. 5, while its Dec.-Dec. spread was the firmest this month.

Bitcoin (+0.6%) and Ethereum (+1.2%) extended gains as BTC rose back over USD 43k. BlackRock, Nasdaq, SEC met regarding a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, via CoinDesk

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for December, existing home sales for November, and the Q3 current account balance. In the Euro Area, there’s the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for December, and there’s also the UK CPI and German PPI readings for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee and the ECB’s Lane.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,812.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 476.63
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 165.32
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 515.45
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 33,675.94
  • Topix up 0.7% to 2,349.38
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 16,613.81
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 2,902.11
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 70,636.67
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,537.88
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,614.30
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.99%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0961
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $79.87/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,041.67
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.26

Top Overnight News

  • Bond yields across the euro region fell on Wednesday as worsening economic data and slowing inflation underscored expectations for interest-rate cuts next year.
  • UK inflation slowed far more than economists forecast in November, a surprise that prompted traders to boost bets the Bank of England will soon have to abandon its higher-for-longer narrative on interest rates.
  • Attacks in the Red Sea linked to the Israel-Hamas war will cause shipping delays and drive up the price of goods, bringing a new inflation risk to the economy.
  • Jonathan Hoffman, John Bonello and Jonathan Tipermas share more than just similar first names. They’re the driving force behind a gigantic wager on government debt that’s been giving regulators sleepless nights.
  • Donald Trump is ineligible to serve as US president because of his actions inciting the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol, Colorado’s highest court found, in an unprecedented ruling that’s headed for the US Supreme Court.
  • Throngs of consultants wearing Western attire have become a common sight in the lobbies of Riyadh’s plushest hotels as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman embarks on a multi-trillion dollar plan to wean Saudi Arabia off oil. In recent months they’ve been joined by another cohort of besuited individuals: fund managers, keen to get an early foothold in the next big emerging-market growth story.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NEwsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positively following the tailwinds from Wall Street, although newsflow overnight was on the quieter side amid the pre-Christmas lull. ASX 200 saw its upside supported by the Energy and Metals sectors, whilst Tech lagged with shallower gains. Nikkei 225 surged as the index reacted to BoJ Governor Ueda's dovish press conference following the unchanged announcement yesterday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the former's gains spearheaded by large caps with US listings, including Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu. Mainland China was subdued after PBoC maintained its Loan Prime Rates as expected and despite more liquidity injections by the central bank.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC maintained its 1-year and 5-year LPRs at 3.45% and 4.20% respectively, as expected.
  • PBoC injected CNY 134bln through 7-day reverse repos at 1.80% and CNY 151bln via 14-day reverse repos at 1.95%; both rates maintained
  • The Japanese government is to raise its long-term interest rate estimate to 1.9% for FY24 from 1.1% in FY23, according to Nikkei.
  • Japanese Cabinet projects that income will increase more than prices in FY24, according to Nikkei.
  • State-backed developer China South City averts default on July 2024 note after consent from bondholders, according to SCMP.
  • RBNZ Governor Orr said interest rates are restricting spending and levels of core inflation remain too high, according to the Parliamentary hearing. He noted that Q3 GDP was surprisingly subdued, and inflation remains too high and the committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary surprises. He said the neutral interest rate is now 2.5%.
  • New Zealand DMO and fiscal update: gross bond issuance for four years to June 2027 now totals NZD 136bln, up from NZD 129bln in the budget. 2023/24 gross bond issuance increases to NZD 38bln from NZD 36bln in budget. Treasury sees GDP growth in Q4 23 and through 2024.
  • Japan is to draft an initial FY24 budget of JPY 112tln, via Kyodo News
  • Japanese government is to lower the scheduled sales of JGBs to market by 11.2% from FY23 plan to JPY 171tln in FY24/25, via Reuters citing a draft

European bourses, Eurostoxx50 (-0.2%), are marginally weaker having spent much of the morning the green; the FTSE 100 (+0.8%) outperforms post-UK CPI. European sectors are mixed with Energy outperforming lifted by gains in underlying Crude prices and Telefonica (+5%) helps lift Telecoms; Technology narrowly lags. US Equity Futures are lower across the board as the Santa Rally comes to a pause, ES (-0.2%); FedEx (-9.9%) extends losses in the pre-market post-earnings.

Top European News

  • ECB's Nagel says there is a high probability that the interest rate peak has been reached, according to t-online; would say to everyone who is speculating on an imminent interest rate cut: be careful, some people have already speculated.
  • France and Germany see an EU deal on fiscal rules on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Bank of France Survey: Expectations for inflation one year out ease to 3.5% in Q4 (prev. 4%); 3.5% increase in wages (prev. 3%)

FX

  • DXY propped up by the softer Pound and Euro, though with gains capped by upside in the Yen; within a 102.14-34 range.
  • The Pound is the G10 laggard post-CPI, falling to a session low of 1.2648.
  • EUR is weighed on by the firmer Dollar, with softer German PPI unhelpful for the Single-Currency while EUR/GBP action offers only marginal respite.
  • The Yen is the best performer amongst the G10s, paring back some of yesterday's BoJ's induced losses, but yet to test 143.00.
  • PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0966 vs exp. 7.1300 (prev. 7.0982)

Fixed Income

  • USTs are modestly higher in tandem with Gilts as markets await the US 20yr auction and further speak from Fed's Goolsbee.
  • Gilts outperforms after cooler-than-expected UK CPI, adding to dovish expectations for 2024; gapped higher by almost 100 ticks and thereafter eclipsed 103.00.
  • Bunds are bid in conjunction with Gilts and after its own softer Producer Prices metrics; German 10yr yield sub-2.0% for the first time since March.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent (+1.2%) are bid having spent the overnight session relatively indecisive; specifics have been light and largely led by geopolitical themes.
  • Spot Gold (-0.1%) resides on either side of the unchanged mark, holding on to the prior day's gains; Base metals are generally in the green, though with gains capped amid poorer sentiment in China overnight.
  • Intensive talks are underway on a potential second Gaza truce, via Reuters citing sources; envoys looking at which hostages could go free.

Geopolitics

  • US reportedly weighs whether to attack Houthis beyond defensive task force and possible strikes on Houthis in Yemen considered, according to Bloomberg sources; no decision made yet on striking Houthis. The US and its allies are considering possible military strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, in recognition that a newly announced maritime task force meant to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea may not be enough to eliminate the threat to the vital waterway. Planning is underway for actions intended to cripple the Houthis’ ability to target commercial ships by hitting the militant group at the source.
  • Israel is offering to pause the fighting in Gaza for at least one week as part of a new deal to get Hamas to release more than three dozen hostages, according to Axios sources.
  • Malaysia bans Israeli-based shipping firm Zim from its ports, with the ban set to take effect immediately, according to the Malaysian PM.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: Dec. MBA Mortgage Applications -1.5%, prior 7.4%
  • 08:30: 3Q Current Account Balance, est. -$196b, prior -$212.1b
  • 10:00: Nov. Home Resales with Condos, est. 3.78m, prior 3.79m
    • Nov. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -4.1%
  • 10:00: Dec. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 104.5, prior 102.0
    • Dec. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 138.2
    • Dec. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 77.8

DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

The relentless market rally has continued over the last 24 hours, with investors remaining confident that central banks will soon pivot towards rate cuts, despite the pushback from several officials over recent days. In fact, yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+0.59%) hit another 23-month high, which leaves the index less than 1% beneath its all-time closing peak back in January 2022. That also means t he index has now risen by +15.8% in less than two months, and we haven’t seen an advance that fast since March-May 2020, back when the S&P 500 was recovering from the initial Covid selloff. At the same time, sovereign bonds have continued to rally, and overnight the 10yr Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since July, at 3.91% .

