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[SCI-TECH] Bats with Covid-like viruses found in Laos: study

Scientists have discovered another clue to the origins of the virus that causes Covid-19, with bats living in caves in Laos found to be carrying a similar pathogen that experts suggest could potentially infect humans directly.

The virus has killed millions since it emerged in China in late 2019, and controversy continues to swirl around where it came from.

Some experts say it is animal-driven but others have pointed to the possibility the pathogen leaked from a lab.

Researchers from France’s Pasteur Institute and the National University of Laos said their findings showed that viruses genetically close to the SARS-CoV-2 virus “exist in nature” among bat species in the limestone caves of northern Laos, which neighbours China.

Of the viruses they identified among the hundreds of bats tested in Vientiane Province, three were found to closely resemble the virus that causes Covid-19, particularly in the mechanism for latching on to human cells.

“The idea was to try to identify the origin of this pandemic,” Marc Eloit, who leads the Pasteur Institute’s pathogen discovery laboratory, told AFP.

Eloit, whose team analysed the samples collected, said there were still key differences between the viruses found and SARS-CoV-2.

But he said the work was “a major step forward” in identifying the pandemic’s origin, confirming the theory that the coronavirus that has spread across the world could have started with living bats.

The authors of the study, which has been submitted to Nature for peer review, warned that their findings suggest the new viruses “seem to have the same potential for infecting humans as early strains of SARS-CoV-2”.

“People working in caves, such as guano collectors, or certain ascetic religious communities who spend time in or very close to caves, as well as tourists who visit the caves, are particularly at risk of being exposed,” the authors said.

‘Natural spillover’

International experts sent to China by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January concluded that it was most likely that the SARS-CoV-2 virus jumped from bats to humans via an intermediate animal.

A competing hypothesis that the virus leaked from a lab like the specialised virology laboratory in Wuhan was deemed “extremely unlikely”, although it has yet to be ruled out.

Martin Hibbert, Professor of Emerging Infectious Disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine — who was not involved in the Laos research — said the most closely related virus was found to be able to infect human cells “as easily” as SARS-CoV-2 and therefore might be capable of infecting humans.

But he stressed that the virus is “not an ancestor of the pandemic strain”.

“This work confirms the expected diverse nature of bat infecting coronaviruses and increases the evidence that natural spill-over events from bats to humans can occur,” said Hibbert.

The authors of the Laos study, which has been posted on the site Research Square, said their results suggest the pandemic coronavirus potentially evolved through mixing between different viruses and species of bats.

James Wood, Head of Department of Veterinary Medicine at University of Cambridge — who was also not involved in the research — said it suggests “recombination between different viruses was likely involved, rather than there being a simple evolution of a single lineage over a long period”.

In a comment to the Science Media Centre he said this not only underscores the likely role played by bats and perhaps other animals living closely together, but also shows the “risks inherent in living wildlife trade”, where markets can help drive cross-species zoonotic transmission.

The post Bats with Covid-like viruses found in Laos: study appeared first on ARY NEWS.



from ScienceTechnology – ARY NEWS https://ift.tt/3u2o9ts https://ift.tt/3EFSYsG
Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[] The Unintended Consequences of Biden's COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[] Peter Doocy asks Jen Psaki if Biden (who's 'relying on his experience') has ever visited the border in his entire political career Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[World] Afghanistan's Hazaras likely targets of Taliban wrath

Meet the "new Taliban," same as the old Taliban.

The newly restored masters of Afghanistan are at it once again, killing civilians, carrying out kidnappings, and beating innocents across the country. Women are now segregated in classrooms and covered from head to toe. Peaceful protesters have been attacked and reprisal ... Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM

[Economy] ‘Pay Your Fair Share’ Taxation Isn’t About Actual Fairness

President Joe Biden this week attempted to inject life into his ailing presidency by dragging out of the closet the hoariest of political cliches: “fairness”... Read More

The post ‘Pay Your Fair Share’ Taxation Isn’t About Actual Fairness appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Entertainment] Jenelle Evans Reacts to Claim She Lost "Everything" Over Her "Psycho Hubby" David Eason Jenelle Evans, David Eason More than two years after Jenelle Evans parted ways with MTV, the mom of three says her family has found "peace." On Sept. 21, the former Teen Mom star had a Q & A...
Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Markets] Dow finishes up nearly 340 points as Fed signals tapering could begin soon Dow finishes up nearly 340 points as Fed signals tapering could begin soon Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Markets] : When fines and fees ruin lives Legislation in New York, which ranks with far less progressive states in the scope of its punitive fines and fees, may go a long way toward galvanizing national reform.
Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 post best daily gain in 2 months even as Fed says tapering of asset purchases coming soon U.S. stock indexes closed higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials notching their best daily gains in about two months, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank may announce a pullback of its bond purchases in November and could start to raise interest rates in 2022, with both moves largely expected by market participants. Subsiding fears around embattled Chinese property development company Evergrande, which rattled investors on Monday, also helped s Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[403797b3-0c43-53a5-824a-a97fc50b8ecf] 'Fantastic Beasts 3' gets official name and release date "Fantastic Beasts 3" will be released earlier than expected as Warner Bros. announced an Easter weekend release date for the upcoming film. Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Satire] ALERT: Hillary Clinton ‘Aide’ Huma Abedin Models $1,000 Pant Suit

Huma Abedin, the longtime Hillary Clinton "aide" and estranged spouse of Anthony Weiner, is modeling expensive clothes on the internet, the Washington Free Beacon has learned.

The post ALERT: Hillary Clinton ‘Aide’ Huma Abedin Models $1,000 Pant Suit appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[581915d6-9455-5807-8e09-041d90858c81] Netflix releases full trailer for 'Britney vs Spears' documentary Netflix released the full trailer for the upcoming documentary about Britney Spears, "Britney vs Spears." Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Markets] CCP Dissident Claims China Released COVID At Military World Games In October 2019 CCP Dissident Claims China Released COVID At Military World Games In October 2019

In a shocking revelation that raises serious challenges for the official narrative about COVID's origins inside China, new claims from an exiled CCP whistleblower allege that Chinese agents released COVID at an international sporting event in Wuhan in October 2019.

In effect, it was the first super-spreader event, and it - didn't happen at a biker rally in South Dakota.

CCP insider Wei Jingsheng claims that Chinese agents deliberately spread COVID during the World Military Games in October 2019. The whistleblower also claimed he tried to warn the Trump Administration about COVID five months before the pandemic began.

The international tournament for military athletes was held in Wuhan, where sick patients would start overwhelming hospitals and dropping dead in the streets not even three months later after Beijing notified the WHO on New Years about the outbreak. After the games, Wei claims, some of the 9,000 athletes who attended were sickened with a mysterious illness, including French, American and German athletes.

"I thought the Chinese government would take this opportunity to spread the virus during the Military Games, as many foreigners would show up there," Wei said in a new Sky News documentary entitled 'What Really Happened in Wuhan?'.

"[I knew] of the possibility of the Chinese government using some strange weapons, including biological weapons, because I knew they were doing experiments of that sort," he said.

The World Military Games, like the Olympic Games for military athletes, were held in Wuhan from October 19-27, 2019.

Wei claims he went to senior figures in the Trump Administration all the way back in November 2019, but was ignored. We now know cases of COVID may have been spreading in the US at that time - and certainly before Christmas 2019. While he wouldn't say which official he spoke to, he claims they were a "senior official" in Trump's Administration.

Per News.au, David Asher, a former COVID investigator for the State Department, says in the documentary that the Games were "suspicious."

"We do see some indications in our own data...that there was Covid circulating in the United States as early as early December, possibly earlier than that," he said.

"I mean, some of the people who came back from these Games were sick with something."

Having been exiled to the US years earlier, Wei said he was made aware of what was happening through CCP insiders who shared their fears about the situation and described the central government cover-up.

But the late fall, complaints about COVID had already begun popping up on social media in China, where they were immediately censored by the CCP, Wei adds. Finally, as the virus spread and the early efforts to cover it up and contain it failed, Beijing was left with no choice but to go to the WHO. Even at that point, Beijing continued to deny evidence of human-to-human spread - until it became obvious days later.

While there's no hard evidence that China used COVID as a bioweapon, there's plenty to suggest that the lab in Wuhan was working on viruses that looked an awful lot like COVID-19.

Just last night, we shared leaked grant documents showing a US agency - DARPA - rejecting a proposal from Peter Daszak - yes, that Peter Daszak - asking for money to fund research to infect bats with manipulated bat coronaviruses.

As we noted, the bid was submitted by Daszak, working on behalf of US-based EcoHealth Alliance (which has been wrapped up in the controversy of Dr. Fauci and his allies circumventing a US ban on "gain-of-function" research that may or may not have contributed to the global COVID pandemic), and Daszak was hoping to use genetic engineering to cobble "human-specific cleavage sites" onto bat COVID 'which would make it easier for the virus to enter human cells' - a method which would coincidentally answer a longstanding question among the scientific community as to how SARS-CoV-2 evolved to become so infectious to humans.

Were these researchers inadvertently helping the Chinese develop the most potent bioweapon of the modern age?

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 16:20
Published:9/22/2021 3:28:24 PM
[Entertainment] Inside Joe Jonas and Sophie Turner's New $11 Million Miami Home Joe Jonas, Sophie TurnerWelcome to Miami, Joe Jonas and Sophie Turner. The 32-year-old singer and 25-year-old Game of Thrones alum recently purchased a waterfront mansion in the Florida coastal city for $11...
Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[In The News] Expert Testimony Given at FDA Advisory Committee Raises Questions

by Seth Hancock -

“We, the medical establishment, cannot confidently call out anti-COVID-19 activists who publicly claim the vaccines harm more than they save, especially in the young and healthy. The fact that we do not have the clinical evidence to say these activists are wrong should terrify us all,” said Dr. Joseph Fraiman …

Expert Testimony Given at FDA Advisory Committee Raises Questions is posted on Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[Democrats] Liberal Group Includes Call to ‘Shoot Republicans’ in Letter to FCC

A left-wing group funded by the Center for American Progress and George Soros's Open Society Foundations submitted a letter to the government that advocated for murdering Republicans.

The post Liberal Group Includes Call to ‘Shoot Republicans’ in Letter to FCC appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[Markets] Bond market has `muted’ response to Federal Reserve decision, which is being read as dovish Bond traders barely react as Fed officials pencil in a sooner-than -expected rate hike for 2022 and send a strong signal that they are almost ready to taper their bond-buying. The lack of a formal taper announcement, and fewer-than-expected number of officials calling for a hike next year, were read by investors as dovish. Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[Politics] Psaki blames Boris Johnson for fiasco yesterday in refusing to let Biden answer questions from WH press Jen Psaki was asked ‘what went wrong’ yesterday when the UK Prime Minister took questions from foreign press but Biden wasn’t allowed to answer any questions from the White House press: Psaki . . . Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[Markets] 'He Raped Me Every Morning': Snopes Co-Founder Accused Of Sexual Abuse By Most Recent Wife 'He Raped Me Every Morning': Snopes Co-Founder Accused Of Sexual Abuse By Most Recent Wife

The saga of Snopes co-founder David Mikkelson just keeps getting worse. 

Mikkelson, who made headlines in 2016 for cheating on his co-founder wife and marrying an escort - only to be suspended by Snopes last month for mass plagiarism - has been accused of raping his now-ex escort wife 'every morning' and playing mind games with her, according to Newspunch.

In a September 9 Facebook post, Elyssa Young - who split with Mikkelson at some point in 2020, wrote:

“The worst thing about covid-19 for me personally is how complete my comprehension is that if i were to contract it I would die utterly alone."

(Fact check: False. Elyssa has just a 1% chance of dying, assuming she's under 50 years-old.)

Pre-vaccine Covid-19 case fatality rate through May 30, 2020 - including comorbidities (Statista)

My parents are completely self absorbed narcissistic pieces of work only concerned with their emotional blackmailing and thier narcissistic supply (My own mother who was once the director of peirce county rape relief, and now is “lay leader of the world for the methodist church doesn’t want to disrupt her happiness with my “rich husband” who quite honestly, raped me every morning. (By engaging with me ONLY while i was asleep and clothed for tearful years.

And yes i regularly sobbed to him to stop and his therapist what was going on. I went to multiple therapists and told them what was happening but they decide upon speaking with david mikkelson that i was”on drugs” and that I was the problem. Not the raping I went to multiple lawyers all of which were happy to take my savings and then tell me how wonderful david was and that i should not persue domestic violence charges.

He refuses all communication because of course he knows i will not keep quiet so villifying me is of course the logical answer. And villifying is his specialty… i would worry about posting this but really why? David always said facebook wasn’t a good medium to distribute info on.”

In 2016, the Daily Mail reported that Alyssa - a former Snopes.com administrator, was a part-time porn actress and sex worker.

David, meanwhile, was suspended by Snopes after BuzzFeed uncovered massive plagiarism - including instructing other Snopes writers to 'cut-and-paste' mainstream breaking news stories without attribution, and then alter them after the fact.

In total, Mikkelson 'wrote and published 54 articles with plagiarized material,' under his own name as well as a pseudonym, and the Snopes byline. In addition, an internal review by the 'fact-checking' company identified 140 articles with possible problems. Meanwhile, Snopes raised $1.7 million in July to fight a series of lawsuits from a former tech vendor.

Fact check: what an absolute mess.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 15:40
Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[Anti-Americanism] The anti-Semites are running the show in Congress

There are some virulent anti-Semites in Congress and they are clearly in control of the democrat agenda. They go by a catchy name- The Squad. They have a long and glorious history of anti-Semitism Squad member Rashida Tlaib under fire from anti-Semitism watchdog Squad Members Called Out for Anti-Semitism in Fellow Democrats’ Letter to President […]

The post The anti-Semites are running the show in Congress appeared first on Flopping Aces.

Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[World] Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing: Robo-advisers give decent financial advice on the cheap They can be good choices for new investors,r busy people who don’t want to do it themselves or those who don’t have much to invest.
Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[] Polls Turn Poisonous for Democrats as Biden Bungles and the Cities Bleed Thanks to qdpsteve, Biden's numbers in Iowa are worse than Trump's ever were. Thirty-one percent of Iowans approve of how Biden is handling his job, while 62% disapprove and 7% are not sure, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom... Published:9/22/2021 2:54:09 PM
[World] Time for U.S. to unfriend Pakistan

Who’s to blame for America’s humiliating surrender in Afghanistan, the dishonorable abandonment of American citizens along with Afghans who sided with us against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the disgraceful treatment of NATO allies, and the lethal incompetence with which the retreat was carried out? The buck stops on the ... Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM

[Society] As Vaccine Mandates Increase, Religious Exemptions Come Under Fire

Columbia University’s Robert Klitzman shared a tragic story with CNN Saturday of a woman riddled with cancer who reportedly refused to undergo medical procedures, relied... Read More

The post As Vaccine Mandates Increase, Religious Exemptions Come Under Fire appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Politics] HHS document reveal incidents of sexual abuse of unaccompanied children at border by “staff” and “non-staff” It won’t shock you to learn that some of the illegal unaccompanied children who’ve ended up in HHS custody because of Biden’s border crisis have faced sexual abuse, not just from other . . . Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Race and racial bias] Chelsea player breaks ranks, declines to kneel (Paul Mirengoff) For more than a year now, players in the English Premier League have been “taking a knee” just before kickoff. The gesture, an outgrowth of the George Floyd affair, is supposed to signal opposition to racism. In every EPL match I’ve seen, all 22 players have gone along with it. It’s not clear why anyone should kneel to protest racism. The gesture strikes me as either meaningless or a nod Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Entertainment] See a First Look at the Mysterious One of Us Is Lying Character Portraits One of Us Is Lying, Character Portraits, PeacockThe Breakfast Club with fatal consequences? Talk about a deadly detention. We're more than ready for Peacock's high school murder mystery One of Us Is Lying. And now E! News can...
Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Uncategorized] Democrats Worry Biden’s Domestic Agenda is Already Falling Apart

“If any member of Congress is not concerned that this could fall apart, they need treatment”

The post Democrats Worry Biden’s Domestic Agenda is Already Falling Apart first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks hold gains, dollar strengthens after Fed flags taper soon A gauge of global stock markets trimmed gains in choppy trading on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve cleared the way for the central bank to reduce its monthly bond purchases soon. Asset price moves were volatile following the Fed's latest policy statement, in which the central bank also signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected. "It's probably a little bit more hawkish than many would have anticipated basically acknowledging that should the economy continue to grow as we have seen it would warrant a tapering to occur," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Markets] The Ratings Game: As SoFi stock surges, one analyst sees at least 50% more upside SoFi Technologies Inc.'s strong product portfolio could help lift its shares roughly 50% higher, according to one analyst's model—and that's on top of an 10% rally Wednesday.
Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Markets] Goldman Warns Of Oil Spike To $90 If Winter Is Colder Than Usual Goldman Warns Of Oil Spike To $90 If Winter Is Colder Than Usual

Oil's recent gains may accelerate and the price per barrel could surge to $90 if the approaching winter proves colder than normal, Jeff Currie, Goldman's global commodities head of told Bloomberg TV. Such a rise - the result of gas for oil substitution due to exploding nat gas prices around the globe - would be $10 higher than the bank’s current forecast and would be accompanied by a prolonged period of high natural gas prices that already have had disastrous consequences for U.K. power providers.

