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[Climate News] Virginia goes Don Quixote State will defy Trump, double down on renewables and CO2 reductions – and hurt poor families Guest essay by Paul Driessen Democrat Ralph Northam had barely won the Virginia governor’s race when his party announced it would impose a price on greenhouse gases emissions, require a 3% per year reduction in GHG emissions, and develop… Published:11/18/2017 10:23:34 PM
[Markets] How not to be a ‘sucker’ on FanDuel or DraftKings The New York Times Magazine has a fresh expose on the fantasy sports sites FanDuel and DraftKings, with an author who says he was a “sucker” that the dominant professional players can easily exploit. But there are ways to avoid being bait for the sharks that cost the New York Times author some $1,900 during the football season.
Published:11/18/2017 9:48:49 PM
[Entertainment] Kendra Wilkinson-Baskett Rushes to Emergency Room, Cancels Las Vegas Shows Kendra WilkinsonGet better soon, Kendra! After taking to Twitter on Saturday afternoon to tell fans that she was cancelling her performance tonight in Sex Tips for Straight Women From a Gay Guy because...
Published:11/18/2017 9:48:47 PM
[Science] Ohio governor candidate offers apology for disclosure of sexual history with approximately 50 women "If I offended anyone, particularly the wonderful women in my life, I apologize. But if I have helped elevate the discussion on the serious.... Published:11/18/2017 9:48:47 PM
[2017 News] Millionaire Author John Grisham Says Not All Men Who Watch Child Porn Are Pedophiles Millionaire Author John Grisham Says Not All Men Who Watch Child Porn Are Pedophiles. Sorry dumbass but yes they are. The kids in those movies were abused, watching excuses nothing. If you’re watching kids have sex it’s pedophilia and it’s a crime. “We have prisons now filled with guys my age. Sixty-year-old white men in […] Published:11/18/2017 9:48:47 PM
[8.5%] Russia-Gate Spreads To Europe

Authored by Robert Parry via ConsortiumNews.com,

Ever since the U.S. government dangled $160 million last December to combat Russian propaganda and disinformation, obscure academics and eager think tanks have been lining up for a shot at the loot, an unseemly rush to profit that is spreading the Russia-gate hysteria beyond the United States to Europe...

British Prime Minister Theresa May

Now, it seems that every development, which is unwelcomed by the Establishment – from Brexit to the Catalonia independence referendum – gets blamed on Russia! Russia! Russia!

The methodology of these “studies” is to find some Twitter accounts or Facebook pages somehow “linked” to Russia (although it’s never exactly clear how that is determined) and complain about the “Russian-linked” comments on political developments in the West. The assumption is that the gullible people of the United States, United Kingdom and Catalonia were either waiting for some secret Kremlin guidance to decide how to vote or were easily duped.

Oddly, however, most of this alleged “interference” seems to have come after the event in question. For instance, more than half (56 percent) of the famous $100,000 in Facebook ads in 2015-2017 supposedly to help elect Donald Trump came after last year’s U.S. election (and the total sum compares to Facebook’s annual revenue of $27 billion).

Similarly, a new British study at the University of Edinburgh blaming the Brexit vote on Russia discovered that more than 70 percent of the Brexit-related tweets from allegedly Russian-linked sites came after the referendum on whether the U.K. should leave the European Union. But, hey, don’t let facts and logic get in the way of a useful narrative to suggest that anyone who voted for Trump or favored Brexit or wants independence for Catalonia is Moscow’s “useful idiot”!

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May accused Russia of seeking to “undermine free societies” and to “sow discord in the West.”

What About Israel?

Yet, another core problem with these “studies” is that they don’t come with any “controls,” i.e., what is used in science to test a hypothesis against some base line to determine if you are finding something unusual or just some normal occurrence.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on March 3, 2015, in opposition to President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran. (Screen shot from CNN broadcast)

In this case, for instance, it would be useful to find some other country that, like Russia, has a significant number of English speakers but where English is not the native language – and that has a significant interest in foreign affairs – and then see whether people from that country weigh in on social media with their opinions and perspectives about political events in the U.S., U.K., etc.

Perhaps, the U.S. government could devote some of that $160 million to, say, a study of the Twitter/Facebook behavior of Israelis and whether they jump in on U.S./U.K. controversies that might directly or indirectly affect Israel. We could see how many Twitter/Facebook accounts are “linked” to Israel; we could study whether any Israeli “trolls” harass journalists and news sites that oppose neoconservative policies and politicians in the West; we could check on whether Israel does anything to undermine candidates who are viewed as hostile to Israeli interests; if so, we could calculate how much money these “Israeli-linked” activists and bloggers invest in Facebook ads; and we could track any Twitter bots that might be reinforcing the Israeli-favored message.