This growing anticipation of rate cuts was supported by Richmond Fed President Barkin, who said that “If you’re going to assume that inflation comes down nicely, of course we would respond appropriately”. That helped push Treasury yields lower, and offered support for the idea that the Fed would cut rates if inflation fell, since otherwise it would mean that policy was becoming more restrictive in real terms. But we also had a more hawkish take from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that “there’s not going to be urgency for us to pull off our restrictive stance”, expecting only two rate cuts in 2024, rather than the three rate cuts that the median dot suggested. Both are voting members of the FOMC in 2024.

Against that backdrop, investors continued to price in a strong chance of a Fed rate cut by March, with the probability moving up from 75% to 83% yesterday. And it was the same story for the ECB, where the chance of a March cut rose from 35% to 49%, even as Latvia’s central bank governor said that “it is too early to declare victory over inflation” .

Those moves led to a s izeable rally in sovereign bonds in the European session. Yields on 10yr OATs (-8.5bps) fell to their lowest level since February, those on 10yr gilts (-4.3bps) fell to their lowest since April, and those on 10yr BTPs (-13.4bps) were at their lowest since December 2022. 10yr bund yields (-6.3bps) also fell back, although they were just above their closing level from Friday, at 2.01%. Over in the US, 10yr Treasury yields had traded nearly -4bps lower early on in the US session but were flat by the close (-0.1bps) at 3.93%, but overnight they’ve since fallen -2.4bps to 3.91%.

That growing conviction about rate cuts came despite some hawkish-leaning data that was released yesterday. For instance, Canada’s CPI print for November was stronger than expected, with headline CPI remaining at +3.1% (vs. +2.9% expected). Moreover, US housing starts also surprised on the upside, hitting a 6-month high in November as they rose to an annualised rate of 1.56m (vs. 1.36m expected). The release meant that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate rose another tenth yesterday, and it now sees US Q4 GDP expanding at an annualised +2.7% pace .

The prospect of faster growth alongside rate cuts proved supportive for equities, and the S&P 500 (+0.59%) advanced for the 8th time in the last 9 sessions. It was a broad-based advance, with 23 of the 24 S&P 500 industry group up on the day and both the FANG+ index (+0.51%) and the Dow Jones (+0.68%) reaching all-time highs. Small-cap stocks did particularly well on the day, and the Russell 2000 (+1.94%) surpassed its recent peak in July to close at its highest level since August 2022. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) closed at a 22-month high, with its YTD gain now standing at +12.27%.

That optimism has been echoed in Asia overnight, where most indices have seen a decent rally. That includes the KOSPI (+1.65%), the Nikkei (+1.51%) and the Hang Seng (+1.08%), although the CSI 300 (-0.50%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.42%) have seen an underperformance. That follows the move by Chinese banks to leave the 1yr and 5yr loan prime rate unchanged. Otherwise, US equity futures are broadly flat this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.03%.

Meanwhile in Japan, sovereign bond yields have continued to fall after the BoJ’s decision to leave its policy unchanged yesterday, with the 10yr JGB yield down a further -6.4bps overnight to its lowest since July, at 0.55%. As we were going to press yesterday, Governor Ueda said in the press conference that there “isn’t much likelihood of us suddenly announcing that we’ll raise rates a month in advance”, so that’s a different approach to other central banks like the Fed, who tend to signal their moves in advance. Looking forward, investors still see a serious probability that the BoJ will move away from their negative interest rate policy over the months ahead, and currently they price in a 39% chance of a shift in January, and a 75% chance of a move by April. This morning, the Japanese yen has stabilised against the dollar, strengthening +0.10% to trade at 143.69 per dollar as we go to press. However, Japanese banks have continued to lose ground amidst the continuation of low borrowing costs, and the TOPIX Banks Index (-0.19%) is on track to lose ground for a 5th consecutive session, and is currently at its lowest level since July .

In the commodity space, oil prices advanced yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.64% to $79.23/bbl and WTI up +1.34% to $73.44/bbl. The two oil benchmarks have risen by +8.2% and +7.0% respectively over the past week, with the main driver being the pause of much commercial shipping via the Red Sea in response to recent attacks and rising perceptions of geopolitical risks.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for December, existing home sales for November, and the Q3 current account balance. In the Euro Area, there’s the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for December, and there’s also the UK CPI and German PPI readings for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee and the ECB’s Lane.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/20/2023 - 08:15
Published:12/20/2023 7:36:21 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Threaten To Snap Win Streak; FedEx Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Wednesday ahead of key economic data. Shipping giant FedEx dived on weak earnings results. Published:12/20/2023 7:26:36 AM
[Markets] The Fed's Empire Of Speculation And The Echoes Of 1929 The Fed's Empire Of Speculation And The Echoes Of 1929

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don't depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is. They will unravel the excesses regardless of what we think, hope or deny.

The Federal Reserve has so completely normalized speculative excess that these extremes are no longer even recognized as extremes. Rather, they are simply "the way the world works." This Empire of Speculation is complex and plays out on multiple levels.

The primary mechanism is obvious to all: whenever the equity market falters, the Fed unleashes a flood tide of liquidity, i.e. fresh currency, that rushes into the market at the top--corporations, banks and financiers--because the Fed distributes the fresh liquidity solely into the top tier of market players.

The Fed's ability to conjure up liquidity in a variety of ways appears limitless: expand its balance sheet (QE), use the reverse repo market and bank reserves, launch new lending mechanisms, and so on.

The Fed has long relied on useful fictions to mask its agenda. One useful fiction is that the Fed is independent and apolitical. Despite being risibly shopworn, this mirth-inducing fiction is still dutifully trotted out by every Fed chairperson.

Another useful fiction is that the Fed's mandate focuses on promoting stable expansion of the economy, not the equity market. This masks the reality everyone knows and acts on, which is the market isn't a reflection of the economy, it is the economy.

This is why the Fed will pursue ever greater policy extremes to rescue the market from any decline and keep equity markets lofting higher: should the market falter, the economy will quickly follow, as the animal spirits of the market are now the primary engine of expansion.

The Fed's focus on inflating the equity markets entered a new phase of policy extremes in 2008, a phase that continues to this day. The Fed's willingness to "do whatever it takes" time and again has created a feedback loop that has expanded the influence of the market on the economy and the Fed's influence on the market, to the point that the market is now keyed to every Fed utterance and policy tweak.

The market rallies on the expectation of Fed pauses, Fed easing, Fed bank bailouts, and so on: every Fed action sparks a rally because everyone knows there are no limits on what the Fed will do to further inflate the equity market.

Speculative gains are not actually growth in the sense of increasing productivity and wages in the real economy. Much of what passes for "growth" is actually profiteering by corporate monopolies, corporate trickery (stock buybacks, etc.) that boost earnings per share without actually producing more goods, services or productivity, corporations reaping the gains of offshoring production, financiers using the Fed's flood tide of liquidity to skim gains while producing nothing, and so on.

This is not the "growth" generated by the expansion of productivity, it's a phony simulacra of "growth" generated by Fed-liquidity-driven skims and scams. The only possible outcome of this dynamic is the soaring concentration of wealth and income in the hands of those with access to the Fed's flood tide: the already-super-wealthy, which is exactly what has happened.

These dynamics have drawn the entire populace into the Fed's speculative casino. With the real economy's productivity stagnating, the only way to get ahead is to join the crowd in the casino. Everybody's playing, one way or another. In the 1929 analogy, every shoeshine boy and taxi driver was working a hot new speculation. Now it's every Uber jockey and delivery driver.