According to Curie, who recapped a recent note from Goldman's Damien Couravlin, the tightening gas supplies in Europe which have led to a shattering of all price records, will elevate demand for oil as an alternative at a time when global crude output is constrained, Currie said adding that post-hurricane disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico would adversely impact supply.

“Supply chains are so severely depleted that the system can not accommodate any type of disruption,” Currie said. Benchmark international oil futures rose 1.4% to $75.39 at 4:09 p.m. in London, extending the year-to-date advance to 46%.

Meanwhile, the gas rally shows no signs of abating, “particularly outside the U.S.” as tight supplies run headlong into surging demand, Currie said.

As noted above, Currie is referencing a recent note from Goldman's Damien Courvalin, who in a note over the weekend said that global gas prices have surged as inventories remain at exceptionally low levels ahead of peak winter demand. This risk premium reflects prices testing for the marginal solutions of gas-to-oil power and industrial substitution, ahead of power blackouts. According to Goldman, the oil market can indeed help, with, for example, a one-standard colder deviation 2.5 Bcf/d boost to gas burn offset by a 0.6 mb/d increase in oil power burn (in Europe and Asia) and industrial use (in refining and petrochemical). Higher heating and residential oil usage at colder temperatures would bring the total uplift to oil demand to 0.9 mb/d through March.

And while manageable from an oil market perspective, such a one-standard deviation weather shock would nonetheless represent $5/bbl upside to the bank's $80/bbl Brent forecast. Clearing that price threshold would in turn require TTF and JKM prices to rally above $23.5 and $25.5/mmBtu (vs. $22.5 and $25/mmBtu spot).

We estimate that the potential capacity for gas-to-oil substitution could be larger should gas rally further, of up to 1.35 mb/d in power and 0.6 mb/d in industry (in Asia and Europe), although such a large demand boost would prove too large for the oil market to absorb, leading to a spike in prices to in turn achieve oil demand destruction, the ultimate solution to widespread energy scarcity.

In fact, the challenges to gas-to-oil demand substitution may become apparent even at low volumes given already below average petroleum product inventories, infrastructure constraints at sourcing and diverting feedstocks as well as the only intermittent gas relief provided by peaking liquids plant with only days of storage. This suggests that risks to our estimated oil and gas price thresholds to absorb colder weather are skewed to the upside, as illustrated by the rally in JKM prices to $32/mmBtu this January.

On net, Goldman warns that "the tightness in global gas supplies creates a clear and potentially meaningful bullish catalyst for the oil market this winter, larger than the downside risk to global oil demand from another Delta-like COVID wave. The bullish impact of even moderate gas-to-oil substitution in power would be greater for the fuel oil and LPG markets relative to distillates given their smaller market size."

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 15:20
Published:9/22/2021 2:25:42 PM
[Politics & Ideas] The Lack of a Whip
View Post
Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[Entertainment] Looking Back on Survivor's Most Controversial Twists Survivor Season 41 Cast, Jeff ProbstCome on in, guys! Survivor fans have been waiting a long time to hear Jeff Probst say those iconic words and on Wednesday, Sept. 22, it'll finally happen. After production was halted...
Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[World] Sen. Susan Collins says she would oppose abortion-rights bill

Sen. Susan Collins says she would oppose Democrats' legislative response to Texas' new abortion law that bans the procedure at about six weeks of pregnancy.

Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[International] Biden’s UN Speech Panders to Globalists

President Joe Biden gave a speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday that was guaranteed to delight any globalist. Suffused with promises of multinational cooperation, it... Read More

The post Biden’s UN Speech Panders to Globalists appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[25c5e5fd-bdb7-544a-b7eb-0bdc65ab383d] Brandon Judd: Rewarding Del Rio migrants for illegally crossing our borders means they will keep coming On the campaign trail, Biden promised an orderly and humane immigration system. If what we are seeing now is humane, the world better brace itself for what the president considers inhumane. Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[Markets] Record Shattered (Again): 73 Container Ships Stuck Waiting Off California Record Shattered (Again): 73 Container Ships Stuck Waiting Off California

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

The number of container ships at anchor or drifting in San Pedro Bay off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has blown through all previous records.

The latest peak: There were an all-time-high 73 container ships in the queue in San Pedro Bay on Sunday, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California (the tally inched back to 69 on Tuesday). Of the ships offshore Sunday, 36 were forced to drift because anchorages were full.

Theoretically, the numbers — already surreally high — could go even higher than this. While designated anchorages are limited, the space for ships to safely drift offshore is not.

“There’s lots of ocean for drifting — there’s no limit,” Capt. Kip Loutit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told American Shipper.

“Our usual VTS [Vessel Traffic Service] area is a 25-mile radius from Point Fermin by the entrance to Los Angeles, which gives a 50-mile diameter to drift ships. We could easily expand to a 40-mile radius, because we track them within that radius for air-quality reasons. That would give us an 80-mile diameter to drift ships,” said Loutit.

Limits on land

The Southern California gateway is acting like the narrow tube on a funnel: Ocean volumes pour in from Asia and can only flow out at a certain velocity due to terminal limitations as well as limitations of warehouses, trucking and rail beyond the terminal. When the flow into the top of the funnel is too great, as it is now, it creates an overflow in the form of ships at anchor or adrift. This offshore ship queue is equivalent to a massive floating warehouse for containerized imports whose size is only limited by liner shipping capacity and U.S. consumer demand.

How constrained is the flow? Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said during a press conference on Wednesday that container dwell time in the terminal “has reached its peak since the surge began” and is now six days, worsening from 5.3 days last month. On-dock rail dwell time is 11.7 days, not far below the peak of 13.4. Street dwell time (outside the terminal) “is 8.5 days, nearing the all-time high” of 8.8 days, said Seroka. It has worsened from 8.3 days a month ago.

Marine Exchange data reveals the constraints of the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex. Since congestion began, the total number of container ships either at anchor or at berth has risen and fallen — it was an all-time-high 100 on Sunday, more than five times pre-COVID levels. But one stat has remained remarkably consistent: The number of container ships at Los Angeles/Long Beach berths has remained in a tight band of around 27-31 per day — that is what the land side can handle, the tube of the metaphorical funnel. Throughout 2021, all ship arrivals over that threshold have overflowed into the anchorages and drift areas.

Chart: American Shipper based on data from Marine Exchange of Southern California. Data bi-monthly Jan 2019-Nov 2020; daily Dec 2020-present

More ships deployed in trans-Pacific

Meanwhile, at the wider open end at the top of the funnel — the drift area radius outside the port — a much higher number of ships is flooding into Southern California than ever before. Seroka noted that of the 84 ships his port handled in August, 11 were “extra loaders” — ships that are not part of a scheduled service. “And in addition to the extra loaders we’ve seen from incumbent carriers, there are no less than 10 newcomers [new services] to the trade,” he added. According to Alphaliner, deployed trans-Pacific capacity is up 30% year on year.

Asked by American Shipper whether ports or terminals could proactively stem inbound flows to provide more breathing room, Seroka replied: “Slowing down these ships is something we thought about in the early days of the surge, to try to give us a little bit more time in between to get ready for the next ships. But if you start looking at slowing down these ships, it’s going to back up the vessel supply chain even further and make schedules an even deeper concern for liner companies.” In other words, no.

Imports down year on year

The higher the number of ships waiting offshore, the bigger the queue and the longer it takes for a vessel to get a berth. On Tuesday, the average wait time to reach a berth in Los Angeles (30-day rolling average) rose to an all-time high of nine days.

That, in turn, delays imports. Back in August 2020, when import demand surged post-lockdowns, there were almost no ships at anchor off Southern California. This August, there was an average of 36 ships at anchor per day, according to Marine Exchange data. The port of Los Angeles handled 485,672 twenty-foot equivalent units of imports in August — down 5.9% year on year.

Chart: American Shipper based on data from Port of Los Angeles

As Seroka pointed out, on the last day of August, 26 ships were at anchor waiting for berths in Los Angeles. These ships had 205,000 TEUs of cargo on board, which was pushed into this month (just as delayed cargo from this month will be pushed into October).

Total throughput for the port was 954,377 TEUs in August, down 0.8% year on year due to the decline in imports and a 23% plunge in loaded exports, offset by a 17% surge in outbound empty containers.

The port expects volumes to pull back from August’s level over the next two months, to 930,000 TEUs in September and 950,000 TEUs in October. It expects full-year throughput of 10.8 million TEUs.

More blank sailings ahead

What could stem the tide of cargo arriving in Southern California and cap the size of the floating warehouse?

When congestion peaked earlier this year, in the first quarter, it led to a large number of “blanked” (canceled) sailings in the second quarter. Ships stuck at anchor in San Pedro Bay could not get back to Asia in time, forcing carriers to cancel voyages. Those cancellations helped pare California anchorage totals in May and early June.

Carriers are yet again blanking sailings as a result of escalating congestion in Southern California. But this time, the number of ships at anchor and drifting has much more room to run before the network reaches its limit.

Not only are there more services and extra loaders, but carriers also have an incentive to blank sailings in other markets instead and redeploy ships into the trans-Pacific, where they can earn more money by topping off rates with premium charges.

According to Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, “If we continue to see extremely strong demand specifically on the trans-Pacific, carriers may elect to blank a few Asia-Europe sailings and instead temporarily let a few of those vessels make a trip across the Pacific before coming back to Asia and re-phasing into the Asia-Europe network.”

According to Alphaliner, ships are already being pulled from the Asia-Middle East and Asia-Red Sea lanes to make more money elsewhere. Alphaliner reported that up to 50% of Asia-Middle East services are now being blanked because vessels have been redeployed to trades like the trans-Pacific “where spot freight rates are at historic highs.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 14:38
Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St extends gains following Fed statement U.S. stocks added to gains on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cleared the way to ease monthly bond purchases "soon" and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected. Overall indicators in the economy "have continued to strengthen," the Fed said in its latest statement. Stocks were already sharply higher before the news from the Fed, with stocks bouncing back as concerns eased over a default by China's Evergrande. Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[b3a6bbd5-704c-558f-8145-cf9ea07de0c1] 'Alter Ego' judge Will.i.am says singing competition show could 'transform' television, movies and more Will.i.am, Nick Lachey, Alanis Morissette and Grimes will judge FOX's "Alter Ego," a new singing competition that will see competitors perform as colorful avatars. Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[World] Market Extra: Why the debt limit fight makes Washington a stock-market ‘wild card’ The potential for another white-knuckle flirtation with a U.S. default via a debt-ceiling showdown is helping to raise policy uncertainty. The good news, is that rising uncertainty has traditionally been a buying opportunity, says a top Wall Street technician.
Published:9/22/2021 1:55:13 PM
[] The Shining Stars of Late Night are joining forces with John Kerry to bring 'Climate Night' to the unwashed masses Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[World] Nothing threatens Putin's regime more than Ukraine

During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” The U.S. reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference.  Donbass; and seized Ukrainian vessels and sailors in ... Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM

[Politics] Scott Lay, chronicler of California politics with a must-read newsletter, dies at 48

In addition to writing the Nooner, his email roundup of Capitol news, Lay was an attorney and fierce advocate for community colleges.

Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[World] Why You Shouldn't Call the New Wonder Years a Reboot The Wonder YearsIt may be on the same network and have the same title, but don't call 2021's The Wonder Years a reboot. The stars of the new coming-of-age comedy made sure to make this very point...
Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[Quick Takes] Chinese Fighter Jets Soar Over Taiwan after US-Australia Submarine Deal

France’s President Macron will talk to Biden amid crisis over submarines.

The post Chinese Fighter Jets Soar Over Taiwan after US-Australia Submarine Deal first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[Markets] Fed officials say tapering 'may soon be warranted' and pencil in a rate hike Fed officials say tapering 'may soon be warranted' and pencil in a rate hike Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[Democrats] Dems Back Measure To Give Aid to Iraqi Militia Groups Tied to Iran

Democratic leaders in the House are backing a measure to provide U.S. assistance to Iraqi militia groups that are known to be dominated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The post Dems Back Measure To Give Aid to Iraqi Militia Groups Tied to Iran appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[Entertainment] Ian Rankin took on the challenge of finishing his mentor’s book. The result is a darkly beautiful novel. “The Dark Remains” captures perfectly the voice of the late William McIlvanney, master of Tartan Noir. Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[Markets] Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Reiterate That 'Tapering Is Not Tightening' Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Reiterate That 'Tapering Is Not Tightening'

Is this the beginning of the end? Or the end of the beginning of the real big end? While the FOMC statement did not explicitly "talk taper", the dots suggest a Fed that is more hawkish than before... but whatever you do, don't interpret that as 'tightening'.

Fed Chair Jay Powell has some dancing between the raindrops to do today: avoid being cornered on firing Rosengren and Kaplan; avoid suggesting the economy is doing 'too well', avoid saying the economy is not 'doing well'; avoid being forced to express his views on when and how long any tapering of The Fed's purchases will be...

In other words, Powell has to go full 'Greenspan' today, mumble a lot, use big words, and escape to fight another day.

"...instead of just stopping, I would continue on resolving the sentence in some obscure way which made it incomprehensible. But nobody was quite sure I wasn’t saying something profound when I wasn’t. And that became the so-called Fed-speak which I became an expert on over the years. It’s a self-protection mechanism?…?when you’re in an environment where people are shooting questions at you, and you’ve got to be very careful about the nuances of what you’re going to say and what you don’t say."

Watch Powell walk the tightrope here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 14:25
Published:9/22/2021 1:38:06 PM
[] "Bipartisan" "Infrastructure" Bill May Fail -- And Take Biden and Even Pelosi With It Okay, that's very speculative. But all I do anymore is post bad news. Let me speculate some in the positive direction. Note that if the Democrat Party tears itself up over this, then the Republicans who consistently voted in favor... Published:9/22/2021 1:38:05 PM
[] DHS Secretary Mayorkas reminds GOP Rep 'I work 18 hours a day' to explain why he can't provide 'basic information' on border question Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[] THURSDAY AT 3:30PM EASTERN: 'Five O'Clock Somewhere' with Kruiser, VodkaPundit, Special Guest Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Entertainment] Amelia Hamlin Shares Cryptic Message About "What's Not For You" After Scott Disick Split Scott Disick, Amelia Gray HamlinAmelia Hamlin is getting on with her life, Scott-free. The 20-year-old model posted a cryptic quote about moving forward on her Instagram Story on Wednesday, Sept. 22, two weeks after she...
Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Middle Column] No dissent allowed! UN releases ‘Our Common Agenda,’ an 85-page report urging ‘a common, empirically backed consensus on the public good of facts, science, & knowledge’

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres also goes after free speech. “Now is the time to end the ‘infodemic’ plaguing our world by defending a common, empirically backed consensus around facts, science, and knowledge,” he wrote. “The ‘war on science’ must end. All policy and budget decisions should be backed by science and expertise, and I am calling for a global code of conduct that promotes integrity in public information.”