No Chance

If we had this Israeli baseline, then perhaps we could judge how unusual it is for Russians to voice their opinions about controversies in the West. It’s true that Israel is a much smaller country with 8.5 million people compared to Russia’s 144 million, but you could adjust for those per capita numbers — and even if you didn’t, it wouldn’t be surprising to find that Israel’s interference in U.S. policymaking still exceeds Russian influence.

Russian President Vladimir Putin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on May 10, 2015, at the Kremlin. (Photo from Russian government)

It’s also true that Israeli leaders have often advocated policies that have proved disastrous for the United States, such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s encouragement of  the Iraq War, which Russia opposed. Indeed, although Russia is now regularly called an American enemy, it’s hard to think of any policy that President Vladimir Putin has pushed on the U.S. that is even a fraction as harmful to U.S. interests as the Iraq War has been.

And, while we’re at it, maybe we could have an accounting of how much “U.S.-linked” entities have spent to influence politics and policies in Russia, Ukraine, Syria and other international hot spots.

But, of course, neither of those things will happen. If you even tried to gauge the role of “Israeli-linked” operations in influencing Western decision-making, you’d be accused of anti-Semitism. And if that didn’t stop you, there would be furious editorials in The New York Times, The Washington Post and the rest of the U.S. mainstream media denouncing you as a “conspiracy theorist.” Who could possibly think that Israel would do anything underhanded to shape Western attitudes?

And, if you sought the comparative figures for the West interfering in the affairs of other nations, you’d be faulted for engaging in “false moral equivalence.” After all, whatever the U.S. government and its allies do is good for the world; whereas Russia is the fount of evil.

So, let’s just get back to developing those algorithms to sniff out, isolate and eradicate “Russian propaganda” or other deviant points of view, all the better to make sure that Americans, Britons and Catalonians vote the right way.

Published:11/18/2017 9:48:47 PM
[Politics] Will feminist Mika Brzezinski FIRE Duetsche over his absurdly SEXIST comments? “Morning Joe” panelist Donny Deutsch said amazingly sexist stuff in light of current events, and he didn’t even do it in private. He wrote a frickin’ book about his sexist thoughts: “We . . . Published:11/18/2017 9:20:09 PM
[Politics] Will feminist Mika Brzezinski FIRE Duetsche over his absurdly SEXIST comments? “Morning Joe” panelist Donny Deutsch said amazingly sexist stuff in light of current events, and he didn’t even do it in private. He wrote a frickin’ book about his sexist thoughts: “We . . . Published:11/18/2017 9:20:09 PM
[Aeronautics] Back-To-Back Hindenburg Omens

About a week ago, we warned about the infamous bearish stock market pattern developing in US equities coined by some as the ‘Hindenburg Omen’. The pattern is known for its bearish tendencies developed after the Hindenburg disaster of 1937. The key understanding is breadth deterioration, when more stocks hit 52-week lows than 52-highs. Since the warning, a liquidity gap has developed in stocks thwarting any attempt at new all time highs.

Fast forward to this morning and a very ironic situation has unfolded in the skies 50-miles north of London. And no – it’s not a giant penis drawn by US-Navy pilots in F-18s - it’s a true ‘Hindenburg Omen’ as the world’s longest airship crashed early this morning. The £25m airship called ‘Airlander 10’ appeared to “break in two,” a witness told the BBC. Reports suggest the airship broke free from mooring less than 24-hours after a successful test. At the time, no-one was on board of the aircraft, but Bedfordshire police, paramedics and fire crews were alerted and treated a women who suffered minor injuries.

According to the Guardian,

The roads around the airfield were closed amid concerns that aviation fuel and helium could escape from the airship. However, police said they believed the helium would soon dissipate.

 

Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV), the company that developed the airship confirmed there had been an incident. It said the craft was not on a flight at the time and had since been deflated.

 

An investigation has been launched to find out what happened.

Local residents took to social media and snapped shocking pictures of the crashed airship appearing to be more deflated than Tom Brady’s footballs.

Another concerned resident indicated ground crews rushed to slice open the aircraft to release helium after the crash.

Airship community is in tears this morning...