As we may soon rediscover, there is a limit on Fed policy extremes in support of ever-higher equities: inflation. The more liquidity the Fed pumps into unproductive speculation, the more it stokes inflation, which is driven by expanding the flood tide of currency and credit without actually boosting productivity.

Global scarcities, either contrived or the result of depletion, are another source of inflation the Fed can't control. A third source of inflation is investment that is required by factors other than boosting productivity, such as pollution remediation, reshoring of production, etc.

All three of these sources of inflation manifested in the 1970s, as I have often explained. Now they're manifesting again.

Denial doesn't negate system dynamics or history, but denial does offer the false solace of comforting illusions. And so speculators are piling in on the Pavlovian expectations that the Fed will push interest rates back to near-zero and continue to find new ways to unleash new flood tides of liquidity: Dow 100,000, indeed.

Except this time around, inflation will bite the Fed's head off and swallow it whole. And since we as a nation have compensated for stagnant productivity by borrowing tens of trillions of dollars in public and private debt, the Volcker Fed's policy of jacking rates high enough to suppress the expansion of currency will crush debtors large and small like cockroaches.

Economists love to discuss "Fed policy errors" in the 1920s, but they rarely mention the dominance of massively excessive debt and speculation, excesses that had to be unwound one way or another. Absent policies designed to deflate these unproductive excesses slowly, a stock market crash and tsunami of defaults were the only mechanisms available to mitigate the excesses.

Feeding speculative manias and relying on their permanent expansion as the foundation of economic "growth" is folly, and the only possible outcome is the unraveling of the Empire of Speculation.

The echoes of 1929 abound, but nobody's paying attention because speculative extremes have been normalized by 15 years of Fed policies. What speculative excess? This is just normal market functioning: the Fed hints at easing and the market soars to new highs.

The 1970s offers a roadmap of how belief in the omnipotence of the Fed and the permanence of Bull Markets fades. Every rally is assumed to be a new Bull Market, and it takes repeated losses to empty out the casino.

All speculation is inherently unproductive, and we've persuaded ourselves that getting rich from speculation is an excellent substitute for increasing productivity. But this is mere rationalization, a self-serving comforting illusion that is bound to unravel, either slowly or in a spectacularly unexpected fashion.

Unfortunately, we can't act on what we no longer even recognize. Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don't depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is. They will unravel the excesses regardless of what we think, hope or deny.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 12/20/2023 - 07:20
Published:12/20/2023 6:41:23 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Slip After Dow Hits New Highs U.S. stock markets were set for a slightly weaker open Wednesday as investors gauged whether the recent stock rally inspired by the Federal Reserve can continue. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures slipped and Nasdaq Composite futures were down 0.2%. Published:12/20/2023 3:25:13 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Waver as Dow Hits New Highs U.S. stock markets were set for a muted open Wednesday as investors gauged whether the recent stock rally inspired by the Federal Reserve can continue. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 1 point, or less than 0.1%. The Dow reached its fifth consecutive record close on Tuesday, with hopes for interest-rate cuts still powering market gains. Published:12/20/2023 3:11:28 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 12/19/2023 Wall Street closed higher and held near all-time highs amid hopes that moves by Japan’s central bank to keep interest rates easy for investors could be a preview for the rest of the world. The Dow rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was one of the world’s biggest winners after its central bank decided to keep its benchmark rate below zero in hopes of encouraging more borrowing and spending. Published:12/19/2023 3:33:17 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Industrial Average On Track For 9th Straight Gain; Is It Time To Buy These 'Dogs Of The Dow'? The Dow Jones Industrial Average lifted into new-high territory again as the bulls continued their reign in the stock market today. Walgreens, up 2.7% for the week, still trades 35% below a 52-week high and 73% off an all-time peak of 97.30. Is it time, as some market pundits suggest, to buy the dogs of the Dow? Published:12/19/2023 2:41:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Microsoft, Netflix In Buy Zones In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones tech titan Microsoft and streaming giant Netflix join these two leaders in or near buy zones in today's stock market rally. Published:12/19/2023 1:56:24 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Rally Continues As Dow Jones Sets Another Record; S&P Hits New Mark Major indexes added to their December rally in morning action on the stock market Tuesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 100 points and reached another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% in recent trades, while the Nasdaq composite also climbed 0.5 %. The S&P 500 added 0.4% in the stock market today and hit a new 52-week high. Published:12/19/2023 10:02:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Extends Winning Streak; Netflix Among 7 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Tuesday after key economic data. Netflix stock is among the best stocks to buy and watch in today's market. Published:12/19/2023 8:40:30 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Extend Their Winning Streak; Netflix Among 7 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of key economic data. Netflix stock is among the best stocks to buy and watch in today's market. Published:12/19/2023 7:35:40 AM
[Markets] 2024 Markets: The End Of A Crappy Year, The Beginning Of A Worse One 2024 Markets: The End Of A Crappy Year, The Beginning Of A Worse One

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

This will not be short, but hopefully simple.

No one likes hard macro facts, especially at holiday parties, so I’ll sip my champagne in silence and share my views here instead.

Powell: From Hawk to Dove to Jive Turkey in 30 Days

So, hawkish Powell is now talking about dovish rate cuts in 2024.

Powell, however, is neither a hawk nor dove but more of a jive turkey or, in the spirit of Christmas, a cooked goose.

The sad but simple fact of the matter is that our Fed Chairman, like so many of the so-called “experts,” has a genuine problem with admitting failure or speaking honestly—which is why I recommended long ago to bet against the experts

Looming Rate Cuts? No Surprise at All

For any who have been following my blunt views on US debt markets, bond volatility, interest rate gyrations and Fed-speak vs. Fed-honesty (our first oxymoron), this pivot toward rate cuts should come as zero surprise.

ZERO.

As indicated many times, rising rates break things, and so many things have broken (banks, Gilts, USTs, the middle class…) that even Powell can’t deny this anymore.

Powell, as wrote earlier this year, has only been raising rates so that when the denied recession that we are already in becomes an official 2024 recession according to the always too-late NBER, at least the Fed will have something to cut.

Powell, of course, is a politician, and like all politicians, has learned the art of bending truth to straighten his career and legacy.

It’s The Recession, Stupid

But even Powell, despite all his rhetoric on (mis) hitting target inflation via his pseudo-Volcker-esque profile of “higher-for-longer,” always knew (and still knows) that America is already in a hard-landing recession thirsty for cheaper rates and even more debt…

The evidence of this recession, as I’ve said, is literally everywhere—from classic economic indicators like the yield curve (inverted), the Conference Board of Leading Indicators (dipped below 4% threshold last December) and a dramatic 4% decrease in the M2 money supply (inherently deflationary), to basic Main Street indicators like record-breaking bankruptcy filings, ongoing lay-offs, equally record-breaking car and credit card delinquencies—all encapsulated by the Oliver Anthony Indicator.

Debt-Rollovers Needed Lower Rates

But there are more reasons these rate cuts are of no surprise…

Never forget this: The Fed serves Wall Street (and capital gain taxes), not Main Street. And Wall Street is screaming for help.

The over-valued and cheap-credit-addicted S&P 500 (led by 7 names only) is riddled with countless zombie enterprises staring down the barrel of $740B in debt rollovers in 2024, and another $1.2T in 2025—all at currently Powell-higher rates.

That is a problem.

And Uncle Sam is looking at 30% of his $34T in IOUs (about $17T worth) re-pricing over the next 36 months at equally higher, Powell-driven rates.