Translation: We’ll establish an informational monopoly that will disseminate officially approved “facts” and suppress heterodox opinions. You think I’m exaggerating? Decide for yourself.

“While vigorously defending the right to freedom of expression everywhere, we must equally encourage societies to develop a common, empirically backed consensus on the public good of facts, science, and knowledge.” Guterres wrote. “A global code of conduct that promotes integrity in public information could be explored together with States, media outlets, and regulatory bodies, facilitated by the United Nations. With recent concerns about trust and mistrust linked to technology and the digital space, it is also time to understand, better regulate, and manage our digital commons as a global public good.”

Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Markets] The Fed choreographed very well to prepare the markets for tapering: J.P. Morgan’s Chair of Global Research Joyce Chang, J.P. Morgan’s Chair of Global Research, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the outlook on the Fed taper, inflation, labor market and the housing sector. Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Climate] Climate Funnies! (Steven Hayward) Did you know that this week is Climate Week? I didn’t either. It gets better—tonight is Climate Night! And late night comics are on the job! So you know we’re saved. Late-night comedians team up to tackle the climate crisis Climate change, which is responsible for magnifying this summer’s deadly heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires and floods, is typically no laughing matter. But for one night, seven popular late-night comedy shows Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Politics] Biden admin not even giving Haitian illegals a court date after releasing them into US This morning we reported that the Biden administration lied about rapidly deporting the Haitian illegals camped out in Del Rio, Texas, and are instead releasing thousands of them into the US. Well . . . Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Markets] These stocks are in a bear market, but they are poised for gains of up to 68% These stocks are in a bear market, but they are poised for gains of up to 68% Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Markets] Chanos Warns Evergrande Crisis Could Be Worse Than Lehman For China Chanos Warns Evergrande Crisis Could Be Worse Than Lehman For China

One of the world's most well-known short-sellers, Jim Chanos, told FT the Evergrande crisis is just a symptom of the property-driven growth model coming to an end and could be "far worse" than a "Lehman-type" blowup for China. 

"There's lots of Evergrandes out there in China — Evergrande just happens to be one of the biggest," Chanos said. 

"But all the developers look like this. The whole Chinese property market is on stilts." 

Chanos could be right. After all, on Monday, Chinese realtor Sinic Holdings crashed 87% in Hong Kong on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese real estate sector.

Evergrande is the world's most indebted developer, with at least $300 billion in debt outstanding. In recent months, a liquidation panic of the company's bonds sent its 2023 bonds from 90 cents on the dollar in June to 26 cents present day. In recent weeks, the collapse has spooked markets, including global equities, credit, FX, and commodities.

Fears of Evergrande's unraveling seemed imminent earlier this week after two anxiety-filled days during which China was on holiday and traders hammered Hong Kong trader property stocks in the anticipation the company would default on its yuan bond. However, Evergrande's onshore unit unveiled vaguely worded plans to pay the interest due Thursday while leaving the fate of an $83.5 million offshore bond coupon payment in limbo.

Unlike Lehman, which caused an international implosion of the financial system, most of Evergrande's $300 billion in liabilities are held with creditors and businesses in mainland China. So worldwide contagion might not happen this time around but could certainly inflict severe pain for the world's second-largest economy. 

Chanos said the consequences of default by Evergrande could unleash a credit crisis in the country:

"In many ways, you don't have to worry that it's a Lehman-type situation, but in many others, it's far worse because it's symptomatic of the whole economic model and the debt that's behind the economic model." 

He added:

 "If you try to deflate this bubble, it is fraught with risks. I don't think they're contagion risks."

Evergrande could be transformed into a zombie company where it defaults on its interest payments but is given extended time to repay or restructured. One would assume Communist Party won't allow the company to implode ahead of a closed-door Communist Party's Central Committee in November. 

In the meantime, the communists will have to figure out "new growth drivers or downshift somewhat semi-permanently into a lower level of growth," he said. 

"Has the Chinese Communist party grappled with the implications of that? That remains to be seen," he added.

Lower and slower growth is something President Xi Jinping and his ruling party cannot have and perhaps is why People's Bank of China has come to the rescue this week in the biggest one-day injection since February

Chanos' New York-based hedge fund Kynikos Associates has doubled its exposure to China in its global short fund to more than 10% this year, with short positions in HSBC and Standard Chartered, "due to their heavy loan exposure to Greater China." 

... and let's not forget, no matter how the Evergrande drama plays out, China's housing market is in trouble

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 13:43
Published:9/22/2021 12:58:25 PM
[Politics & Ideas] The Lack of a Whip
View Post
Published:9/22/2021 12:58:24 PM
[Media] Facebook’s Oversight Board Says Company Lied About Whitelist

Facebook’s Oversight Board has accused the company of lying to it about policies that let high-profile users skirt the platform's rules.

The post Facebook’s Oversight Board Says Company Lied About Whitelist appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 12:58:24 PM
[f10fb635-99ea-5d14-b583-de46628a0fab] Megan Fox, Kourtney Kardashian team up for sultry SKIMS campaign The actress and the reality TV star posed together in a new photoshoot for the shapewear brand. Published:9/22/2021 12:58:24 PM
[Markets] In One Chart: Federal Reserve meeting days have been good for the stock market — until Powell starts talking It's Fed decision day on Wall Street and investors are awaiting the latest policy statement and outlook for interest rates with bated breath, as they tend to be market movers.
Published:9/22/2021 12:58:24 PM
[] OUCH: Biden’s Approval Ratings Hit a New Grim Milestone Published:9/22/2021 12:30:48 PM
[] Joy Behar posits that 'the real victim' of Bill Clinton's sexual predation was ackshually Hillary Clinton and, ultimately, the United States [video] Published:9/22/2021 12:30:48 PM
[Politics] Caitlyn Jenner brought fame to her run for California governor. Why it failed anyway

After an initial splash in the media, Caitlyn Jenner's bid for governor flopped. But, she says: 'I'm not done with the political side of my life.'

Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Society] 11 Examples of Defensive Gun Use That Bid ‘Good Riddance’ to Biden’s ATF Nominee

President Joe Biden last week withdrew his nomination of prominent gun control activist David Chipman to head the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.... Read More

The post 11 Examples of Defensive Gun Use That Bid ‘Good Riddance’ to Biden’s ATF Nominee appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Entertainment] Home Improvement's Zachery Ty Will Make You Nostalgic AF With Memories of Jonathan Taylor Thomas Jonathan Taylor Thomas, Zachery Ty BryanZachery Ty Bryan and Jonathan Taylor Thomas side-by-side? Thanks to a throwback pic, Home Improvement fans have suddenly found themselves right back in the '90s. ...
Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[LGBT] [Dale Carpenter] There's No Constitutional Right to Interracial (or Same-Sex) Marriage, Says the Architect of the Texas "Heartbeat Bill" It's the one amicus brief supporting Mississippi's abortion restriction that takes a wrecking ball to the Supreme Court's fundamental-rights precedents Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[structure:news] Pictures of the Day: Incredible image of a snowy owl in mid-flight Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Uncategorized] ‘Missing White Woman Syndrome’ – Joy Reid Racializes Gabby Petito Death

Reid complains media doesn't cover missing non-white women, but no one is stopping her from doing it.

The post ‘Missing White Woman Syndrome’ – Joy Reid Racializes Gabby Petito Death first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Right Column] FLOP-26: UN Chief Warns Climate Summit At Risk Of Failure
Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Markets] : Apple will not allow ‘Fortnite’ to return until all appeals are exhausted, Epic CEO says Apple Inc. will not allow "Fortnite" to return to its ecosystem until all appeals of the landmark antitrust case between Epic Games Inc. and Apple are exhausted, Epic's chief executive said Wednesday.
Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[e94727cb-92db-59c0-9452-538d6c8a2b5b] Prince Andrew officially served with sexual assault lawsuit, court docs show Prince Andrew has officially been served with legal documents in a civil assault case launched against him by accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre, Fox News can confirm. Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Markets] More Than Half Of US Companies To Impose Vaccine Mandates, New Survey Finds More Than Half Of US Companies To Impose Vaccine Mandates, New Survey Finds

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A survey conducted by risk management and advisory company Willis Towers Watson has found that more than half of U.S. companies expect to impose COVID vaccine mandates on their employees by the end of the year.

The survey of 1000 companies, employing close to 10 million people, found that 52 percent of employers are planning some form of vaccine mandate for workers.

The figure would be a massive increase on the 21 percent of employers who currently have mandates in place.

The survey also found that almost one-third of employers say they are planning to make full vaccination a requirement to enter the workplace building.

A further 21 percent said could make vaccination a requirement for any new hires, the literal enacting of a ‘no jab, no job’ policy.

The survey also noted that 59 percent of employers are already tracking workers’ vaccination status, with a further 19 percent planning to do so by the end of the year.

Of those already tracking vaccination status, 62 percent require workers to submit proof of vaccination.

The survey also found that “Eight in 10 respondents (80%) require employees to wear masks indoors at any location. Another 13% are planning or considering doing so.”

Willis Towers Watson’s population health leader Dr Jeff Levin-Sherz commented that “We expect even more employers to institute vaccine mandates in the wake of FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine.”

“We have reached a point in the pandemic where employers that have worked hard to make it easy for employees to get vaccinated are also considering approaches to make it more difficult for employees to remain unvaccinated,” Levin-Scherz added.

As we noted last week, a Quinnipiac poll has found that almost half of Americans (48%) believe that Joe Biden’s vaccine mandates “go too far,” and that a slight majority are in opposition to it.

The latest findings, however, highlight that the government doesn’t even need to be involved for vaccine mandates to become the norm.

It remains to be seen whether resistance will form among private sector workers, as it has among first responders and the military.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 13:20
Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[Biden Administration] Poll: Biden’s Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low

President Joe Biden's approval rating has hit an all-time low, according to a Gallup poll released Wednesday.

The post Poll: Biden’s Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[414355c3-0c46-5c5b-b102-815047fc2570] R. Kelly tells judge he won't testify at sex trafficking trial R. Kelly told a judge on Wednesday that he won't take the witness stand at his sex trafficking trial, meaning he'll avoid the risk of a potentially brutal cross-examination. Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[] Biden Is Busing Haitian Immigrants from the Much-Watched Del Rio Bridge to Other Border Points, Which Are Not Being Filmed -- And Then Releasing Them to Disappear Into America Remember how Obama lied to the country to impose de facto open borders? He did this by getting his open borders allies to call him "The Deporter in Chief." This was supposedly an insult. Actually, it was arranged cover. Obama... Published:9/22/2021 12:30:47 PM
[] WaPo journo frustrated by Biden avoiding questions gets informed why it shouldn't be a surprise Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[BKSY] Palantir: Positioned To Become One Of The Most Important Software And Tech Holding Companies Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[In The News] Feds Purchasing Surveillance Drones From Chinese Company Pentagon Says Is A Security Threat

by Sebastian Hughes -

Federal law enforcement agencies are purchasing surveillance drones from a Chinese company the Pentagon has said could pose a threat to national security, Axios reported. The U.S. Secret Service purchased eight surveillance drones from Da Jiang Innovations (DJI), a company based in Shenzhen, China, in July, according to procurement records …

Feds Purchasing Surveillance Drones From Chinese Company Pentagon Says Is A Security Threat is posted on Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[Left Column] COVID-19 Called a Model for the Climate Agenda in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons in article by Marc Morano

In 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared, "Climate change is the greatest health challenge of the 21st century, and threatens all aspects of the society in which we live." Now COVID-19 has top billing as the existential health threat, but the proposed response is the same, writes Marc Morano in the fall issue of issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.

Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[topics:people/joe-biden] Wednesday evening UK news briefing: The power players in Boris Johnson and Joe Biden's White House meeting Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[Entertainment] Morgan Stewart Reveals All on Baby No. 2, Pregnancy Symptoms & More Morgan StewartReady for back-to-back babies! E! News personality Morgan Stewart exclusively dished about her second pregnancy during today's Sept. 22 episode of Necessary Realness, just two weeks...
Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[Markets] Will another government shutdown hurt the stock market? Goldman Sachs just crunched some numbers on the potential impact to stocks from another government shutdown. Should you be worried? Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[Markets] Coronavirus Update: Global tally of COVID-19 cases nears 230 million, as Biden convenes virtual pandemic summit and doubles U.S. purchase of Pfizer vaccine The global tally of confirmed cases of the coronavirus-borne illness COVID-19 was heading close to 230 million on Wednesday, as President Joe Biden prepared to host a virtual summit on the pandemic with world leaders gathered in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.
Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[Markets] A Gentle Reminder: Lehman Was Not 'A Moment' A Gentle Reminder: Lehman Was Not 'A Moment'

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Everyone seems to be talking about the Lehman Moment again this week.

While there is a debate around whether Evergrande is a Lehman Moment or not, that misses the crux of the problem, Lehman never was a “moment” at least by any standard definition of “moment”. The Lehman bankruptcy was an important event, maybe even a seminal event during the Great Financial Crisis, but it was not a “moment”. I cannot tell why, of all the important events that occurred during the Financial Crisis, and leading up to it, the nation has embraced this concept of the Lehman Moment? Maybe because it has the beauty of pinning the blame on a now non-existent Wall Street firm? It is always nice to have a scapegoat, a single moment in time or person that you can blame, especially when that person or entity isn’t well regarded. Lehman seems to fit the bill well. Much better than blaming it on individuals taking out NINJA loans (the No Income No Job Application loans were one of my favorite terms of the crisis). Maybe we don’t want to blame any other number of actors that failed before or after Lehman for their mistakes, because they hit too close to home (i.e., maybe we as a nation would have to shoulder more blame). Maybe too many of the surviving actors don’t want to be associated with their part of the crisis, so they too like to pin it on Lehman. It is probably too difficult to go back in time and argue that some policies from D.C. may have contributed to the problem (worth thinking about in an era where D.C. seems to “know” better than we do, what we need). There are a lot of reasons why the Lehman Moment has caught on, I just don’t think it is accurate. I have not seen one single report explaining why Lehman going bankrupt or not would have affected the price of homes in Las Vegas.

I believe, that had Lehman been “saved” the problems we faced would still have been result, we just would have taken a more circuitous route. That an inexorable chain of events had been started before Lehman and would have continued regardless of saving Lehman or not.

Show Me the Moment

Fighting the Lehman Moment is a re-occurring theme for me (forbes) and is a cause I want to focus on again, because I think relying on the Lehman Moment as a crutch leads to bad decision making.

Lehman filed over the weekend of September 12th to 15th, 2018. The S&P 500, trading with the extreme volatility (which was the “norm” at the time), dropped from 1,251 on the Friday, to 1,192 on the Monday after the filing (for anyone in the credit market, few will forget the weekend trading session of CDS contingent on Lehman’s default, which if I remember correctly, they waited un after midnight Sunday, making all of that contingent trading a waste of time, other than as a precursor of how bad (or not bad) the market would react to a Lehman default).

I would hardly consider a 3% drop a “moment”. By the end of that week, the S&P 500 closed higher at 1,255. Again, when I think of an identifiable moment to pin the financial crisis on, I don’t see that moment leading to higher stock prices a week later! Even 2 weeks after the filing, September 26th, the stock market at 1,213, was above where it had closed the day after the filing and was just down 3%  from before filing. Two weeks for a 3% move is a “moment”?

Going further back in time, the S&P 500 closed at 1,214 on July 15th, which was lower than where the Market closed one week after the filing and basically the same as where it closed two weeks after. From July 15th to September 26th, the S&P 500 was unchanged, despite a Lehman filing and two weeks of trading post filing.

The wisdom of the markets apparently completely missed, for two full weeks, that Lehman was a moment!

Hindsight is 20/20

I will concede, that maybe, after time passed, markets realized how important Lehman was and hence, going back in time, can tie Lehman filing to the horrors of the market that followed later, better than they could at the time. Sure, some settlement issues were brought to light, but things like the CDS auction when relatively smoothly, as did other events that were touted as likely to “break” the market at the time.

I think the importance of Lehman grew over time as we understood more, but finding an unlikeable scapegoat, who wasn’t around to defend itself played as much or more of a role in creating this Lehman narrative.