The Airlander 10 is/was the world’s largest aircraft produced by Hybrid Air Vehicles. The airship is classified as a helium airship powered by four diesel engines driving large propellers on each side of the craft. Hybrid Air Vehicles originally built this aircraft for the United States Army’s Long Endurance Multi-intelligence Vehicle (LEMV) program in 2012, but was cancelled one-year later.

To give perspective of the Airlander’s size, a Boeing 747 can pretty much fit inside the craft.

Perhaps the United States Army made the right decision in 2013, as it appears the Airlander 10 has many kinks that still need to be worked out. In late 2016, the Airlander 10 had a slow motion crash during a landing approach where damage to the cockpit was heavily sustained, but the crew of two was untouched.

Bottomline: Back to back ‘Hidenburg Omens’ for US-stocks and now the largest aircraft in the world crashing this morning is an ominous sign and we hope it’s not a redux of 1937 where markets crashed in excessive around 50%.

Published:11/18/2017 9:20:09 PM
[Entertainment] Jennifer Hudson and David Otunga Split: Everything We Know Jennifer Hudson, David OtungaJennifer Hudson and David Otunga have split after 10 years, and with the breakup come some shocking accusations. On Thursday, the day the breakup was made public, the Oscar and Grammy...
Published:11/18/2017 8:48:16 PM
[Cardiopulmonary resuscitation] "Gasping For Air" - Atlanta Nursing Home Staff Laugh As WWII Veteran Dies After Calling For Help

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Staff at the Northeast Atlanta Health and Rehabilitation Center laughed as a decorated World War II veteran took his last gasps of air after frantically calling for help six different times, according to a shocking new investigation from 11Alive.com.

The investigation included the release of a never before seen hidden camera video that not only completely contradicted statements given by the nursing home staff but also proved, without a shadow of doubt, that the nursing home essentially let the decorated veteran die as if it were a joke.

The video is so disgusting that attorneys for the nursing home repeatedly tried to stop its release, going through a series of court battles with the local news station in which they hoped that the media would be ordered to censor the footage.

Thankfully, the judge in the case ruled in favor of actual journalism and the nursing home, after seeing no other possible outcome, eventually dropped their appeal to the Georgia State Supreme Court.

In the 11Alive investigation, the news outlet details the fact that a nurse who was on duty at the time directly lied about what actually happened before being confronted with the hidden camera video.

In the video deposition, former nursing supervisor Wanda Nuckles tells the family’s attorney, Mike Prieto, how she rushed to Dempsey’s room when a nurse alerted her he had stopped breathing.

 

Prieto: “From the time you came in, you took over doing chest compressions…correct?”

 

Nuckles : “Yes.”

 

Prieto: “Until the time paramedics arrive, you were giving CPR continuously?”

 

Nuckles : “Yes.”

 

The video, however, shows no one doing CPR when Nuckles entered the room. She also did not immediately start doing CPR.

 

“Sir, that was an honest mistake,” said Nuckles in the deposition. “I was just basing everything on what I normally do.”

 

[…]

 

When nurses had difficulty getting Dempsey’s oxygen machine operational during, you can hear Nuckles and others laughing.

 

Prieto: “Ma’am, was there something funny that was happening?”

 

Nuckles : “I can’t even remember all that as you can see.”

“The video shows the veteran calling for help six times before he goes unconscious while gasping for air. State records show nursing home staff found Dempsey unresponsive at 5:28 am. It took almost an hour for the staff to call 911 at 6:25a.m,” the 11Alive report read.

Amazingly, the Georgia Board of Nursing told 11Alive that the nurse seen in the above video, as well as another nurse on duty at the time, were only forced to surrender their licenses in September of this year, almost three years after the disgusting incident!

“Nursing board president Janice Izlar says she cannot confirm when the state knew about the video, but the board’s action came shortly after 11Alive sent her and other board staff a link to view the video,” 11Alive continued.

The deceased veteran, 89-year-old James Dempsey was a decorated World War II veteran who was from Woodstock, Georgia. Dempsey’s family received a settlement from the nursing home in 2014 so were unable to comment on the investigation.