That too is a problem.

And as I warned: Rates would have to be cut to avoid a market bloodbath and sovereign bond debt trap.

Et voila—here comes Powell announcing rate cuts. Real shocker…

A Mug’s Game

Does such foresight make me/us psychic? Blessed with mystical powers?

Hardly.

Predicting any near-term move in the markets or even in the minds of a Fed official (which are essentially now the same thing), is indeed a mug’s game.

No one can pick the day, hour or even month of a watershed move.

But for those who follow deficits, debt markets and hence bond dysfunction, the signals (i.e., basic math) can offer pretty sound ideas of what’s coming.

Such instincts are nothing radical or genius, but boil down to common sense, something most of us own. You know, like how most of us reach for an umbrella on a cloudy day—because, well: Clouds warn of rain ahead.

What the Storm Clouds (and Debt Bubbles) Portend

The clouds we’ve been tracking in the bond markets were easy to see for everyone willing to open their eyes–except perhaps for politicians, who prefer to keep their well-made heads buried in the sand.

For months and months, we’ve been pounding our patient little fists that debt actually matters, and hence by extension, bond markets actually matter.

With this simple, (i.e., common sense) premise in mind, we thus had very little long-term faith in the short-term words or policies of our fork-tonged and financially-trapped central bankers about “higher for longer.”

Like Luke Gromen, and frankly even Charles Calomiris of the St. Louis Fed, we saw (and warned over and over and over) that the cost of Uncle Sam’s own IOUs under Powell’s “higher-for-longer” meme-war against inflation would fail.

Why?

For the simple reason that rising debt costs would force the Fed to reduce rates and eventually print more money just to pay for Uncle Sam’s True Interest Expense.

That’s called “Fiscal Dominance.”

In short, and despite all of Powell’s rate-hiking and chest-puffing, we saw a rate pause, as well as rate cuts, as effectively inevitable.

As warned, Powell then paused the rate hikes. And now, as 2023 winds toward a disastrous end, he is talking of rate cuts for 2024.

Again: Hardly a shocker. And here’s why.

Hitting a Wall of Fiscal Dominance

When official (as opposed to honest) CPI inflation falls while interest rates (as best measured by the yield on the unloved 10Y UST) rise, then “real” (i.e. inflation-adjusted) rates go positive and north.

And when real rates approach 2%, this means debt becomes really painful for companies, individuals, and, of course, broke governments like the U.S.

The rest of the world knows this too, which is why central banks have been dumping Uncle Sam’s unloved USTs (red line) and stacking gold (blue line), as they’d rather own real money than a declining asset from a bad credit.

This global dumping of USTs pushed bond prices down and hence yields and rates up, which meant Uncle Sam’s interest payments only got worse—i.e. $1T a year.

That stings.

And even poor old Janet Yellen, having slithered from a position as Fed Chair to Treasury Secretary (how’s that for insider power?) realized there was a real problem with Powell’s rate hikes.

As she confessed just last week: “Rising real rates may impact Fed decision on rate path.”

Well, as we seasoned bond experts say on Wall Street: “Duh.”

Meanwhile, the Financial Media Gets It All Wrong: The Truth About US Bonds

But despite this moment of “duh,” the main stream financial media, which like all media, has simply devolved into a propaganda arm of a centralized government with a weaponized Dollar and a “puppet-ized” president, tried to tell the world that November was a banner month for Uncle Sam’s bonds, which saw its best month in 40 years.

This, they boasted, was proof that America’s IOUs were loved IOUs.

As usual, however, just about everything the mainstream media says is approximately 180 degrees from the facts and hence truth…

November’s historical yield compression and bond price rise, for example, was not the result of resurging natural demand, but rather a spike in un-natural DC intervention at its best and most desperate.

For the fifth time in four years, and reminiscent of the already forgotten Treasury General Account tricks of last October, the Fed and US Treasury Department were hard at work at trickery hiding in plain sight.

That is, panicking central planners saw a need for liquidity that wasn’t coming from the rest of the world.

They thus saved the 10Y UST from an over-supply sky-fall by simply over-issuing more bonds from the short end of the yield curve to buy time.

And at the same time DC was shuffling risk from the 10Y to the 2Y UST, they got even more clever by sucking liquidity out of the Treasury General Account to the monthly tune of $150B to keep bond yields from spiking out of the Fed’s increasingly weakening control.

And that, folks, is what made November an historical month: Not a natural rebirth of global demand for Uncle Sam’s IOUs, but a series of loosening tricks wherein DC drinks its own expensive Kool aide and calls it a national victory.

But if, according to consensus, November was such a Fed and bond victory, why is the December version of a once-hawkish Powell now talking dovishly about more rate cuts in 2024?

From Fake Victory to Open Decline: No Good Options Left at the Fed

The simple answer is because America is not in a period of victory, but one of open and obvious decline clear to everyone but the word-heavy yet math-challenged media, the deficit-popular-politicos and the cornered central-bankers.

And boy do I mean cornered.

Why?

Because as warned month after month, debt destroys nations and hence corners central planners, who have nothing but bad options to address very bad math.

That is, if they don’t cut rates and print more fake money, risk assets tank and the economy falls with it into a hard recession.

But if central bankers loosen policy to save the system, they kill the currency’s inherent purchasing power, which is precisely what Powell will do next—as all broke nations sacrifice their money to cover their butts

Very Scary Math

To keep this sensational but all too sad point real, just consider the facts rather than the drama of a nation whose debt profile makes growth impossible.

Current US debt to GDP has crossed the Rubicon of 100% well into the 120% range; our deficit to GDP is at 8% and rising; our Net International Investment Position (i.e., piggy bank of foreign assets) is at negative 65%; our public debt is at 34 TRILLION and counting, and according the Congressional Budget Office, Uncle Sam is about to spit out at least another $20T in US IOUs over the next 10 years, and this modest number (?) is assuming no intervening recession…

But who will buy Uncle Sam’s IOUs to cover his skyrocketing deficits?

According to simple math and hard facts, the answer since 2014 is basically no one but the Fed…

Such facts have the global chief economist at Citi Group worried and wondering, and it’s never a good thing when even the beneficiaries of a Fed-driven debt bubble are worried about the size of that bubble…

Meanwhile, combined public, corporate and household debt in the debt-imprisoned land of the free is around $100T.

I don’t even know how to write this number out, but I can assure you that no one in DC knows how to pay it either.

This, of course, is a problem…

Collateral Debt Damage—The Dollar, Inflation, Markets Etc.

All of this debt, alas, brings us to the corollary topics of inflation and the next chapters of the USD, because debt and currencies, like just about everything else, including risk assets, are all connected and inter-twined.

That is, if one understands debt, one can see the patterns of broader markets—past, present and future.

The USD: Relative Strength Aint Enough

When it comes to the USD, let’s not kid ourselves: The world still needs it. 70% of global GDP is measured in USDs and 80% of global trade is settled in Dollars.

And as Brent Johnson’s milkshake theory reminds, there is a great big straw (“sucking sound”?) of global demand for USDs coming from Euro Dollar markets, derivative markets and oil markets.

I agree that this super straw (or better yet, global “sponge”) is enormously powerful, and hence the need for Dollar liquidity is a massive tailwind for the USD.

But… this massive tailwind is not an immortal tailwind.

De-Dollarization: More Than Many Think

Evidence of increasing de-dollarization post-US-Russia sanctioning (and Dollar-weaponization) is not merely a bearish meme but an open and undeniable reality.