So, we can debate the Lehman moment, or importantly, figure out if Evergrande is a piece, and a rather large piece in a puzzle leading to an inexorable change in China and the global economy?

Bottom Line

I think the Evergrande will accelerate the Recentralization and Delinking that has already started in China. The Communist Party is reasserting to anyone and everyone, their control over China. With their treatment of Jack Ma and others, they seem to be taking the Russian proverb “The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the scythe” to heart. China, with a billion people to feed and keep mollified (if not happy) will have its hands full dealing with an economic slowdown and a middle class hurt by a property bust. China will likely take steps to “fix” that since it is necessary for the survival of the CCP. I highly suspect, their solutions will hasten them along the path of recentralizing control within the party and delinking from global influences detrimental to their goals.

Evergrande is not a moment, but, for me, is confirmation to expect China to impact the global economy and thus markets, negatively for the near term and medium term at least. Companies need to have an urgency in assessing and updating their China plans.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 12:45
Published:9/22/2021 11:52:20 AM
[] This aged well: Recall when Joe Biden said that whatever happens to Haiti 'wouldn't mean a whole lot to our interests' [video] Published:9/22/2021 11:26:06 AM
[Politics] Watch this bizarre answer from Bill Gates when he’s asked about his relationship with Epstein Bill Gates claims he’s full of regrets about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, but gives a bizarre answer when asked if there are any lessons to learn from all of this:   . . . Published:9/22/2021 11:26:06 AM
[Entertainment] Get the First Look at the Ultimate Real Housewives History Book, Not All Diamonds and Rosé Real Housewives All Stars, Kenya Moore, Kyle Richards, Ramona Singer, Luann De Lesseps, Teresa Giudice, Melissa Gorga, Cynthia BaileyWe independently selected these products because we love them, and we hope you do too. Shop with E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a commission if you purchase something through our...
Published:9/22/2021 11:26:06 AM
[Markets] Shares of restaurant payments company Toast surge in post-IPO debut on NYSE Shares of restaurant payments company Toast surge in post-IPO debut on NYSE Published:9/22/2021 11:26:06 AM
[Quick Takes] New Policy at UMass Medical School Restricts Faculty Support for the Death Penalty

"sets out guidelines meant to dissuade physicians from performing or aiding in legally authorized executions"

The post New Policy at UMass Medical School Restricts Faculty Support for the Death Penalty first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 11:26:06 AM
[Markets] Forget The Taper: All Hell Will Break Loose If The Fed's 2022 Dots Signal 1 Rate Hike Forget The Taper: All Hell Will Break Loose If The Fed's 2022 Dots Signal 1 Rate Hike

For all the concerns about the Fed's tapering, the real news - and potential surprise - in today's FOMC announcement will be the dot plot.

First, let's address the upcoming tapering where we mostly know where we stand. As we noted yesterday, at the conclusion of today's 2-day meeting, the FOMC is likely to provide the promised "advance notice" that tapering is coming, paving the way to announce the start of tapering at its November meeting, a move which was hinted in a recent trial balloon by the WSJ.

Addressing this topic, Goldman recently said that the bank's standing forecast is that the FOMC will taper at a pace of $15bn per meeting, split between $10bn in UST and $5bn in MBS, ending in September 2022, although one possible alternative is for the Fed to accelerate the pace of tapering and cut each month instead of each meeting, thereby concluding its bond buying by next July.

As Goldman's David Mericle wrote, "while the start date now appears set, the pace of tapering is an open question.Our standing forecast is that the FOMC will taper at a pace of $15bn per meeting, split between $10bn in UST and $5bn in MBS, ending in September 2022. But a number of FOMC participants have called instead for a faster pace that would end by mid-2022, and we now see $15bn per meeting vs. $15bn per month as a close call."

Should the Fed react to the surging inflation and eventually announce a once-per-month taper, the QE over the next few months will look like this (market reaction notwithstanding, and it is very likely that should stocks tumble the Fed will be forced to put its tapering on hold or even reverse it and launch a brand new QE as Ray Dalio recently hinted).

In terms of messaging, Goldman expects that the September FOMC statement will include language similar to that used in July 2017 to foreshadow the start of balance sheet normalization at the next meeting. For example, it might say something along the lines of:

"The Committee expects to begin reducing the pace of its asset purchases relatively soon, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated."

Separately, Goldman does not expect the FOMC to reveal the pace this week, though the minutes to the September meeting might eventually provide a clue.

We will skip over the Fed's economic projections (we discussed these in depth yesterday here), while providing an amusing interlued from UBS chief economist Paul Donovan...

The Federal Reserve meets, and Fed Chair Powell (who is not an economist) will offer some comments on the economy. The fabled dot plot of individual FOMC members’ interest rate projections will also be updated—the sole purpose of this release is to increase confusion and misunderstanding in financial markets.

... and instead focus on the dots starting with a benign take, which once again comes from Goldman.

Here, the bank warns that the dots are a close call because a single participant could tip the balance upward relative to the bank's forecasts, which are shown in Exhibit 6.

Specifically, for 2022, only two participants would have to add a hike for the median to show a half-hike and three for the median to show a full hike. Still, the reason why Goldman does not see the 2022 dots relaying a half or full hike is that most of the potential marginal voters who could swing the balance are Governors at the Fed Board, and they are likely to join Chair Powell in submitting a no-hike baseline. After all, as Mericle notes, "it would be surprising if Powell showed a hike next year just weeks after his dovish speech at Jackson Hole reiterated his view that inflation pressures are likely to be transitory."

In light of the above, Goldman expects the median dot to show no hikes in 2022, 2 hikes in 2023, and 3 hikes in 2024, anticipating that a quarterly pace of tightening back toward the neutral rate will be appropriate if everything goes well. While this would put the dots well above market pricing, Goldman does not expect much of a market reaction because the dots are a "modal forecast" corresponding to an economic baseline in which most participants will assume that the conditions for tightening will be met. In other words, the market will know that 2023 and 2024 are meaningless, but 2022 - which is closest - does matter. Indeed, Goldman's rates strategists recently showed that markets have tended to put little weight on the Fed’s three year ahead dots in the past.

Before signing off, Goldman does warn that if it is wrong, the most likely surprise will be a hawkish one:

The risks to our expectations for the September meeting are tilted in a hawkish direction.  Some Fed of?cials have expressed greater concern about in?ation recently, re?ecting stronger wage pressures, increases in some short-term measures of in?ation expectations, and the possibility that supply chain disruptions could last well into next year.  

The two most consequential hawkish risks would be if the FOMC reveals next week that it intends to taper at a faster pace or if the 2022 median dot shows a hike.  Surveys of our clients suggest that the majority of investors do not view either of these as the base case, meaning that either would be hawkish surprises to current market expectations.  The Fed leadership has historically preferred to avoid delivering hawkish surprises at FOMC meetings to the extent that it can, preferring the information to be priced in advance.  While the dots are sometimes out of the leadership’s control, in this case we think it can probably prevent either of these two potential hawkish surprises from materializing this week.

But while Goldman does not see the 2022 dot moving higher, others are less sanguine.

One among them is Standard Chartered's Steven Englander who agrees with Goldman on the taper, writing that "a November tapering decision will likely be signaled at the 22 September FOMC but without details on the pace of tapering or the path of subsequent policy rates hikes, except by inference."

Here, however, Englander breaks with Goldman and agrees with us that the dots will be the focus of the market, the impact tempered by the relative market unimportance of Q4-2021 inflation and activity data releases compared to H1-2022 data releases. Cutting to the punchline, Englander thinks "the dots will suggest a more hawkish lean than is now priced in" and in a surprisingly hawkish forecast expects seven FOMC participants to indicate two 25bps hikes in 2022 – five a single hike and six no hikes.

This would leave the median dot indicating a single 2022 hike, "but with a hawkish lean given so many participants pointing to two hikes."There is a risk that the hawkish 2022 skew could be even more pronounced, but we do not think the 2022 dots will show a two-hike median. We estimate that about 18bps is priced by end-2022, somewhat low given what we expect

In a slightly different take from Standard Chartered's Steven Englander, he expects the dots will signal one 2022 hike (vs no hikes according to Goldman), and two added hikes in both 2023 and 2024. Specifically, he expects seven FOMC participants to indicate two 25bps hikes in 2022 – five a single hike and six no hikes. The would translate into the median dot representing a single 2022 hike, "but with a hawkish lean given so many participants pointing to two hikes" with Englander warning that "there is a risk that the hawkish 2022 skew could be even more pronounced, but we do not think the 2022 dots will show a two-hike median. We estimate that about 18bps is priced by end-2022, somewhat low given what we expect."

Looking into the outer years, Englander expects the dots to point to another two hikes in each of 2023 and 2024, adding that "Neither hawks nor doves want to give an indication that aggressive policy moves may be needed – doves because they don’t want to augment any downside growth risks and hawks because they don’t want premature pricing of policy tightening to derail markets. Inflation and growth data will speak in H1-2022, and there is no point in gratuitously unsettling markets far in advance of the decisive data."

Englander also takes a look at the FOMC composition in 2022, writing that "the 2022 regional Fed presidents who vote on FOMC are all pretty hawkish – Bullard, George, Mester and Rosengren. On the board, Waller is emerging as a hawk and even Vice Chair Clarida has begun to acknowledge inflation risks. The reliable doves are Powell, Williams, Brainard and Bowman. It is likely that a hawkish Quarles will be replaced because of his unpopularity on regulatory issues with Democrats, and one Board seat is unoccupied. But President Biden would have to appoint unambiguous doves to guarantee even a 50-50 split."

Why does this matter? Well, it will matter most when there is ambiguity on the need to act: "Hawkish FOMC voters may read an intermediate outcome, say 2.7% core PCE, as signalling a need to act, while doves might wish to give inflation more time to dissipate on its own. It is possible that the FOMC could split 7-5 or 6-6, or even that Fed Chair Powell could be outvoted. This is a very unusual situation for the FOMC, where dissents have been isolated in recent decades. The Chair being in the minority has not happened since the 1980s. We think the FOMC will look hard for ways to avoid such difficult outcomes."

Englander is not the only one expecting a hawkish risk: as Nomura's Charlie McElligott writes, "we see upside risk to the September “dot plot.” And while he thinks the median 2022 policy rate forecast will stay at the effective lower bound (ELB), he agrees with Goldman that the bar for a half or full hike is low. He also predicts that 2023 will continue to show two rate hikes, while 2024 – a new addition in September – will show an additional two hikes, similar to Englander, although he cautions that "concerns over inflation could result in more than four forecasted cumulative hikes by end-2024."

What does this mean for stocks?

Well, according to McElligott, whose note we discussed in detail earlier, the market is poised for a sharp move in either direction, but would need a “hawkish surprise”—particularly out of the ‘dot plot’, which would "drive some much-needed Rate Vol / upper left movement, via a UST selloff (today’s 133-00 TY straddle currently implying 4.65bps of yield move…so would need to see a larger magnitude selloff to indicate surprise vs mkt expectations)."

And, as McElligott concludes, "IF…big IF…we got a “hawkish surprise” Fed, one should look at those duration-proxy “Secular Growth” Equities as the area again most at risk, and where we see a LOT of market interest in downside protection in said QQQ / ARKK / Unprofitable Tech proxies."

Skew still remains “extreme” for sure, but in signs of a potential “pivot” off the worst of the extremes, we did at least finally see it soften yesterday—1m 25d Put Call Skew flattened by 50bps in SPX, while QQQ Skew flattened by ~ 30bps

But no doubt, there is still “energy” there to overshoot in either direction with some very real accelerant flows remaining on account of Dealer options positioning: currently we see SPX / SPY Dealers short ~$9.2B of $Gamma (6.6%ile, flips positive above 4411) while $Delta remains negative at -$139.1B (11.2%ile, flips positive above 4400); similar for QQQ, with REALLY negative $Gamma at -$709.6mm (1.3%ile, flips up at 375.02) and negative $Delta at -$16.5B (2.7%ile, flips positive above $373.85)

TL/DR: all hell could break loose if the Fed shocks the market hawkishly, and the median 2022 dot shows 1 rate hike.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 12:05
Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[Politics] Democrats Push Tax Breaks for Union Political Activity

House Democrats are fighting to give a tax break to workers, but only if they agree to subsidize union political spending, which pours billions into Democratic campaign coffers.

The post Democrats Push Tax Breaks for Union Political Activity appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[In The News] Amazon Is Awarding Cars And Cash Prizes To Warehouse, Retail Workers That Get Vaccinated

by Ailan Evans -

Amazon is handing out cash prizes and vehicles to its workers that receive the COVID-19 vaccine as part of a push to vaccinate more of its frontline employees. The company announced on one of its Instagram pages Monday that five employees were awarded cars worth up to $40,000 dollars as winners …

Amazon Is Awarding Cars And Cash Prizes To Warehouse, Retail Workers That Get Vaccinated is posted on Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[National Security] IG: Pentagon Reliance on Chinese Pharmaceuticals Creates National Security Risk

The Defense Department's reliance on Chinese supply chains for pharmaceuticals poses a severe national security risk, a Pentagon inspector general's report warns.

The post IG: Pentagon Reliance on Chinese Pharmaceuticals Creates National Security Risk appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[Entertainment] Hobby Lobby’s forfeited Gilgamesh tablet is headed back to Iraq, and authorities hope it will be a warning to smugglers Formal ceremony at Smithsonian to mark return of 3,500-year-old artifact that had been on display at the Museum of the Bible in Washington. Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[Markets] Crypto: Robinhood doubles down on cryptocurrency with new wallet offering Over half of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue came from cryptocurrency trading last quarter.
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[World] The Ratings Game: Stitch Fix stock soars after $2 billion revenue report but analysts are still hesitant Wells Fargo maintained its underweight stock rating based on the company's "controversial" story.
Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[] BLM Vow Another "Uprising" Over Vaccine Mandates Well, the media and government liars have been studiously ignoring that it is the black population, not Trump supporters, who are the most unvaccinated group in America. They won't be able to ignore that fact for much longer. via National... Published:9/22/2021 11:26:05 AM
[] David Frum explains that GOPers (esp. Trump voters) likes homoerotic Trump fanfic because they're overweight and unhealthy and physically weak [video] Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[Markets] Gold-Silver Ratio Opening Up Again Gold-Silver Ratio Opening Up Again

Via SchiffGold.com,

The gold-silver ratio has ballooned again, indicating that silver is once again a bargain buy.

During a gold bull market, silver typically outperforms gold. We saw this during the big runup in the price of both metals through the early months of the pandemic. In the third quarter of last year, silver charted its best quarter since 2010, finishing up 27.62% through the three months ending Sept. 30. Going back further, silver spiked 106.6% off its March 2020 low.

Prior to the pandemic, the gold-to-silver ratio was well above 80-1. In February 2020, it stood at 88-1. The ratio climbed to nearly 93:1 in the summer of 2019. As silver and gold rallied last year, the big increase in the price of silver pushed the gold-silver ratio back below 70-1.

In recent months, silver and gold have both faced significant pressure as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin to tighten monetary policy. Silver has faced stronger selling pressure than gold, and the silver-gold ratio has reopened, running at 78-1 today.

In practice, this means it takes 78 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1.

So, what does the gold-silver ratio tell us?

In simple terms, it signals that from a historical perspective, silver is underpriced compared to gold.

Here’s the historical perspective.

Geologists estimate that there are approximately 19 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold in the earth’s crust, with a ratio of approximately 11.2 ounces of silver to each ounce of gold that has ever been mined. Interestingly, the silver-gold ratio in ancient Egypt was 1:1.

In 1792, the gold/silver price ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 15:1. France mandated a ratio of 15.5:1 in 1803. Faced with the challenges of a bi-metallic monetary system with fixed exchange rates and the aftermath of a worldwide financial crisis, the US Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1873. Following the lead of other Western nations, including England, Portugal, Canada, and Germany, this act formally demonetized silver and established a gold standard for the United States.

With silver playing a smaller role as a monetary metal, the silver-gold ratio gradually spread. The modern average over the last century has been in the 40-1 to 50-1 range.