China and Russia are moving ever more toward oil purchases in CNY (which Russia then converts into gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange/SGE) while an exponentially increasing number of bilateral trade agreements among the BRICS+ nations are now happening OUTSIDE of the USD.

Just as Nixon’s de-coupling of the gold-standard in 1971 lead to a slow death by a thousand cuts of the USD’s inherent purchasing power (a 98% loss when measured against gold), the weaponization of the USD will lead to a similar (but slow) death by a thousand cuts of the USD’s global hegemony (when measured against a world turning away from the debt-backed rather than gold-backed USD).

We warned of this from day 1 of the sanctions against Russia.

A Supreme Dollar Losing Respect

For now, however, the USD is still supreme, but unlike Brent Johnson, I don’t see even its relative strength pushing the DXY to 150.

This is for the simple reason that even Uncle Sam knows that the rest of his global friends and enemies can’t afford to pay-back $14T in Dollar-denominated debt at such a level without having to dump more of their foreign held USTs (about $7.6T worth), which would crush UST pricing and lead to skyrocketing (and unsustainable) UST yields and rates for Uncle Sam himself.

In short: Even Uncle Sam fears rising rates and a too-strong USD.

Such a fear of rising rates along with the reality of growing US deficits (and hence a growing need for more US IOUs) will soon lead to an over-supply/issuance of USTs down the road.

And the only buyers of those USTs to control yields/rates will be the Fed, not the rest of the world (See graph above…).

That kind of bond buying with money created out of thin air kills a currency.

No Milkshake Straw for USTs = Mega Money Printing Ahead

Thus, while the milkshake theory correctly sees immortal global demand for USDs, there is no similar straw (or demand) for USTs.

This means the Fed will have to print trillions of more Dollars to buy its own sovereign bonds, an inherently inflationary policy which weakens rather than strengthens the Dollar longer term.

This is why Powell’s “pause,” and now “cutting” in 2024 will eventually be followed, in my opinion, by “mega printing.”

After all, “pause, cut and print” is the pattern of debt- cornered central bankers, and eventually (despite TGA and short-duration bond tricks) Powell will need massive amounts of mouse-click money to monetize Uncle Sam’s sickening (and growing) deficits.

We saw this exact pattern between 2018 (QT) and 2020 (unlimited QE).

The end-game is thus more money creation, more money debasement and hence more inflation.

But First the Deflation

But before then, we are marching into an “official” recession in 2024, and recessions are inherently dis-inflationary if not outright deflationary.

Again, the inflation-deflation debate is not a debate but a cycle.

Historically, moreover, the dramatic declines in M2 ALWAYS result in deflation. Always.

And More Risk Asset Bubbles?

As for our stock and bond bubbles, they certainly like cheaper debt (i.e., lower rates) and mouse-clicked trillions (i.e., QE).

For now, markets are expecting (pricing in) the former and waiting for the latter, which can and will make them giddy.

With about 25% of US GDP sitting in cash equivalents, Powell’s 2024 projected rate cuts will send a lot of that money into the market bubbles, sending asset inflation even higher, which means more needed tax revenues for Uncle Sam.

If the DXY stays low, markets will rise. And if the Fed is accommodative, markets will rise. This includes BTC.

It’s just that simple: Tight policies are a market headwind, loose policies are a market tailwind.

This is because capitalism died long ago and the Fed is essentially the de facto market-maker for the S&P, Dow & NASDAQ.

But trying to determine, or time, how long this charade of Fed-driven asset bubbles can avoid a sickening moment of mean-reversion is the topic of another article.

Gold: The Brightest Star on the Tree

Gold, of course, merely sits back and patiently watches all these debt forces—and hence inflationary and currency debates/reactions–with a calm smile.

Why?

Well, gold loves chaos, and thanks to decades and decades of policy makers who believed they could solve one debt crisis after the next (think Paul Krugman) with more debt, the financial/recessionary chaos (as per above) is literally everywhere.

Thus, even when rates are officially positive, gold reached record highs, despite my own argument that gold loves negative real rates.

And even with a relatively strong USD and DXY, gold has reached record highs, despite the standard view that gold favors a weak USD.

And even with yields spiking, gold has reached record highs, despite another common misconception that investors prefer higher-yielding bonds over zero-yielding “pet rocks.”

Gold, in other words, follows more than just conventional indicators. It has a profile, life and history of its own, one which few investors understand unless their aim is solvency and wealth preservation.

In fact, the easiest way to understand gold is that it’s more loyal than paper money.

Despite all the endless debating, and all the spot-price manipulationsin the OTC markets and all the crypto comparisons and fiat-money apologists, the fact is that informed investors, like a growing list of informed countries, just don’t trust the US, its bonds or its fiat-Dollar like they used do.

They’d rather have gold:

And in the years ahead, they’ll get a fairer gold price on the SGE than in London or New York, which means the West will soon have to behave on actual supply and demand principles rather LBMA bank price manipulations…

Iconic America has devolved from a gold-backed currency and the world’s leading creditor, manufacturer and trade partner to a debt-soaked America with a gold-welched-dollar and is now the world’s biggest debtor, weakest manufacturer and open loser to a trade war with China.

This is hardly a proud evolution from its Greatest Generation…

In short, the iconic America is no more, and there’s a far better Sharpe Ratio in gold than there is in topping risk portfolios…

Like it or not, believe it or not: Gold is rising because the home of the world reserve currency with its shining façade of free market price discovery has lost its way, replacing capitalism with feudalism and altruistic leadership with egotistic opportunism.

If WE know this. So too does gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/19/2023 - 07:20
Published:12/19/2023 7:01:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Hit New Highs; These Magnificent Seven Stocks Race Higher Dow Jones futures: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs Monday, as Magnificent Seven stocks Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia raced higher. Published:12/19/2023 7:01:51 AM
[Markets] A New Bull Market Is Here for the Dow Jones. Here Are the 3 Best Dow Stocks to Buy for 2024. These Dow stocks could be big winners in the new year. Published:12/19/2023 5:01:24 AM
[Markets] The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight ETF, Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF, ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF and ProShares UltraPro Dow30 SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight ETF, Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF, ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF and ProShares UltraPro Dow30 are included in this Analyst Blog. Published:12/19/2023 4:41:22 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Netflix Clears Entry; Cathie Wood Buys This Soaring Stock, Sells Bitcoin Plays The Dow Jones rose. Cathie Wood snapped up a stock on a strong run but sold Bitcoin stocks. Netflix stock cleared a buy point but Apple fell. Published:12/18/2023 4:57:42 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall Street ends higher, extending rate-cut rally U.S. stocks gained ground on Monday as market participants parsed mounting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. A broad but modest rally boosted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to solid gains, while the Dow ended flat. "Markets are heading in the direction of the Fed beginning to cut interest rates next year," said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. Published:12/18/2023 3:39:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Adobe Pops; Cathie Wood Snaps Up This Stock On 65% Run, Sells Bitcoin Plays The Dow Jones gained as other indexes rose. Cathie Wood snapped up a stock amid a powerful run. And Adobe rose as a deal crumbled. Published:12/18/2023 3:04:09 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St builds on rally as Fed euphoria lingers U.S. stocks advanced on Monday as market participants parsed mounting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground in a broad but modest rally, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advancing the most and the Dow inching toward yet another all-time closing high, posting nominal gains. Wall Street continues to build on seven straight weeks of gains, the S&P 500's longest weekly winning streak since 2017, fueled by optimism of policy rate cuts in 2024, a fervor that Fed policy makers attempted to rein in on Monday. Published:12/18/2023 1:55:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones At Record Highs; Tesla Rival Wins $2 Bil Deal As Apple Responds To Ban Dow Jones continued to rise to record highs after economic data Monday. Tesla rival Nio surged on a new investment. Nike, Micron earnings loom. Published:12/18/2023 12:11:32 PM
[Markets] Tech Stocks Lead Gains Monday The stock market is gaining Monday, with technology shares leading the way higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 39 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 0. Published:12/18/2023 11:56:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Record Highs After Economic Data; Tesla Rival Wins $2 Bil Deal Dow Jones continued to rise to record highs after economic data Monday. Tesla rival Nio surged on a new investment. Nike, Micron earnings loom. Published:12/18/2023 10:11:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Key Housing Data; Netflix Stock Is Breaking Out Today The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Monday after key housing data. Netflix stock is breaking out today past a new buy point. Published:12/18/2023 9:17:29 AM
[Markets] Stocks Are Rising After Another Strong Week The stock market is pushing higher after it closed out a strong week Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite has advanced 0.2%. The market is confident that the economy can continue to grow as the Federal Reserve potentially moves towards cutting interest rates from hiking them. Published:12/18/2023 8:49:10 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Housing Data; Tesla Stock Hits Buy Point Dow Jones futures rose Monday ahead of key housing data. Tesla stock hit a new buy point last week and is in buy range. Published:12/18/2023 8:22:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Marks 7th Straight Weekly Gain As Boeing Stock Jumps; DocuSign Surges On Takeover Chatter The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite extended their weekly win streaks to seven on a quadruple-witching Friday. Published:12/15/2023 3:42:42 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Near Highs As Boeing Stock Jumps; DocuSign Surges On Takeover Chatter The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite were on pace for their seventh straight weekly gain on quadruple-witching Friday. Published:12/15/2023 2:23:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Flat While Nasdaq Keeps Climbing; Costco Hits All-Time High The stock market showed mixed results early Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased off record highs. Published:12/15/2023 10:36:27 AM
[Markets] Why Are Tech Stocks Up—and the Dow Down—Today? Technology stocks are in the green Friday, bucking the broader trend. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 40 points, or 0.1% and the S&P 500 is flat 0.1%. Tech stocks had underperformed Thursday, but analysts expect many of the mega-sized tech companies to grow earnings faster than the S&P 500 over the next couple of years. Published:12/15/2023 10:00:13 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed as Dow tries to keep record streak going The Dow is looking to notch another record in the wake of the Fed's pivot away from its 'higher for longer' interest-rate approach. Published:12/15/2023 9:17:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Amid Key Economic Data; Costco Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Friday amid key economic data, as the stock market hit more new highs. Costco stock rallied on earnings. Published:12/15/2023 8:07:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Keep Rising Ahead Of Economic Data; Costco Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Friday ahead of key economic data, as the stock market hit more new highs. Costco stock rallied on earnings. Published:12/15/2023 7:23:28 AM
[Markets] Futures gain as rate-cut cheer persists The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, acknowledging slowing inflation and indicated lower borrowing costs were on the horizon, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to notch its second straight record high close on Thursday. Money markets see a 79% chance of at least a 25-basis point rate cut as soon as March 2024, up from about 50% before Wednesday's policy announcement, while almost fully pricing in another cut in May 2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Published:12/15/2023 5:13:42 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian markets churn upward after the Dow ticks to another record high Asian shares powered higher on Friday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record on excitement that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates several times next year. Troubled developer Country Garden's shares jumped 5.1%, while China Evergrande gained 2.2% and Sino Ocean Holding surged 6.8%. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that factory output rose 6.6% in November and retail sales were up more than 10%, glimmers of improvement for the economy after the post-COVID recovery faded much more quickly than expected. Published:12/15/2023 1:51:05 AM
[Markets] Stocks Close Higher. The Dow Hits Second Consecutive Record High The stock market ended the day in the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at its second consecutive all-time high. The Dow gained 158 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0. Published:12/14/2023 3:18:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Pares Gains Amid 'Goldilocks' Set Up; Moderna Soars On Cancer Vaccine Dow Jones rose to new highs after retail sales beat views while initial unemployment claims came in lower than expected. Moderna soared. Published:12/14/2023 2:41:48 PM
[Markets] S&P 500 clings to gain, Nasdaq turns negative and Dow hits pause on record-setting rally U.S. stocks are pulling back from session highs after Dow Jones carves out a fresh record. Published:12/14/2023 12:57:00 PM
[Markets] Tech Stocks Dip, Giving Up Earlier Gains Technology stocks are giving up earlier gains and falling into the red Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.2% after having spent much of the day in the green. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 81 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 has advanced 0.1%. Published:12/14/2023 12:47:47 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies After Surprise Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones rallied Thursday after a surprise drop in initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock dived on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 9:25:03 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials continue higher Thursday after Powell-inspired record close Dow industrials continue higher Thursday after Powell-inspired record close Published:12/14/2023 9:19:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Keep Surging Ahead Of Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 7:17:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Market Rally Runs On Fed Rate-Cut Shift; What To Do Now Futures rose Thursday as Treasury yields tumbled, after the Dow Jones hit a record high on Fed rate-cut forecasts. Here's what to do now. Adobe fell late on guidance. Published:12/14/2023 6:11:48 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly higher after the Dow hits a record high, US dollar falls Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Thursday after a powerful rally across Wall Street sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high as the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rate cuts are likely next year. The European Central Bank and Bank of England were expected to keep their interest rate policies unchanged, as were the central banks of Norway and Switzerland. In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell as the yen gained sharply against the U.S. dollar, since a weaker dollar can hit the profits of Japanese exporters when they are brought back to Japan. Published:12/14/2023 2:39:21 AM
[Markets] RPT-US STOCKS-Dow ends at record high as Fed signals lower borrowing costs in 2024 The Dow Jones industrial average hit its first record closing high since January 2022 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied more than 1% each on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that its interest rate-hiking policy is at an end and that it sees lower borrowing costs in 2024. In its policy statement, the Fed also left interest rates steady, as expected, and a near-unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials projected that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:24:36 PM
[Markets] : Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swept to a record close on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled a pivot to rate cuts could be in store for 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Hits Record High As Fed Sees Three Rate Cuts, Markets Bet On Six. Adobe Falls Late. The Dow hit a record high Wednesday as the Fed forecast three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are even more dovish. Adobe fell late on guidance. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Powell "Pivots", Sends Dow To Record High With Election-Year Rate-Cut Projection Powell "Pivots", Sends Dow To Record High With Election-Year Rate-Cut Projection

Did Powell get a 'Biden-esque' tap on the shoulder?

The Dow hit a new record high after The Fed signaled - via its 'dot plot' - that it has pivoted from a pause, dovishly delivering what the market was pricing in (and Powell didn't even get close to trying to walk back the exuberance)...

Fed Chair Powell said absolutely nothing about the massive easing of financial conditions (the tightening of which was the reason for them to pause at the September meeting).

Source: Bloomberg

And then pivoted to a major rate-cut trajectory for 2024 (election year).

  • In Sept, 5 Fed members expected three cuts or more

  • In Dec, 11 Fed members expect three cuts or more.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, Powell explained, when asked about the election year:

"We don't think about political events, we just can't do that" as he frontloads rate-cuts (from 2025) ahead of 2024 presidential elections.

As The Fed shifted dovishly towards the market, the market shifted even more dovishly - now pricing in 150bps of rate-cuts in 2024 (an election year) - bringing forward the cuts from 2025 (a non-election year)...