Commodities analyst Jason Hamlin said in an article published by Seeking Alpha, “The gold-silver ratio has been one of the most reliable technical ‘buy’ indicators for silver, whenever the ratio climbs above 80.”

We’re right at that doorstep.

Silver is much more volatile than gold due to its industrial role, but at its core, it is still a monetary metal and it tends to track relatively consistently with gold over time. When gold goes up, it almost always takes silver with it, and as already noted, silver typically outperforms gold in these bull runs.

The expectation is the Fed will begin tapering its quantitative easing program in the near future and this has created significant headwinds for gold and silver. But as Peter Schiff has noted, a slight slowdown in asset purchases does not equal a “tight” monetary policy. Furthermore, Peter thinks any tapering will be short-lived and the Fed will ultimately expand QE.

It knows the only foundation this bubble economy has is the Fed’s easy money policies. And I don’t think they have any actual plans to taper. And even if they just kind of feign the process by beginning it, they’ll never complete it because soon after they start the taper, again, if they even ever start, they’re going to have to reverse the process. Because ultimately, the Fed Fed is going to expand the QE program and start to buy a lot more government Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in the future than it’s doing right now.”

This is bullish for both silver and gold.

Silver has hit an all-time high of $49 per ounce twice – in January 1980 and then again in April 2011. If you adjust that $49 high for inflation, you’re looking at a price of around $150 per ounce. In other words, silver has a long way to run up. As one analyst put it, “With the long-term downside potential of silver very low versus its current valuation, the risk/reward is one of the best investments on the planet.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 11:25
Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[c4582324-680c-5715-a61a-bd2d0a4e331f] Nicole Richie's hair catches fire during her 40th birthday celebration Nicole Richie's birthday celebration was a lit occasion – literally. Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[Entertainment] Why Scheana Shay & Brock Davies Have Talked About Surrogacy & Adoption for Baby No. 2 Scheana Shay, Brock DaviesScheana Shay is SUR-ving up some adorable baby updates. The Vanderpump Rules star and fiancé Brock Davies welcomed their first child together, daughter Summer Moon Honey Davies, back...
Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[Markets] Join discussion at noon: What's next for the infrastructure and budget packages? Join discussion at noon: What's next for the infrastructure and budget packages? Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[Markets] Federal Reserve meeting days have been good for the stock market — until Powell starts talking It's Fed decision day on Wall Street and investors are awaiting the latest policy statement and outlook for interest rates with bated breath, as they tend to be market movers. Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[Markets] The Moneyist: My fiancée wanted me to quitclaim our home. I ran a background check — and found her to be a fraud and liar. ‘She lied about her age and college education, had several past lawsuits, and was in arrears with the IRS for over $30,000.’
Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[World] IPO Report: Toast stock pops 60% in IPO debut Toast Inc. shares popped 63% in their trading debut Wednesday, marking a warm Wall Street welcome for the maker of restaurant-focused software and payment technology.
Published:9/22/2021 10:56:59 AM
[] 'What an answer'! Bill Gates' interview with PBS's Judy Woodruff turns to subject of Jeffrey Epstein, and then it gets awkward Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Markets] Fashion-brand platform A.K.A. loses ground in post-IPO debut Fashion-brand platform A.K.A. loses ground in post-IPO debut Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Entertainment] Garcelle Beauvais Is Not Having Lisa Rinna's "Shady" Digs in Dramatic RHOBH Preview Lisa Rinna, Garcelle Beauvais, RHOBH screengrabReaping what you sow. For Garcelle Beauvais, her two seasons on The Real Housewives of Beverly Hills have come with plenty of ups and downs with her co-stars. And now, a recent sit down...
Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Uncategorized] Kamala Harris Supports Investigation Of Border Patrol After Fake News Story About Whips

"[Harris] is placing blame on agents to deflect because she and Biden are not going to change how they are handling this."

The post Kamala Harris Supports Investigation Of Border Patrol After Fake News Story About Whips first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Elections] SEIU Throws Weight Behind Mail-In Voting

One of the largest and most politically active unions in America gave $40,000 to a group that registers Virginians to receive absentee ballots in an effort to bolster Democratic turnout for the gubernatorial election.

The post SEIU Throws Weight Behind Mail-In Voting appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Markets] Macron To Confront Biden In Phone Call - Demands 'Clarification' On Australia Sub Deal Macron To Confront Biden In Phone Call - Demands 'Clarification' On Australia Sub Deal

Since last week's "shock" announcement of the AUKUS defense technology sharing pact between Australia, the US and UK - France has been venting its anger and frustration to the world - but has perhaps become even more incensed over what can be described as the collective shrug coming out of Washington and Canberra in return

President Emmanuel Macron is set to take his complaints directly to the White House after France was cut out of its some $66 billion contract with Australia to deliver submarines, as a phone call with President Joe Biden is set to take place Wednesday. "A conversation between President Macron and Biden is scheduled for today," French cabinet spokesman Gabriel Attal confirmed.

Via AFP

"The leaders intend to discuss under what conditions Australia's decision on the submarines was made," the cabinet spokesman added.

The US will now be providing its Aussie ally with nuclear-powered submarines in the coming years, allowing Australia to be among the handful of nations globally to possess them, which has angered China.

In recent days French officials haven't held back in their fiery rhetoric, calling the deal which they were not informed of until it broke in the press last Thursday a "stab in the back". France's foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian decried the backroom dealing nature of the whole thing as full of "duplicity, disdain and lies."

More broadly France has complained it's been deeply cooperative with allies in the Indo-Pacific region and now feels cut off from strategic planning and coordination. It has also threatened to go so far as to cut EU trade negotiations with Australia short. 

At the start of the week Macron's office said:

"We want explanations," Attal said, adding that the US had to answer for "what looks a lot like a major breach of trust."

This after Paris recalled its ambassadors to Washington and Canberra, in what was probably a first in history, given US-France relations had never sunk this low, even after during the Bush administration Paris rejected the US rationale for war in Iraq.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 11:05
Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[World] Jennifer Aniston Reveals the Texts She Got Over Those David Schwimmer Rumors Jennifer Aniston, David Schwimmer, FriendsJennifer Aniston has read a lot of false stories about her love life over the years, but those David Schwimmer rumors surprised her the most. "That's really funny," she told...
Published:9/22/2021 10:27:42 AM
[Politics] Liz Cheney gets a big time supporter to help her raise campaign cash The loathsome Liz Cheney isn’t going down without a fight and she’s just enlisted a big time fundraiser to help her raise some campaign cash: FOX NEWS – The only two living . . . Published:9/22/2021 10:27:41 AM
[Joe Biden] Biden’s Aides Won’t Let Him Speak (John Hinderaker) How far gone is Joe Biden, mentally? I don’t know, but his aides do. And the frenzy they display whenever it appears that Biden might have to talk without a script tells us that they think he is incompetent. The latest instance occurred yesterday when Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson did a joint appearance at the White House. They chatted for a few minutes and then Johnson took Published:9/22/2021 10:27:41 AM
[] The Morning Rant I've been seeing a lot of these type of stories lately: Bob Knob, a guy from Florida, who thought Covid was a hoax and didn't wear a masks or even practice social distancing died in the hospital last Saturday from... Published:9/22/2021 10:27:41 AM
[] Hollywood Finally Figures Out How to End COVID. Why Didn't We Think of This Sooner? Published:9/22/2021 10:02:14 AM
[] Glenn Greenwald breaks down 'massive scandal' that is Big Tech and media's coordinated effort to suppress and lie about Hunter Biden story [videos] Published:9/22/2021 10:02:14 AM
[Entertainment] See David Foster's Cheeky Response to Katharine McPhee's Steamy Underwear Text Katharine McPhee, David FosterSomeone call a doctor since we're pretty sure David Foster may have a little case of McPheever. Katharine McPhee proved that things between her and her husband of over two...
Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Markets] Transitory inflation will last longer than a couple quarters, strategist says Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief U.S. Equity Strategist & Head of Quantitative Research, joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Credit Suisse's bullish outlook on the S&P 500 and which sectors to watch in the second half of 2021.  Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[efacb97d-033f-5380-a4d6-4dc140b3becf] Willie Garson's 'Sex and the City' co-stars pay tribute to actor after his death: 'A source of light' Garson was best known for playing Stanford Blatch, Carrie Bradshaw's friend on "Sex and the City" and its movie sequels. Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Markets] Economic Report: Existing-home sales decline as buyers hold out for better prices, more options The median sales price for an existing home has risen nearly 15% over the past year to $356,700.
Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Markets] When Will "Transitory Inflation" Overstay Its Welcome? When Will "Transitory Inflation" Overstay Its Welcome?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

There has been much talk of “transitory inflation”, but the evidence is starting to suggest the term may overstay its welcome.

The Fed chose the word “transitory” to describe this instance of rising prices because of its imprecision. Transitory can denote hours, months, or decades. Using transitory versus a specific period provides the Fed freedom to be wrong but be grammatically correct.

While the Fed uses ambiguous words, Mr. Market may have more defined expectations. If investors grow impatient with the Fed’s transitory, bond markets may react. In such a case, how will the Fed respond to “enduring” or “lasting” inflation coupled with higher yields? If they are already tapering, will such conditions push them to speed up their pace?

Conversely, recent data shows inflation may be stabilizing. Maybe the Fed is correct, and inflation rates will normalize in the coming months. If so, will they hold off on tapering or reduce the rate of tapering?

In July, we wrote Just How Transitory is Inflation?  The article is a deep dive analysis of CPI. At the time, we sought a better understanding of what was causing inflation to rise. With two more months of inflationary data, an update is essential.  

Understanding inflation beyond the headlines helps us answer the all-important question: Just how transitory is transitory? From there, we can begin to assess potential Fed and market reactions.

Headline CPI Summary

In the latest CPI report, covering August, the monthly CPI figure rose by 0.3% or 3.6% annualized. The year-over-year rate is +5.30%. In comparison, June’s monthly CPI rose by 0.90% or nearly 11% annualized. Despite the big difference in monthly rates, June’s year-over-year change of +5.40% is only 0.10% higher than August.

As shown, the monthly CPI and core (excluding food and energy) are turning lower. While not as pronounced, the annual data is following suit. Two months does not make a trend, but it appears to be fulfilling the transitory definition. Core CPI, at +0.10% last month, is 0.10% below the average for 2017-2019. Headline CPI is only 0.10% above the average.

The headline data is supportive of the transitory narrative; however, it does not tell the whole story.

The Breadth of CPI

Digging deeper into CPI and looking beyond the headline averages may not support the word transitory. The graph below shows the CPI Index based on the median price of the goods and services in the index. Unlike the headline CPI Index, median CPI is still rising and at the highest level since 2008.

The distribution graph below compares June to August regarding how the prices of all the underlying goods and services within CPI are changing on an annual basis. We separate the data into 2% price buckets.

The blue (August) and orange (June) bars comparing the two months may look somewhat similar, but there are differences worth discussing.

In June, 75% of the CPI components were rising at a rate slower than the 5.4% inflation rate. In August, 71% were rising at a slower rate than the 5.3% rate of inflation.

The number of goods whose prices rose between 2% and 10% increased from 66 to 77. The number of goods whose prices rose by 2% or less fell from 72 to 55. While subtle in the graph, the number of goods shifting to the right (more inflation) is noteworthy.

52 of the goods and services have price declines from June to August. Six were unchanged, and 95 had price increases. Again, more goods are rising in price than falling.

The breadth of the market is not supportive of the transitory theme. A wide swath of prices are broadly rising, albeit not at an alarming pace.

Outliers

In the original article, four goods had year-over-year price changes of greater than 20%, as shown below.

  • Used Cars 45.2%

  • Gasoline 45.1%

  • Fuel Oil 44.5%

  • Other Motor Fuels 32.1%

In the August report, six goods had greater than 20% increases. The four goods from June maintain annual 20% rates of inflation. Added to the list are propane and utility services.

The inflationary outliers continue to be energy and auto-based. Both are rising in large part due to the reopening of the economy and supply disruptions. We expect both will moderate in the coming months. As this occurs, they will put less upward pressure on the CPI Index.

Employee and school cafeteria food prices are down well below 20%. Over time these should moderate as schools and offices come online. Such will result in inflationary pressures.  

Big Contributors

In June, 92% of CPI was due to the price changes of the ten largest index weightings, as shown below. Those ten goods played slightly less of a role in August, contributing 82% to the change in the index. Below is a comparison of the same ten contributors for June versus August.

The prices of Used Cars and Transportations rose at a lesser rate than June, but every other category was little changed.

In the original article, we warn Shelter prices are the most considerable risk to more inflation. Driving our concern is Shelter’s 30%+ contribution to CPI and rapidly rising home and rent prices.  As we show above, higher home and rental prices are barely making their way into CPI.  

What gives?

In our article BLS’ Housing Inflation Measure is Hypothetical Bull****, we stated: It appears impossible to calculate the BLS version of OER or rent.”

We remain concerned that a double-digit increase in rent and home prices (OER) will push Shelter prices higher in the months ahead. However, history proves reality, and the BLS Shelter measure has a near-zero correlation.

Flexible Prices

As we wrote in June, CPI tends to be heavily correlated with goods and services that have flexible prices. These are goods like gasoline, whose prices tend to fluctuate both up and down. The Atlanta Fed publishes data on flexible and sticky prices, as shown below.

The graph shows sharp increases in both flexible and sticky-price goods are leveling off over the last two months. Given the Atlanta Fed measure of flexible prices has a 96% correlation with CPI, we are hopeful the upsurge is halting.

Expectations

The graph below shows a glaring divergence between Wall Street inflation expectations and those of Mom and Pop. Five and ten-year market-implied inflation expectations have been stable since January. All the while, the University of Michigan survey of consumers sees steadily rising inflation expectations.

While Wall Street buys into the transitory theme, consumers are not. This divergence matters as personal consumption drives about two-thirds of economic activity.

The New York Fed, via their latest Consumer Expectations Survey, highlights why confidence is weak. Per their survey, expected inflation is now over 5% and rising. At the same time, expected wage growth is 2.5% and stable/falling. As a result, consumers expect to lose 2.64% (red line) in purchasing power over the next year. Would you be confident taking a 2.64% pay cut?  

Summary

We are witnessing unprecedented pressures on the supply and demand side of pricing equations. Forecasting, with such uncertainty, is challenging. As such, we maintain a humble approach to inflation forecasting.

The latest round of data provides some evidence inflationary pressures are abating. However, the breadth of the data tells us there are still many goods and services still rising in price. This difference may help explain why consumer inflation expectations are higher than the market’s and confidence is falling.

Just How Transitory is Transitory? We suspect the market will have its answer in the next few months. Prolonged rising or high inflation beyond December will likely get many to question if inflation is truly transitory. Until then, pay attention to headline inflation, the breadth of the data, and especially any effects from rising Shelter prices on CPI.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 10:45
Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Markets] Biden to huddle Wednesday on infrastructure and social spending with Democrats Biden to huddle Wednesday on infrastructure and social spending with Democrats Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Environment] Water, Water Everywhere, But Not a Drop to Drink? (Steven Hayward) It is long past time to check in with our friends at Kite & Key Media, a new venture founded and helmed by Vanessa Mendoza and Troy Senik. They are producing a series of snappy, short videos on current topics, and their most recent video below explains why there is something seriously stupid about having water shortages, even under drought conditions. Hint: Remember the old joke about how if the Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[Politics & Ideas] Progressives Hand Democrats Another Embarrassment
A ghoulish prejudice.
View Post
Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[World] Outside the Box: In 2017 I wrote that U.S. stocks were not overpriced. That’s still true. Why the 10-year outlook for stocks is much more attractive than for bonds.
Published:9/22/2021 10:02:13 AM
[PLTR] Palantir: Here's Your Opportunity Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Political Cartoons] A.F. Branco Cartoon – Life in Amerika

by A.F. Branco -

A vaccine mandate over a virus with over a 99% survival rate means we’re no longer a free country. Political cartoon by A.F. Branco ©2021. Donations/Tips accepted and appreciated – $1.00 –  $5.00 –  $25.00 – $50.00 – $100 –  it all helps to fund this website and keep the cartoons …

A.F. Branco Cartoon – Life in Amerika is posted on Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Quick Takes] Oregon State University Reportedly Spent $100K on Four Diversity Workshops

"Workshops 1-3 cost $28,000 each and workshop 4 cost $16,000, for a total of $100,000."