Source: Bloomberg

However, amid all the excitement, on a real rate basis, The Fed's policy restriciveness will be basically unchanged by the end of next year IF their inflation and rate forecasts are met

Bonds ripped higher (in price) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -27bps, 30Y -12bps)

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield plunged over 30bps from the intraday highs - the largest daily drop since the SVB crisis in March. Other than that, you have to go back to the GFC (2008) to see moves like this...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, 10Y Yields tumbled to 4.00% and found support there (which stalled stocks)...

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) massively bull-steepened...

Source: Bloomberg

Is 4.00% 10Y the 'fear' level that prompts equity bulls to lose faith in the soft-landing/goldilocks narrative? Stocks were on a roll though and closed near their highs with Small Caps up 3.5% and the rest of the majors up around 1%

The Fed triggered the biggest stock-buying program since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

This was the second biggest short-squeeze in stocks since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

The Magnificent 7 stocks did not exuberantly participate in the yield-collapse the way you think they should have...

Source: Bloomberg

But retail faves are #winning...

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, over in Homebuilder fantasy-land - new highs as the housing market collapses 'because, hey, The Fed will slash rates next year, right'... except the only thing that will drive that kind of a massive sudden rate cut is a massive sudden recession... which is not good for homebuilders...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar puked to late November lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped up towards $43,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared over $40, back above $2,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied (WTI back above $69) but were relatively subdued compared to the rest of markets...

Finally, VIX remains extremely low, but, as Goldman highlighted today, it should be 5-8 points higher based on recent economic data...

As they said: We believe that index options prices are much lower than they should be; however, volatility tends to decline at this time of the year, making it difficult to recommend buying VIX.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/13/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/13/2023 3:24:33 PM
[Markets] Dow notches first record close in almost two years as Fed signals lower rates The Dow ended up 1.40% at 37,090.24 points. Wall Street surged after the Fed held interest rates steady, with a near-unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials projecting that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024. While most U.S. stock investment funds benchmark their performance against the S&P 500 , the Dow is widely followed by Main Street investors. Published:12/13/2023 3:24:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Soars XXX Points to Record Closing High The Dow Jones Industrial Average sprinted to a new record closing high after the Federal Reserve announced its latest monetary policy decision. The Dow gained 513 points, or 1.4% to close at 37090. The S&P 500 rose 1. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Published:12/13/2023 2:52:49 PM
[Markets] UPDATE 1-Dow industrials hit intraday record high on rate optimism The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first record high since January 2022 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. The Dow was up 1.12% at 36,986.89 points. Ending Wednesday's session at its current level would also mark the Dow's first-record high close since January 2022, and would confirm that it has been in a bull market since tumbling more than 20% through its closing low in September 2022, according to a common definition. Published:12/13/2023 2:39:57 PM
[Markets] Dow Reaches 37000, an Intraday Record High The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an intraday record high. The index is up 472 points, or 1.3% to 37049 at last check, reaching over 37000 for the first time. It’s up just a little less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which have gained about 1. Published:12/13/2023 2:17:54 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise After Fed Holds Rates Steady The stock market is maintaining its gain after the Federal Reserve announced that it is holding rates steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 97 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Nasdaq has risen 03%. The Fed announced that it will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Published:12/13/2023 1:11:12 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat Ahead Of Fed; Magnificent Seven Mixed As Tesla Falls On Autopilot Flaw Dow Jones was flat ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Tesla fell while other Magnificent Seven stocks rose. Published:12/13/2023 11:24:18 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-US stocks inch up, Treasury yields dip ahead of Fed announcement U.S. stocks moved higher in muted trading and Treasury yields slipped on Wednesday as economic data affirmed inflation is cooling and investors bided their time ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were modestly higher while the Dow was essentially flat after notching 2023 closing highs in the previous session, while crude regained some ground in the wake of Tuesday's slide. Economic data showed U.S. producer prices (PPI) were unchanged in November, providing further evidence that inflation continues to meander down toward the Fed's average annual 2% target. Published:12/13/2023 10:22:12 AM
[Markets] This Market Is Skating on Very Thin Ice As discussed below, psychology data that have been historically prescient regarding indications of excessive bullish sentiment near market peaks have typically been followed by corrections of varying degrees. On the charts, the major equity indexes closed mixed Tuesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Transports rising as the rest posted losses. Also, the gains on the S&P, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 pushed their prices above their near-term resistance levels, leaving all in near-term bullish trends and lacking sell signals except for the Dow Transports staying neutral. Published:12/13/2023 9:53:08 AM
[Markets] Nasdaq moves higher as S&P and Dow straddle the flat line early Wednesday Nasdaq moves higher as S&P and Dow straddle the flat line early Wednesday Published:12/13/2023 9:06:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next The Dow Jones fell after more key inflation data Wednesday. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 8:44:16 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Hold Gains After PPI Inflation Data The stock market is gaining after the increase in producer prices came in below expectations. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 39 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were rising 0.1% and futures tracking the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%. The producer price index for November rose at a 0.9% annual rate, versus estimates of 1% and lower than October’s 1.2% gain. Published:12/13/2023 7:51:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose after more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:43:56 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose ahead of more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:37:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures were little changed after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 5:15:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures rose slightly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 4:00:50 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures tilted higher after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 3:54:48 PM
[Markets] IBM, Nike, Amgen and Salesforce are catalysts as Dow industrials pivot to gain IBM, Nike, Amgen and Salesforce are catalysts as Dow industrials pivot to gain Published:12/12/2023 9:33:06 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones dropped Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 9:01:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Opens Flat After November Inflation Report Inflation came in lower than last month’s reading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has dropped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%. The consumer price index gained 3.1% year over year in November, in line with forecasts and down from 3.2% in October. Published:12/12/2023 8:42:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:43:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of the imminent CPI inflation report. AI giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:17:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Magnificent Seven Stocks Slide; AI Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings; CPI Next Dow Jones futures: The Magnificent Seven stocks tumbled Monday, with heavy losses in Nvidia and Tesla. The CPI inflation report is next. Published:12/11/2023 4:41:38 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 157 Points As Apple, Tesla Fall; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Clears Entry The Dow Jones rose even as Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. A Warren Buffett stock cleared an entry point. Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. Published:12/11/2023 3:39:40 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 12/11/2023 The Nasdaq composite rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. Major stock indexes are on a six-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 up 20% for the year. The Nasdaq composite rose 28.51 points, or 0.2%, to 14,432.49. Published:12/11/2023 3:26:37 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise, Notch New Highs for 2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 157 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2%. The indexes have notched impressive gains for the year, with the S&P 500 up more than 20%. Big Tech took the lead early in the year, as tech company earnings growth prospects have gotten even brighter on the back of opportunities related to artificial intelligence. Published:12/11/2023 3:20:07 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains As Macy's Rockets; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Offers Entry The Dow Jones rose as Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. A Warren Buffett stock has cleared an entry. Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. Published:12/11/2023 2:22:13 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow hit fresh yearly highs ahead of inflation data, Fed policy The S&P 500 and Dow advanced to a new annual high on Monday, although gains were modest ahead of major market catalysts this week that include inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, which will shape investor expectations on the path of interest rates. Increasingly market watchers believe the central bank is done with its interest rate hike cycle and could potentially cut rates in the first half of next year. Published:12/11/2023 1:55:19 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Tech Titan Apple, AI Giants Nvidia, Snowflake Near Buy Points In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones tech titan Apple, along with AI giants Nvidia and Snowflake, are in or near buy zones in today's stock market action. Published:12/11/2023 1:31:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Mixed Fed Pivot Views; Warren Buffett's Oil Stock Enters Big Deal As Macy's Surges On Bid To Go Private Dow Jones rose amid mixed views on when the Fed may start rate cuts. Macy's surged on a buyout offer, Occidental entered a huge private deal. Published:12/11/2023 10:24:43 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials start week off with continued advance; S&P 500, Nasdaq lag Dow industrials start week off with continued advance; S&P 500, Nasdaq lag Published:12/11/2023 9:09:44 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones fell Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 9:09:44 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Mixed to Begin a Busy Week The major stock indexes are mixed Monday as the market takes a breather from recent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 67 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. This comes after a Friday rally, a continuation of what has a been a 20% gain for the S&P 500 this year. Published:12/11/2023 8:45:25 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:39:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Flatten Out; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:24:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 7:52:03 AM
[Markets] 12 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Least In this piece, we will take a look at the 12 Dow stocks that billionaires really don’t like. If you want to skip our overview of the stock market and the Dow, then you can skip ahead to 5 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Least. Even though 2023 is ready to race away into the […] Published:12/10/2023 12:39:30 PM
[Markets] 12 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most In this piece, we will take a look at the 12 Dow stocks that billionaires like the most. If you don’t want to learn more about the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), its history, and recent performance, then skip ahead to 5 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most. In its current form today, the Dow […] Published:12/10/2023 12:22:02 PM
[Markets] Should You Buy the 3 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the Dow Jones? Should you buy the three highest-paying dividend stocks in the Dow Jones right now? Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) easily ranks at the top of our list. The retail and wholesale pharmacy giant's dividend yield currently stands at nearly 8.4%. Published:12/10/2023 4:57:54 AM
[Markets] Be Careful What You Wish For: This Event May Signal the Start of the 2024 Bear Market The past four years have been nothing short of a wild ride for Wall Street. Since this decade began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), have bounced back and forth between bear and bull markets in successive years. Currently, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are enjoying a major rally off of their 2022 bear market lows. Published:12/10/2023 4:14:08 AM
[Markets] Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week