The post Oregon State University Reportedly Spent $100K on Four Diversity Workshops first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[topics:things/llamas] Meet Fifi, the llama whose antibodies could hold the key to fighting Covid-19 Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Markets] Europe Markets: European stocks climb in second day bounce with banks and miners in the lead Euroepan stocks shifted higher on Wednesday as investors waited for a Federal Reserve outcome and absorbed potententially positive news around indebted China Evergrande.
Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Markets] U.S. existing-home sales decline in August U.S. existing-home sales decline in August Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Markets] Federal Reserve to deliver policy decision at 2 p.m. ET The main question: when will the Federal Reserve start pulling back on its extraordinary monetary stimulus? Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Markets] White House Reporters Have Launched 'Formal Objection' About Biden Refusing To Answer Questions White House Reporters Have Launched 'Formal Objection' About Biden Refusing To Answer Questions

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

CBS News reported Tuesday that the press pool of White House reporters have launched a formal objection over the fact that Joe Biden refuses to answer any questions, with reporters routinely being yelled down and physically pushed away by Biden’s handlers.

The revelation came after an embarrassing scene in the Oval Office with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson answering questions, but Biden not being allowed to by aides.

Watch:

Johnson took the three questions from British reporters

CBS reporter Ed O’Keefe said that “Johnson took 3 questions. White House aides shouted down U.S. attempts to ask questions. I asked Biden about southern border and we couldn’t decipher what he said.”

CBS radio correspondent Steve Portnoy later reported that “The entire editorial component of the US pool went immediately into Jen Psaki’s office to register a formal complaint that no American reporters were recognized for questions in the president’s Oval Office.”

Portnoy, also president of the White House Correspondents Association, added that the complaint also extended to the fact “that wranglers loudly shouted over the president as he seemed to give an answer to Ed O’Keefe’s question about the situation at the Southern Border. Biden’s answer could not be heard over the shouting.”

“Psaki was unaware that the incident has occurred and suggested that she was not  in a position to offer an immediate solution,” Portnoy continued, adding “Your pooler requested a press conference. Psaki suggested the president takes questions several times a week.”

In addition, National Review notes that after Biden’s UN speech yesterday, French reporter Kethevane Gorjestani “was asked by a very startled Australian reporter whether WH wranglers were always so strict about ushering the pool out without questions.”

The pathetic display is a continuation of the way Biden’s handlers have been acting since even before he took office, shooing away reporters, giving Biden strict instructions on who he can take questions from, and even muting his mic when he goes off script.

A week ago, Republican Senator James Risch demanded to know who is in charge of controlling when the President is allowed to be heard, noting during a Senate hearing that “This is a puppeteer act, if you would, and we need to know who’s in charge and who is making the decisions.”

“Somebody in the White House has authority to press the button and stop the president, cut off the president’s speaking ability and sound. Who is that person?” Risch asked.

Tweeting out the video, leftists insisted the claims were ‘bizarre,’ ‘ridiculous’ and ‘absurd’:

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 10:15
Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[World] Outside the Box: With progress on good jobs for women stalling, it’s time for Congress to act Without the investments of the Build Back Better agenda, we are at risk of losing decades of hard-fought improvements in women’s economic security.
Published:9/22/2021 9:19:42 AM
[Politics] BREAKING: Biden admin setting Haitians FREE in the US despite claims of deporting them The Associated Press is reporting that Biden administration officials are setting ‘thousands’ of Haitians free inside the US despite promises to quickly deport them back to Haiti: Many Haitian migrants camped in . . . Published:9/22/2021 9:04:14 AM
[Opinion] Healthcare in the US is about to implode thanks to the woke left

by JD Washington -

Joe Biden and his radical leftist group of America haters continue to press for mandatory COVID vaccines for anyone across the country. They have successfully mandated vaccines for the military, federal workers, and he is attempting to pressure healthcare workers and American businesses into mandating them as well. Many healthcare …

Healthcare in the US is about to implode thanks to the woke left is posted on Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:9/22/2021 9:04:14 AM
[Markets] Key Words: U.K.’s Johnson tells Macron of France to ‘get a grip’ amid anger over AUKUS submarine pact Boris Johnson has said France should get over its anger at a partnership among the U.K., U.S. and Australia that saw the latter pull out of a major contract with Paris for diesel submarines.
Published:9/22/2021 9:04:14 AM
[Entertainment] Sex and the City's Kristin Davis Honors Willie Garson With Touching Tribute on Single Parenthood Willie Garson, Kristin DavisKristin Davis' bond with Willie Garson went deeper than the small screen. The Sex and the City alum, who co-starred with Willie as Charlotte York through six seasons of the hit HBO...
Published:9/22/2021 9:04:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies On Evergrande News Ahead Of Fed Decision; FedEx Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 200 points early Wednesday on Evergrande news ahead of the Fed policy decision. FedEx dived on earnings. Published:9/22/2021 9:04:14 AM
[Markets] Rabobank: Socialism For The Rich And Socialism For The Poor Is The Reality For Us And For Markets Rabobank: Socialism For The Rich And Socialism For The Poor Is The Reality For Us And For Markets

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Socialism for the rich / Socialism for the poor

US President Biden just spoke at the UN General Assembly, promised no Cold War, and offered nothing but international cooperation: French President Macron deliberately wasn’t there to hear it. China’s Xi Jinping stated all disputes should be handled with “dialogue and cooperation”, and pledged to stop funding offshore coal projects. That’s as nuclear subs and threatened nuclear strikes are the week’s other global stories. When do shoes get bashed on desks, and by whom?

This is all as the Wall Street Journal’s Lingling Wei argues “Xi Jinping aims to rein in Chinese capitalism, hew to Mao’s socialist vision”, echoing what I have been argued --again-- in “Profound or profund revolution?”, which explains the ideological roots of the new policy of ‘common prosperity’. Except Lingling has key quotes from people ‘in the room’, where all the elephants are for markets. Here are just some of the highlights:

“The Chinese President is not just trying to rein in a few big tech and other companies and show who is boss in China. He is trying to roll back China’s decades-long evolution toward Western-style capitalism and put the country on a different path entirely, a close examination of Mr. Xi’s writings and his discussions with party officials, and interviews with people involved in policy making, show.

In Mr. Xi’s opinion, private capital now has been allowed to run amok, menacing the party’s legitimacy, officials familiar with his priorities say. The Wall Street Journal examination shows he is trying forcefully to get China back to the vision of Mao Zedong, who saw capitalism as a transitory phase on the road to socialism.

Mr. Xi isn’t planning to eradicate market forces, the Journal examination indicates. But he appears to want a state in which the party does more to steer flows of money, sets tighter parameters for entrepreneurs and investors and their ability to make profits, and exercises even more control over the economy than now. In essence, this suggests that he aims to rewrite the rules of business in what could someday be the world’s biggest economy….the government would have a level of control that would allow it to steer the economy and industry along a path of its choosing, and channel private resources into strengthening state power…."Supervision over foreign capital will be strengthened," said a person familiar with the thinking at China’s top markets regulator.””

Yet I doubt even *that* is clear enough for The Street to understand. Portfolio managers who have been confronted with the above evidence are saying: “I missed the chance to sell last week but we are lower now, so I will stay long.”; “This is a buying opportunity.”; and “It’s behind us, time to buy.”

None have read a word of Marx, even after being shown it provides a guide to what happens next, and they don’t plan to. All they need do is not underperform the market and fail conventionally, “because whocouldanooed?” We will no doubt also have US-based billionaires and funds, like a hypothetical ‘Day Rallio’ or ‘Whitepebble’, telling us to go longer Chinese assets, or extolling the virtues of this system. And there are things to extoll: socialism for the poor at least aims to help those who are left behind, and recognizes unregulated markets end up in monopoly or oligopoly and exploitation. Yet that is not what they are selling, but high returns, when China is making clear returns will be low, and only in some sectors at all.

If you want a *logical* argument to go long Chinese assets, surely first one needs to have a view on the efficacy of a state-controlled economic model, in the same way one should believe in the tech of a start-up bringing an app to market? Then one needs to accept that it means the equivalent of the low-return-but-safe equivalent of what used to be government bond yields before the failure of free-market capitalism meant we have to pay governments to let us hold their debt. Even that overlooks the longer-run FX down-side risks and the whole Cold War backdrop.

Meanwhile, the great joke is that this debate --where there is any-- is taking place against the backdrop of the upcoming Fed policy decision. Markets are on tenterhooks to find out if the FOMC will flag a timetable for the partial removal of the $120bn in QE liquidity it provides to the markets every month, while talking about inequality. In other words, socialism for the rich. The removal of that would be truly revolutionary in the eyes of many, as we are about to undergo another dot-plot Rorschach test.  .

Meanwhile, economist Ann Pettifor on central banks points out what will happen when the internal contradictions of our system finally become too great for it to bear:

Fifty years ago, a US president closed the gold window, ended capital controls, and launched a new era of globalized finance. The “Nixon Shock” reshaped the international monetary system overnight, and then gradually changed the status of central bankers. Instead of acting as servants of the domestic economy, monetary policymakers have become masters of the globalized and financialized world economy…Central bankers’ status and constitutional role is therefore primarily a democratic question, not an economic or technical one.”

Does this point to higher yields or lower yields ahead?

The apparatchiks are already in place in places (and winter palaces), it seems, as “SEC’s Gensler likens stablecoins to 'poker chips’ amid call for tougher crypto regulation”. Gensler is quoted as saying: “History tells us that private forms of money don’t last long,” noting the US experimented with private money in the “wildcat banking era” from the 1830s to the 1860s, which “all had a lot of cost, a lot of problems.” Perhaps time to check if you are holding any NFTs of kulaks?

(And meanwhile, Zoom’s $15bn bid for Five9 is under review; the US says it is likely to keep Huawei on its blacklist; and the State Department is reported to be massively expanding its footprint on China, with dozens of new officers in DC and at global embassies to monitor it at all times. No Cold War. All cooperation.)

More and more, I am told that what I am talking of here is ‘too much’ for individual market participants to take in or deal with. They want to look at lines on screens; chase spot and ticks; play ‘The Price is Right’, and clock off at 5pm; do the same old deals; or put up stickers saying: “Workers of the world, unite!” or “Don’t tread on me”. We all like to look at the smallest changes in 10-year US bond yields all the time - yet heaven forfend if we have to think about what the world will look like in 10 years’ time!

Regardless, socialism for the rich and --or vs-- socialism for the poor is the underlying reality for us and for markets. It may be awkward, or complicated, or involve more thinking than usual about how to trade it properly, but it remains true. On which note, allow me to conclude with an old joke about clashing political ideologies:

“Under capitalism, man exploits his fellow man. Under communism, everything is reversed!”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 09:45
Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[World] Radical Academic David Weil Will Kill West Virginia Franchises and Jobs Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials stake out 200-point gain early Wednesday Dow industrials stake out 200-point gain early Wednesday Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[World] Market Snapshot: Dow up 200 points as stock market aims to snap four day skid with Fed decision in focus U.S. stock benchmarks rise Wednesday morning, with investors fixated on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which concludes later in the session and developments around China Evergrande.
Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[] Mid-Morning Art Thread Roi D'eclair Enrico Donati... Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[Politics] Witches Brew Starts To Bubble in Communist China, as Xi Jinping Edges Into Maoism In case you missed it, the Wall Street Journal features on its front page a blockbuster scoop, written by Lingling Wei, a veteran Chinese reporter. It runs under the headline: "Xi Jinping Aims to Rein In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao's Socialist Vision." In other words, Mr. Xi is going Mao. The pathbreaking market reforms of 40 years ago are going to be reversed. They'd been unleashed by the daughty vice premier, Deng Xiaoping, who, up to a point, modernized Communist China's economy and made... Published:9/22/2021 9:04:13 AM
[] Worse Than Carter? Meghan McCain Obliterates Biden—AGAIN Published:9/22/2021 8:26:52 AM
[] CNN Real News™ reporter John Harwood has been reduced to 'retweeting obvious boomer photoshops' to own MAGA [screenshots] Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Entertainment] Watch Nicole Kidman "Burn" Jimmy Fallon in Another Hilariously Awkward Interview Nicole Kidman, Jimmy Fallon, Tonight ShowNicole Kidman and Jimmy Fallon aren't exactly two perfect strangers. In fact, the stars almost dated. Yes, you read that right. The duo previously confessed their romantic history in...
Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[2cda20a2-7c69-5e6c-8261-a38f60c3da09] Britney Spears gushes over her two sons in birthday tribute: 'I'm so incredibly blessed' Britney Spears is opening up about an area of her life she rarely discusses publicly: being a mom. Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Markets] EV maker Workhorse's stock skids 10% on news of van delivery suspension, recall EV maker Workhorse's stock skids 10% on news of van delivery suspension, recall Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Uncategorized] Report: Many Haitians on Texas Border Released Into U.S.

Another person told the AP officials processed many of the Haitians "under immigration laws and not being placed on expulsion flights to Haiti that started Sunday."

The post Report: Many Haitians on Texas Border Released Into U.S. first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[2020 Election] The Biden regime mendacity is at a crisis level

The Biden regime is disintegrating before our eyes. Joe Biden is the titular President but he is NOT in control of anything. He is a puppet, a marionette manipulated by someone else. Worse, led by Jen Psaki (Little Miss Lying Hood) the White House is not spewing nothing but lies and propaganda. Here is Biden […]

The post The Biden regime mendacity is at a crisis level appeared first on Flopping Aces.

Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Markets] A Confused Wall Street Reacts To Evergrande's Debt Payment A Confused Wall Street Reacts To Evergrande's Debt Payment

After two anxiety-filled days during which China was on holiday and traders hammered Hong Kong trader property stocks, contagion fears arising from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis moderated overnight with mainland stocks declining less than expected on Wednesday as they resumed trading, after Evergrande’s onshore unit unveiled vaguely worded plans to pay interest due Thursday on a yuan bond, while leaving the fate of a $83.5 million offshore bond coupon payment in limbo.

As we noted earlier, in its filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Evergrande unit said that it reached an agreement with yuan bondholders on an interest payment due Sept. 23. It, “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house,” but didn’t specify how much or when it will pay the 232m yuan coupon at stake.

The language is potentially ominous because under normal circumstances, Chinese bond issuers would simply transfer money to a clearing house to complete payments. The “off-the-clearing house” approach usually means direct but delayed, or partial payment to bondholders. There could even be a lower interest rate involved. In short: it’s one way to avoid being called a defaulter.

As Bloomberg's Shen Hong wrote, "Evergrande may have secured bondholders’ agreement with a payment extension or at least succeeded in asking them not to act until compromise is reached, even as it misses the payment due Thursday."

In any case, the notice coupled with a 120 billion liquidity injection by the PBOC, the largest since January, and sparking hope that Beijing won't leave the property market in turmoil...

... ushered in relief across markets, with China's CSI 300 Index trimming losses to just 0.7% as of the mid-day lunch break after falling as much as 1.9% at open. Market participants said the development could provide support to stocks battered by regulatory worries, with an injection of short-term cash by the People’s Bank of China also boosting sentiment.

In any case, as the sampling of Wall Street reactions to the Evegrande announcement courtesy of Bloomberg shows, responses ranged from the cheerfully optimistic to the downright pragmatic, with some predicting this is the end of the Evergrande drama while others speculating that it is only just starting.

Liu Xiaodong, fund manager at Shanghai Power Asset Management Co.

“There is evidently a large disparity between what onshore stock investors make of the Evergrande risks and the broader pessimism offshore. I agree with local investors that Evergrande ultimately will not be a systemic risk, and authorities will take action to prevent it from being one, and this difference in attitudes stems from different read of the government need to get involved in risk containment.”

“However I don’t think the news today changes much and I won’t be trading much on company headlines since I believe that it will not be systemic and will only affect property and companies in the supply chain.”

Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia Pte.

“I think we may be seeing a temporary reprieve with some repayments aiding to provide a better-than-expected situation than many would expect. This also comes along with some injection of short-term funds by the PBOC, which suggests that they are monitoring the situation closely and are ready to step in if the economy comes under risks.”

Kelvin Wong, analyst at CMC Markets (Singapore) Pte.:

Short-term traders or investors that use momentum-driven quantitative strategies “are likely to initiate long positions for a potential mean reversion rebound play plus risk/reward ratio of such trading strategies are attractive at this level,” he said.

The Evergrande coupon news “has added another layer of positive feedback loop in terms of short-term sentiment that is likely to prevent the CSI 300 from a much more pronounced decline,” after the Hang Seng Property Index went into oversold territory this week.

Gary Dugan, chief executive officer at the Global CIO Office:

Evergrande news “will be helpful and hopefully suppress some of the inevitable volatility and downside after the holiday break. That said for confidence to return more meaningfully will need the market to see sight of the broad restructuring plans for Evergrande.”

Thomas Westwater and Daniel Dubrovsky, analyst and strategist at DailyFX:

“A liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China accompanied the Evergrande announcement, which only served to bolster sentiment further,” Westwater and Dubrovsky wrote in a note. “Chinese policymakers stopped short of cutting 1- and 5-year loan prime rates, however. For now, it appears that market-wide contagion risk linked to a potential Evergrande collapse is off the table.”

James Sullivan, head of Asia Pacific equity research at JPMorgan Chase & Co. told Bloomberg Television:

“Evergrande is still likely to default. This is not a company specific issue, this is a structural issue that will impact the entirety of the Chinese developer space but this will not become systemic. We see potential buying opportunities in less leveraged developers with lower inventory levels but we do not see this as a contagion risk for the rest of the region at all.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 09:15
Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Markets] Tax Guy: What to do if you’re the executor of a loved one’s estate — starting with when to pay the taxes As the executor, you’re on the hook for filing the federal income tax return for the estate of your deceased loved one
Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[World] : Should Evergrande fallout and one ugly trading week prompt you to reconsider your investment strategy? 'We're being tested to see if our portfolio allocation is appropriate for our risk tolerance.'
Published:9/22/2021 8:26:51 AM
[Entertainment] ‘Burning Man’ presents D.H. Lawrence in all his flawed brilliance Frances Wilson’s biography is an unusual look at the controversial writer. Published:9/22/2021 7:54:28 AM
[Markets] FedEx cites labor crunch and rising costs in reducing full-year forecast FedEx cites labor crunch and rising costs in reducing full-year forecast Published:9/22/2021 7:54:27 AM
[Markets] China Syndrome? Is Evergrande A Symptom Of Deeper Malaise China Syndrome? Is Evergrande A Symptom Of Deeper Malaise

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“If that’s true, we are very close to the China Syndrome ”

Evergrande’s imminent default is rocking markets – but few believe the collapse of a Chinese property developer could trigger a global financial crisis. What if Evergrande is just a symptom of a deeper malaise within the Chinese economy and its political/business structures? Maybe there is more at stake than we realise? What if Emperor Xi decides he needs a distraction?

Amid this week's market turbulence, and the overnight headlines, Evergrande dominates thinking this morning. The early headlines say the risk is “easing”. Don’t be fooled. S&P are on the wires saying it’s on the brink of default and is unlikely to get govt support. It’s Asia’s largest junk-bond issuer. Anyone for the last few choc-ices then?

The market view on the coming Evergrande “event” is mixed. Some analysts are dismissing it as an internal “China event”, others reckon there may be some systemic risk but one Government can easily address. There is some speculation about “lessons” to be learnt… There are even China supporters who reckon its proof of robust China capitalism – the right to fail is a positive!

I’ve got a darker perspective.

The massive shifts we’ve seen in China’s political/business public persona over the past few years have been variously ascribed: a reaction to Trump’s protectionism, China taking its place as a leading nation, Xi flexing his military muscle, and now a clampdown on divisive wealthy businesses to promote common prosperity.

What if Evergrande is just a symptom of something much deeper?

That that last 30-years of runaway Chinese growth has resulted in a deepening internal crisis, one that we barely perceive in the west? What if the excesses that have spawned Evergrande and the illusion every Chinese can afford luxury flats and a western standard of living is about to implode? Crashing oriental minor chords!

The looming Chinese property debacle will be fascinating, but it many respects will be similar and yet very different to the multiple market unwinds we’ve seen in the west. How it plays out will have all kinds of implications for growth, speculation and how global investors perceive China in the future. Folk are variously describing it as China’s Lehman Brothers, or the next “Minsky Moment” when speculation ends with a sharp jab of reality to the kidneys.

I’m thinking back to a story I read a few years ago about the Shanghai Auto-fair pre-pandemic. Evergrande New Electric Vehicles had the largest stand and was showing off 11 different EVs. Not one of these were actually available to buy – they were all models of as-yet unproduced cars. The company was valued at billions and yet never sold a single vehicle. This morning, it’s just another worthless business Evergrande is trying to flog. (See this story on Bloomberg TV: China’s Zombie EV Makers.)

The market is asking itself a host of questions about Evergrande’s collapse: How bad will its tsunami of Chinese contagion deluge global markets? When it’s going to happen? What knock-on effects will cascade through markets?

Perhaps the most important question is: Who will be exposed “swimming naked” when the Evergrande tide goes out? Who will be left with the biggest losses? As the company is definitely bust, these losses rather depend on just how China’s authorities respond.

Step back and think about it a moment – try putting these in context:

  • Fundamentally all business is about identifying a consumer need and filling it.

  • Fundamentally, greedy businessmen tend to get carried away because the political-financial system enables them.

  • Fundamentally, it’s just another burst bubble and who cleans up the mess.

  • In Evergrande’s case a thousand flowers of capitalism with Chinese characteristics grew into an unsustainable business – fundamentally no different from debt-fuelled sub-prime mortgages, or CDOs cubed, in the West.

The big difference this time is its China! China has done things… differently. The path China pursued in its recovery and growth since 1980 has not been without… consequences.

Thus far we’ve praised China for its spectacular growth and the creation of valuable companies under the red banner of Chinese capitalism. It is going to be “interesting” to see how the subsequent mess is cleared out. Questions about Moral Hazard are going to be shockingly simple – Government has made it abundantly clear that any wrongdoing by company executives will be punished in the harshest possible way.

More importantly, Chinese politics and business works on a very different playing field to the west. Forget the rule of law or the T&C’s of Evergrande bonds. It easy to dismiss and characterise the way Chinese business works as institutionalised systemic corruption – but it’s a system Ancient Roman Emperors would recognise as a patron/client relationship. Emperor Xi’s clients and his princelings will continue to benefit from his patronage in return for their support at his court, and will be protected in a meltdown. The system Xi presides over will have little motivation to intervene to protect western investors who find themselves caught in the Evergrande fiasco.

Where Xi will have to take notice is outside the rich, wealthy princeling cadre which increasingly owns and runs China. There will be massive implications for wealth/inequality among the Chinese people from a property collapse. With a third of Chinese GDP dependent on the property sector, (and about 4 million jobs at Evergrande), the collapse of one of the biggest players, and the likelihood others will follow is much more than just a systemic risk.

Property is a key metric in the aspirations to wealth of the rising Chinese middle classes. The same smaller Chinese investors and savers will likely prove the largest losers from the property investment schemes they were sucked into. These real losses will rise if hidden bank exposures trigger a domestic banking crisis – which apparently isn’t likely (meaning it is..). There are reports of investor protests in key China cities – putting pressure on the govt to act to mitigate personal losses.

Xi’s clampdown on big tech is painted as the Party’s programme to engineer a more socially-equal economy. He has pinned the blame for rising inequality on “corrupt” business practices and has his cadre’s waving books on Xi thought, mouthing slogans about “common prosperity” and “frugality”. These are going to look increasingly hollow if the middle classes bear the coming Evergrande pain, and the Party Princelings continue to prosper.

The really big risk in China is not that Evergrande is going to default – it’s much bigger. If the Party is seen to fail in its promise to deliver wealth, jobs and prosperity for the masses – then that is very serious. China’s host of failed EV companies, an economy still reliant on exporting other nations tech, and a massively overvalued property sector (that the masses still equate with prosperity) all suggest a much less solid economy than the Party promotes.

If the illusion of a strong economy is unravelling – who knows what happens next, but in Ancient Rome the answer would be simple… Blame someone else, and invade..

This could get very “interesting…” and not in a good way.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 08:45
Published:9/22/2021 7:54:27 AM
[] AP: Haitian migrants being released in the U.S. on a 'very, very large scale' Published:9/22/2021 7:29:38 AM
[Biden Administration] Life imitates “Clueless” (Scott Johnson) Over the weekend the Biden administration leaked the story that it was commencing deportations of Haitians under the bridge in Del Rio. This may be true as to individual adult men and women. However, as they say in the fact-checking business, it is mostly untrue. As I note in the adjacent post, the lead story in the AP’s Morning Wire email news roundup is this one, datelined Del Rio: “Officials: Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Entertainment] Lauren Conrad x Kohl's Cute Fall Fashion Finds Under $50 E-Comm: Lauren Conrad Fall Fashion Under $50We independently selected these products because we love them, and we hope you do too. Shop with E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a commission if you purchase something through our...
Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Politics] Young voters turned out in force for Democrats in 2020. Will they stick around?

A diverse generation of young voters, who will be crucial in 2022, have been galvanized more by issues than candidates.

Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Quick Takes] Native American Tribe Wants Name of Myles Standish Removed From Boston University Dorm

"Myles Standish is remembered by this lands’ first peoples for the extreme acts of violence he committed against their ancestors"

The post Native American Tribe Wants Name of Myles Standish Removed From Boston University Dorm first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Free Speech] [Bonnie Snyder] Things are Getting Messy CRT goes to court and to the state houses. Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally On Evergrande News Ahead Of Fed Decision; FedEx Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures were higher early Wednesday on Evergrande news ahead of the Fed policy decision. FedEx dived on earnings. Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[861f94d0-2574-503e-819e-906ed798ec83] Mayim Bialik discusses Mike Richards' 'Jeopardy!' departure, hosting Season 38: 'I am part of this family' Mayim Bialik spoke out about the improbable road she took to hosting “Jeopardy!” in the wake of Mike Richards’ controversial departure from the show. Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Markets] The Value Gap: Racial equality ‘was never baked in’ to higher education — but HBCUs have always been engines of mobility Adam Harris's new book, 'The State Must Provide,' highlights the implications of underfunding colleges that serve Black students.
Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Markets] Toast set for NYSE debut Wednesday after IPO prices well above anticipated range Toast set for NYSE debut Wednesday after IPO prices well above anticipated range Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Markets] Fed Urged To Fire Officials Over "Pandemic Profiteering" Fed Urged To Fire Officials Over "Pandemic Profiteering"

Two weeks ago, Fed Presidents Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren (and to a lesser, though still notable extent, Fed Chair Powell himself) were 'outed' for their multi-million-dollar stock and bond trades, sparking widespread outrage, bolstering claims that not only is the market rigged and manipulated by the Fed but that it is rigged directly for the benefit of Fed members like Kaplan and Rosengren who - whether they intended or not - benefited monetarily from their own decisions and their inside information that nobody else was privy to..

While none of the transactions appears to violate the Fed's code of conduct, CNBC reported, municipal bonds are an asset class that are far more niche that stocks or ETFs. 

Officials “should be careful to avoid any dealings or other conduct that might convey even an appearance of conflict between their personal interests, the interests of the system, and the public interest," the Fed's code of conduct says.

It was such 'bad optics' that less than two days after the widespread public fury at this grotesque discovery, the presidents of the Federal Reserve banks of Boston and Dallas said they would sell their individual stock holdings by Sept. 30 amid "ethics concerns", and invest the proceeds in diversified index funds or hold them in cash.

While we are sure the Fed officials hoped this would satisfy the ignorant masses... it has not. And as The Wall Street Journal reports, two advocacy groups and a former Fed adviser have said that The Fed should fire at least one (and perhaps both) of the Fed officials over their "pandemic profiteering trading conduct."

Better Markets, a group that pushes for tighter financial regulation; the left-leaning Center for Popular Democracy’s Fed Up campaign; and Andrew Levin, a former top Federal Reserve staff member and now a professor at Dartmouth College, are calling for the Fed to take action against Messrs. Kaplan and Rosengren.

“It’s time for the Fed to do what leaders are supposed to do:  Lead by example,” Better Markets president and chief executive officer Dennis Kelleher wrote in a letter sent to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday.

Messrs. Kaplan and Rosengren, both should resign or be fired “for having lost the confidence and trust of the American people and, one would think, the Chairman of the U.S. central bank,” Mr. Kelleher said.

As The Fed is about to shift policy regimes into a taper of its unprecedented fre-money-gasm-machines, Mr. Kelleher added:

“This is no time for the American people to lose confidence and trust in the Fed, which must be above reproach, not set the lowest bar for ethical and legal conduct,”

Some Fed watchers say the trading raises questions about who policy was designed to help.

“There are a lot of reasons that working people are right to wonder if the Fed has their best interests in mind,” said Benjamin Dulchin, campaign director for Fed Up.

“These trades are only the most obvious reason, but it makes it harder for the Fed to do its job,” Mr. Dulchin said, adding if he were Mr. Kaplan or Mr. Rosengren, “I would resign.”

There is, however, one man supportive of Kaplan - his predecessor at the Dallas Fed, Rich Fisher, who shrugged off the million-dollar trades as nothing, noting that in fact, Kaplan was "talking against his own book..."

But, 'Dick', actions speak louder than words eh? And now that he has been shamed into cutting all market exposure, who cares whether he is hawkish or dovish - he's made his!

Source: NorthmanTrader
Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 08:25
Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[World] Earnings Results: FedEx lowers outlook for the year amid tight labor market, rising expenses FedEx Corp. shares fell late Tuesday after the shipping and logistics company lowered its outlook for the year, saying that the cost of doing business rose more than it expected thanks to supply-chain disruptions and a tight labor market.
Published:9/22/2021 7:29:37 AM
[Markets] Evergrande's Vague Filing Spotlights Risk in China Bond Market Evergrande's Vague Filing Spotlights Risk in China Bond Market

By Shen Hong, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

A vaguely worded bond filing by China Evergrande Group is a fresh reminder of the risk when investing in the country’s onshore credit market.

Poor or insufficient information disclosure has long been a major obstacle in expanding the role of the yuan debt market. It’s also a big turn-off for global investors seeking exposure to domestic corporate bonds at a time of surging defaults.

In its filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Evergrande unit said that it reached an agreement with yuan bondholders on an interest payment due Sept. 23. It, “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house,” but didn’t specify how much or when it will pay the 232m yuan coupon at stake.

The language is potentially ominous because under normal circumstances, Chinese bond issuers would simply transfer money to a clearing house to complete payments. The “off-the-clearing house” approach usually means direct but delayed, or partial payment to bondholders. There could even be a lower interest rate involved. In short: it’s one way to avoid being called a defaulter.

Evergrande may have secured bondholders’ agreement with a payment extension or at least succeeded in asking them not to act until compromise is reached, even as it misses the payment due Thursday.

Even the generic, templated language of such exchange filings can be baffling too. The notice starts with a summary of the bond’s key terms, ranging from its code to which bondholders are qualified for receiving coupons. It also says the issuer “will pay the interest” on the bond on Sept. 23”, before adding that “below is the announcement on the relevant matter”. It perhaps could have been more clearly written as the issuer is “obligated to pay the interest”.

A closer look at the language in the prospectus of the Evergrande bond in question muddies the waters further. Puzzling language isn’t uncommon among issuers of Chinese local bonds, although some improvement has been seen after Beijing stepped up oversight of information disclosure.