Reality set in this week that the 'goldilocks' narrative is not compatible with the massive rate-cuts priced-in for next year.

As Goldman warned:

"...it may be hard to justify more than 75bp of cumulative easing without weaker growth. A recession could clearly motivate a much deeper easing cycle, but a high weight on that outcome is not consistent with other asset prices, or with our own central case.

...

For that reason, the market is moving into territory where we think it will become more difficult for US rates to rally unless the growth picture deteriorates more than we, and other markets, expect.”

Stocks mixed-ish, Bonds mixed-ish, Commodities down, Crypto up, & Dollar up as Rate-Cut hopes faded this week (from 140bps in 2024 to 112bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the macro side - it was all 'soft' with a little firming in 'hard' data: Inflation expectations (survey) down along with gasoline, Services (survey) data up, labor market mixed (JOLTS weak but unemployment lower), consumer sentiment (survey) soars, and geopolitical risk mixed (US pressures Israel for ceasefire but military action in Yemen looms).

Source: Bloomberg

Good news, bad news, no news; Didn't matter as stocks chopped around wildly squeezing and un-squeezing this week. Small Caps and Mega-Cap tech outperformed while The S&P managed to get green for the week but The Dow struggled all week...

Every time The Dow got green on the week, selling pressure hit...

A chaotic week for 'most shorted' stocks, crashing up and down like a whore's drawers...

Source: Bloomberg

After an ugly open on Monday, Magnificent 7 stocks soared 4.5% off the Monday lows, back up near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which meant hedge funds got it from both ends unable to escape from Friday's carnage...

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were the week's biggest losers while tech and discretionary outperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

We couldn't help but laugh at the surge in regional bank stocks - now back up near post-SVB highs - while their use of the expensive BTFP bailout facility at The Fed surged to a new record $122BN...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the week with the short-end underperforming. Only the long-bond managed to close the week higher in price (lower in yield)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which pushed the yield curve significantly flatter (more inverted). This was the biggest weekly flattening since Nov 2022 to its most inverted since Sept....

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged higher this week (after three straight weeks down) ...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all higher this week with Solana outperforming. BTC and ETH were each up around 13%...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped up to $44,000 (its highest since April 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum neared $2400 (its highest since May 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all lower with Silver clubbed like a baby seal, NatGas ugly, Oil & gold were sold, and copper was the least ugly horse in the glue factory...

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold fell back to $2000 today

Source: Bloomberg

Gold's outperformance pushed the gold/silver ratio back to the upper end of its range this year (from the lower end)...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied today, ending a 6-day losing streak. WTI found support at $70 (5-month lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, which comes first - the equity market collapse or global central bank balance sheet explosion?

Source: Bloomberg

Our money's on the former and then the latter and the two meeting in the middle before melting up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/08/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/8/2023 3:09:36 PM
[Markets] Stocks Search for Direction After Latest Data Stocks were vacillating between gains and losses on Friday as traders digested the latest set of economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0. Published:12/8/2023 11:39:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Firm Above 36,000 After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 11:02:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 140 Points After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 9:59:35 AM
[Markets] Stocks Turn Higher After Consumer Sentiment Data Stocks turned higher Friday as an upbeat reading on inflation expectations overshadowed a stronger-than-expected jobs report. After opening in negative territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered to gain 128 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Published:12/8/2023 9:41:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Higher On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed Friday on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 8:57:41 AM
[Markets] Stocks Fall, Yields Rise. The Labor Market Is Still Strong. Stocks were slipping at Friday’s open after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0. Published:12/8/2023 8:44:30 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Recover. Keep an Eye on the Open. Stocks pared some of their losses right before opening bell on Friday after traders digested details in the November jobs report. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% versus the 0.4% loss seen around 8:30 am Eastern time. Published:12/8/2023 8:24:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:48:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Imminent Jobs Report ; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning ahead of the imminent November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:08:18 AM
[Markets] U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record Published:12/7/2023 3:22:29 PM
[Markets] Stocks Got an AI Boost. S&P 500, Dow Ended Losing Streaks. Stocks notched gains on Thursday as investors flocked to AI-related stocks in droves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1. Published:12/7/2023 3:08:56 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As AMD Soars Amid AI Fever; These 3 Bill Ackman Stocks Are Near Entries The Dow Jones rallied. AMD stock popped amid an AI chip reveal. Some Bill Ackman stocks, including Google parent Alphabet, are near entries. Published:12/7/2023 2:56:06 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 Set to Snap Losing Streaks Stocks made a strong recovery mid-Thursday as bonds yields lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 88 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 had made its largest one-day gain since mid-November, moving up 0. Published:12/7/2023 1:36:08 PM
[Markets] Dow trails S&P 500 by most since 2000 The Dow's lack of exposure to the Magnificent 7 tech stocks has put it behind the S&P 500 in 2023. Published:12/7/2023 12:40:39 PM
[Markets] Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 look to snap three-day losing streak as Nasdaq leads U.S. stocks higher U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday after three days of losses for the Dow and S&P 500 as traders bet that the November jobs report due Friday could show continued moderation in the strength of the labor market. Published:12/7/2023 9:31:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs After Jobless Claims Rise; Google Stock Surges After Gemini AI Model The Dow Jones climbed Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. Google stock surged after unveiling its Gemini AI model. Published:12/7/2023 8:55:02 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Higher. Dow, S&P 500 Snap Losing Streaks. Stocks moved decisively higher Thursday, with implications of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates and the state of the U.S. labor market on investors' minds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 70 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up about 0.5%. Published:12/7/2023 8:49:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Reverse After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures reversed higher Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 8:12:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:35:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:23:30 AM
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