But for now, we may never find out what exactly the deal is between Evergrande and its bondholders as the company isn’t required to disclose further about such “off-the-clearing house” arrangements. The developer’s crisis isn’t just a bad moment for China’s property sector. It also hurts confidence in the world’s second-largest credit market.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 07:30
Published:9/22/2021 6:52:16 AM
[topics:things/crime] Yorkshire Ripper declined shielding in prison before dying of Covid, inquest hears Published:9/22/2021 6:52:16 AM
[Markets] Bond Report: Treasury yields edge up as investors await Fed decision U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday climbed ahead of an important update from the Federal Reserve, with its Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time about the economic recovery from COVID-19, following an updated Fed statement and projection of future interest rates from policy makers a half-hour earlier.
Published:9/22/2021 6:52:16 AM
[Markets] Stock market news live updates: Stock futures gain ahead of Fed decision Stock futures opened lower Tuesday evening as investors anxiously awaited the arrival of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision after a volatile start to the week. Published:9/22/2021 6:52:16 AM
[] The Morning Report - 9/22/21 The Morning Report - 9/22/21 Good morning, kids. Yesterday, while riding a bus out in the hinterlands of Staten Island, feeling a bit disconnected from the current multiple insanities engulfing the world, I clicked over to the HQ and was... Published:9/22/2021 6:52:16 AM
[BABA] Alibaba And Its Salad Oil Moment Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Markets] Wuhan Scientists Planned To Release 'Chimeric Covid Spike Proteins' Into Bat Populations Using 'Skin-Penetrating Nanoparticles' Wuhan Scientists Planned To Release 'Chimeric Covid Spike Proteins' Into Bat Populations Using 'Skin-Penetrating Nanoparticles'

18 months before the pandemic, scientists in Wuhan, China submitted a proposal to release enhanced airborne coronaviruses into the wild in an effort to inoculate them against diseases that could have otherwise jumped to humans, according to The Telegraph, citing leaked grant proposals from 2018.

New documents show that just 18 months before the first Covid-19 cases appeared, researchers had submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, China.

They also planned to create chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily, and requested $14million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) to fund the work.

The bid was submitted by zoologist Peter Daszak of US-based EcoHealth Alliance, who was hoping to use genetic engineering to cobble "human-specific cleavage sites" onto bat Covid 'which would make it easier for the virus to enter human cells' - a method which would coincidentally answer a longstanding question among the scientific community as to how SARS-CoV-2 evolved to become so infectious to humans.

Daszak's proposal also included plans to commingle high-risk natural coronaviruses strains with more infectious, yet less deadly versions. His 'bat team' of researchers included Dr. Shi Zhengli from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as well as US researchers from the University of North Carolina and the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center.

Darpa refused the contract - saying "It is clear that the proposed project led by Peter Daszak could have put local communities at risk," while warning that Daszak hadn't fully considered the dangers involved in enhancing the virus via gain-of-function research, or by releasing a vaccine into the air.

Grant documents show that the team also had some concerns about the vaccine programme and said they would “conduct educational outreach … so that there is a public understanding of what we are doing and why we are doing it, particularly because of the practice of bat-consumption in the region”.

Angus Dalgleish, Professor of Oncology at St Georges, University of London, who struggled to get work published showing that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had been carrying out “gain of function” work for years before the pandemic, said the research may have gone ahead even without the funding.

This is clearly a gain of function, engineering the cleavage site and polishing the new viruses to enhance human cell infectibility in more than one cell line,” he said. -Telegraph

As the Telegraph aptly notes (and you'll never hear from Maddow, Lemon or Hayes), Daszak is the same guy behind a letter published in The Lancet last year which ruled out the lab leak hypothesis, and temporarily stifled debate on the origins of Covid-19.

"For more than a year I tried repeatedly to ask questions of Peter Daszak with no response," said Viscount Ridley, who has co-authored an upcoming book on the origin of Covid-19, and has repeatedly implored the House of Lords to dig deeper into the origins of the pandemic. "Now it turns out he had authored this vital piece of information about virus work in Wuhan but refused to share it with the world. I am furious. So should the world be," he added.

"Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance (EHA) proposed injecting deadly chimeric bat coronaviruses collected by the Wuhan Institute of Virology into humanised and ‘batified’ mice, and much, much more."

The documents, released by an international consortium of scientists known as 'Drastic Research,' were authenticated by a former Trump administration official. According to the group, "The actual DEFUSE Proposal Documents will be published in due course."

"Given that we find in this proposal a discussion of the planned introduction of human-specific cleavage sites, a review by the wider scientific community of the plausibility of artificial insertion is warranted," Drastic said in a statement.

Enhanced MERS?

One anonymous World Health Organization (WHO) scientist told The Telegraph that Daszak's grant proposal shockingly proposed plans to enhance the more deadly MERS (Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome).

"The scary part is they were making infectious chimeric Mers viruses," said the source, adding "These viruses have a fatality rate over 30 per cent, which is at least an order of magnitude more deadly than Sars-CoV-2."

"If one of their receptor replacements made Mers spread similarly, while maintaining its lethality, this pandemic would be nearly apocalyptic."

Just remember, the initial cover story started with 'bat soup.'

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 07:00
Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Entertainment] Why TikTok is Obsessed With Dr. Jart+'s Tiger Grass Cicapair Color Correcting Treatment EComm, Dr. Jart Color Correcting TreatmentWe love these products, and we hope you do too. E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a small share of the revenue from your purchases. Items are sold by the retailer, not...
Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Entertainment] If you love heroic fantasy a la George R.R. Martin, you’ll love ‘The Last Viking’ Don Hollway’s new novel is a fast-paced saga based on the life of Harald Hardrada, the 11th-century Norse adventurer Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Uncategorized] American Press Pushes Ridiculous Comparisons Between Spanish Flu and COVID

In its race for clicks, the press fails to explore many of the critical differences between the Spanish Flu and COVID.

The post American Press Pushes Ridiculous Comparisons Between Spanish Flu and COVID first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Volokh Conspiracy] [Josh Blackman] Today in Supreme Court History: September 22, 2005 9/22/2005: Senate Judiciary Committee votes 13-5 to send Judge John Robert's nomination to the full Senate. Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Biden Administration] Who’s whippin’ who (Scott Johnson) The left has found a scenario it thinks it can retail to defuse the invasion of the United States by Haitians and hundreds of thousands of others via our former southern border. They want us to believe that overwhelmed immigration enforcement authorities on horseback are whipping Haitians. We went from “whip,” to “whip-like chord,” to “horse reins.” pic.twitter.com/KMNJ9S14YP — Brandon Darby (@brandondarby) September 21, 2021 Kamala Harris emerged from seclusion Published:9/22/2021 6:22:11 AM
[Markets] : I am getting spousal Social Security benefits from my ex-wife’s earnings. What happens when she dies? You will become eligible for a new benefit
Published:9/22/2021 6:22:10 AM
[World] Lawrence A. Cunningham's Quality Investing: How the new and higher taxes that Biden and Congress are pushing would hurt stock investors and consumers Companies pass tax increases on to customers, while a capital-gains tax hike penalizes long-term shareholders.
Published:9/22/2021 6:22:10 AM
[Politics] Biden to pledge more vaccine doses to boost global inoculation rates

President Biden plans to increase the U.S. commitment to the global COVID-19 vaccination campaign.

Published:9/22/2021 5:56:39 AM
[Markets] Conservative French Presidential Candidate Warns Of "Civil War" Conservative French Presidential Candidate Warns Of "Civil War"

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Conservative presidential candidate Xavier Bertrand warns that France faces the risk of a “civil war” due its problems with gang violence and uncontrolled mass immigration.

Bertrand is president of the Hauts-de-France Regional Council and is currently polling in third behind President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen ahead of the national election, which will take place in April next year.

“There is today a real risk of civil war,” Bertrand told the Grand Jury program, adding,

“The president of the Republic must do everything to avoid it, and this requires above all the end of crimes not being punished. Any sanction must result in a sentence at the end.”

More specifically, Bertrand was referring to violent crime problems plaguing the outskirts of major cities, where immigrants have settled in radicalized ghettos and refused to integrate.

In response to the killing of criminals who become involved in violent confrontations with police, urban riots have become a routine occurrence in cities like Paris and Lyon.

“You have gangs, gangs fighting with Kalashnikovs; wouldn’t that be a civil war?” asked Bertrand.

The situation has become so unstable that some commentators, including Bertrand’s presidential rival Eric Zemmour, have called for such areas to be “re-conquered by force.”

Such ghettos have also been exploited by terrorists, including Salah Abdeslam, one of the Paris massacre jihadists, who hopped over the border to Brussels, Belgium and was able to hide out in the Islamic ghetto of Molenbeek for 4 months before being caught.

A poll taken back in April found that the majority of French citizens thought some form of “civil war” was likely as a result of failed multiculturalism and attacks on French identity.

The poll was prompted by a letter that was signed by 1,000 military servicemembers, including 20 retired generals, warning President Macron of “several deadly dangers” threatening France, including “Islamism and the hordes of the banlieue,” a reference to the fractured suburbs around major cities with high crime and immigrant populations.

While French authorities dismissed the warning as the work of right-wing extremists, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen asserted that the letter should be taken seriously.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 06:30
Published:9/22/2021 5:56:39 AM
[afb966a7-8d29-5342-b96f-b326f930da27] A timeline of the 'Jeopardy!' drama: From Alex Trebek's death to Mike Richards' ousting A timeline of the behind-the-scenes drama on "Jeopardy!" from the passing of iconic host Alex Trebek to Mayim Bialik and Ken Jennings being named temporary replacements after Mike Richards' departure. Published:9/22/2021 5:56:38 AM
[World] This $33 Sweater Dress Has 3,000 Five-Star Amazon Reviews E-Comm: Amazon Sweater DressWe independently selected these products because we love them, and we hope you do too. Shop with E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a commission if you purchase something through our...
Published:9/22/2021 5:22:19 AM
[af149b31-111e-5bbc-b5af-90e8dc9679a5] Ed Rollins: Why 2022 midterms could be a catastrophe for Biden The news cycle may have shifted away from Afghanistan, but not because the country is in a better place. To the contrary, the Afghanistan crisis is only getting worse. Published:9/22/2021 5:22:19 AM
[Entertainment] In ‘The Wonder Years’ and ‘Our Kind of People,’ Black characters grapple with their history “Empire” producer Lee Daniels debuts “The Wonder Years,” a worthy remake of the iconic coming-of-age dramedy, and “Our Kind of People,” a promising prime-time soap set among the Black elite. Published:9/22/2021 5:22:19 AM
[Markets] Retirement Hacks: When you should — and shouldn’t — consider investing in a Roth 401(k) A growing number of employers are offering these accounts but most workers aren’t taking advantage
Published:9/22/2021 5:22:19 AM
[Energy and Environment] The Gordian Knot of UK energy policy

Rising gas prices, energy companies going bust, Ministers discussing bailouts and empty reassurance to consumers. The central problem with the UK energy market is that twenty years of interventions have left it incapable of responding to supply shocks. The solution is not more intervention. Gas is fundamental to UK energy markets. It comprised 42% of … Continue reading "The Gordian Knot of UK energy policy"

The post The Gordian Knot of UK energy policy appeared first on Institute of Economic Affairs.

Published:9/22/2021 4:52:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Signal Stock Market Rally On Evergrande News; Fed Meeting In Focus Futures rose as Evergrande said it'll make a debt payment. A market rally fizzled Tuesday. A Fed meeting decision is in focus. Published:9/22/2021 4:52:23 AM
[Markets] PVC Prices Hit Record High As Homebuilding Costs Soar PVC Prices Hit Record High As Homebuilding Costs Soar

The cost of a key building material used in everything from vinyl siding to gutters to windows and doors to flooring to plumbing jumped to a fresh record high.  

U.S. Gulf Coast export PVC spot prices printed $1,900 per metric ton for the week ending Sept. 10, up more than 30% since June. 

According to Bloomberg, the latest jump in prices is due to Hurrican Ida disrupting 60% of the U.S.' polyvinyl chloride production. The hurricane delivered a devastating blow to petrochemical factories on the Gulf Coast as buyers go elsewhere for plastics. 

"We're now hearing some buyers there are looking to Asia for supply at the moment," Jeremy Pafford, head of North America's Independent Commodity Intelligence Services. "Expectations are that the tight supply situation will continue for several weeks."

Homebuilders and homeowners cannot catch a break when it comes to the cost of materials. Earlier this year, lumber jumped to new heights on supply chain woes but has since plunged, though it remained more than double the prices from COVID lows. 

D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the US, warned Monday that "significant disruptions in the supply chain ... along with tightness in the labor market" will dent the full-year sales forecast. The update comes as similar warnings from homebuilder PulteGroup earlier this month warned that "shortages for a variety of building products, combined with increased production volumes across the homebuilding industry, are directly impacting our ability to get homes closed to our level of quality over the remainder of 2021."

"Runaway construction cost growth, such as ongoing elevated prices for oriented strand board that has skyrocketed by nearly 500% since January 2020, continues to put upward pressure on home prices," said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. 

"Policymakers must address supply chain bottlenecks for building materials that are raising costs and harming housing affordability," Fowke added.

There could be more rallies ahead for PVC prices as there is no clear timeline on when petrochemical factories in Louisiana will come back online. One thing is sure: the cost of manufacturing PVC has risen due to soaring natural gas prices. 

As for now, the cost of building a home continues to rise, and it appears that inflation is becoming more persistent, discrediting the Federal Reserve's "transitory" narrative.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 05:45
Published:9/22/2021 4:52:23 AM
[Entertainment] Tributes pour in for ‘Sex and the City’ actor Willie Garson, dead at 57 Co-stars Cynthia Nixon and Kim Cattrall led tributes to the actor, who played Stanford Blatch in the series. Published:9/22/2021 4:21:54 AM
[Markets] Europeans Vaccinated With AstraZeneca Should Be Able To Enter US, Says EU Europeans Vaccinated With AstraZeneca Should Be Able To Enter US, Says EU

Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

People who have received two doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine should be able to travel to the United States once restrictions are eased, even though the vaccine hasn’t been approved yet by U.S. regulators, the European Commission (EC) said on Tuesday.

“From our point of view, obviously it would make sense for people who have been vaccinated with AstraZeneca to be able to travel,” Eric Mamer, a spokesperson for the EC, said during a press briefing.

“We believe the AstraZeneca vaccine is safe,” Mamer added, although he also noted that the final decision remains with American authorities.

The Biden administration confirmed on Sept. 20 that it will ease travel restrictions on COVID-19-vaccinated foreign visitors from November. It hasn’t been confirmed yet which vaccines will be accepted under the new requirement, or whether vaccines that haven’t been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) could be accepted.

The FDA has so far authorized COVID-19 vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson, but is still reviewing the AstraZeneca shot.

Thierry Breton, the European Union (EU) commissioner for the internal market, told AFP that he had a conversation on the matter with White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Zients, who “sounded positive and optimistic,” though Zients also noted that “for the other vaccines, for AstraZeneca in particular, their health agency would decide.”

EU commissioner for internal market and consumer protection, industry, research, and energy Thierry Breton speaks during a press conference following a college meeting to introduce draft legislation on a common EU COVID-19 vaccination certificate at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 17, 2021. (John Thys/Pool via Reuters)

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes the final decision on which COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for use in the country.

AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, developed in the United Kingdom by Oxford University, is approved for use in 27 EU countries, where about 70 million shots have been administered cumulatively, according to public data.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he is “delighted” the Biden administration reinstating transatlantic travel so fully vaccinated British nationals are able to visit the United States once again.

“It’s a fantastic boost for business and trade, and great that family and friends on both sides of the pond can be reunited once again,” Johnson said.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson walks outside United Nations headquarters during the 76th Session of the U.N. General Assembly, in New York, on Sept. 20, 2021. (David ‘Dee’ Delgado/Reuters)

About 18 months ago, the Trump administration announced that the United States would restrict flights from China, much of Europe, the UK, Brazil, and other countries in the nascent phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

Those restrictions were intact when Biden took office in January 2021, and the White House announced in July that it would maintain the restrictions due to the Delta variant.

For months, airlines and airline groups have been pushing the Biden administration to rescind the restrictions, as European and UK officials have eased entry rules for U.S. travelers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/22/2021 - 05:00
Published:9/22/2021 4:21:54 AM
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