Published:11/18/2017 8:48:16 PM
[Science] US Navy, NASA join search for missing Argentine submarine The lost vessel, the ARA San Juan, has been out of radio contact for three days since it disappeared somewhere around the southern tip of So... Published:11/18/2017 8:48:16 PM
[] Saturday Overnight Open Thread (11/18/17) *** Quotes of The Day Quote I It's a Bill of Rights not a Bill of Needs. Ted Nugent Quote II “When someone calls you a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe because you happen to disagree with them about tax... Published:11/18/2017 8:48:16 PM
[Science] Journalists say Maria Bartiromo blocked them on Twitter amid backlash about Trump allegations remark The Fox Business Network anchor said that "there are no allegations against the president." Published:11/18/2017 8:18:31 PM
[Business] The U.S. Is Crushing Its Clean Energy Forecasts

Paris, schmarish...

In a February 2007 report, the United States Department of Energy made thirty-year predictions for the country's energy usage and production. As Statista's infographic below shows, using data from the non-profit international environmental pressure group Natural Resources Defense Council, these forecasts have so far been smashed.

Infographic: The U.S. Is Smashing Its Clean Energy Forecasts | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

Martin Armstrong details that actual CO2 emissions in 2016 have undercut the 2006 predictions by 24 percent.

In terms of the energy mix, power generated from coal was 45 percent beneath the forecast while clean(er) alternatives natural gas and wind/solar power saw overshoots of 79 and 383 percent, respectively.

Renewable energy infrastructure is also expanding at a much faster rate than was thought ten years ago. 2006's prediction for installed solar was a massive 4,813 percent shy of the 2016 reality. The U.S now also has installed wind capacity of 82 gigawatts, 361 percent more than had been hoped for.

In fact, energy consumption in total was also 17 percent lower than expected... which is odd and perhaps a better indication of the recovery-less recovery's reality?

Published:11/18/2017 8:18:31 PM
[Coal] Climate Hypocrite President Macron Sucking Coal Power from Britain Guest essay by Eric Worrall According to The Guardian, a temporary shortage of nuclear power in France forced France to buy substantial amounts of “dirty” coal power from Britain – right at the time French President Macron was taunting President Trump, and pushing for climate trade tariffs against countries which do not share the EU’s… Published:11/18/2017 8:18:31 PM
[Entertainment] Serena Williams and Alexis Ohanian Jet Out of New Orleans After Fairy Tale Wedding Serena Williams, Alexis Ohanian, New OrleansIt's been a whirlwind wedding week for Serena Williams and her now-husband Alexis Ohanian. The newlyweds were married in New Orleans on Thursday night in an fairy tale wedding of epic...
Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[2016 Presidential Election] What a difference a year makes (Paul Mirengoff) In January 2016, Amy Chozick of the New York Times wrote an article called “’90s Scandals Threaten to Erode Hillary Clinton’s Strength With Women.” I don’t think, as it turned out, that the scandals ahd this effect. In light of recent developments, however, it’s worth taking another look at Chozick’s piece. Chozick began by reporting that at an Upper East Side dinner party hosted by the head of HBO, Lena Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[In The News] President Donald Trump’s Schedule for Sunday, November 19, 2017

By Rich Mitchell -

The White House -2

President Donald Trump has no public events on his official schedule but check back often as his weekends often include non-public outings and we will report them as they happen. President Trump’s schedule for 11/19/17 No public events

President Donald Trump’s Schedule for Sunday, November 19, 2017 is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[Austrian School of Economics] We're Living In The Age Of Capital Consumption

Authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle via The Mises Institute,

When capital is mentioned in the present-day political debate, the term is usually subject to a rather one-dimensional interpretation: Whether capital saved by citizens, the question of capital reserves held by pension funds, the start-up capital of young entrepreneurs or capital gains taxes on investments are discussed – in all these cases capital is equivalent to “money.” Yet capital is distinct from money, it is a largely irreversible, definite structure, composed of heterogeneous elements which can be (loosely) described as goods, knowledge, context, human beings, talents and experience. Money is “only” the simplifying aid that enables us to record the incredibly complex heterogeneous capital structure in a uniform manner. It serves as a basis for assessing the value of these diverse forms of capital.

Modern economics textbooks usually refer to capital with the letter “C”. This conceptual approach blurs the important fact that capital is not merely a single magnitude, an economic variable representing a magically self-replicating homogenous blob but a heterogeneous structure. Among the various economic schools of thought it is first and foremost the Austrian School of Economics, which stresses the heterogeneity of capital. Furthermore, Austrians have correctly recognized, that capital does not automatically grow or perpetuate itself. Capital must be actively created and maintained, through production, saving, and sensible investment.

Moreover, Austrians emphasize that one has to differentiate between two types of goods in the production process: consumer goods and capital goods. Consumer goods are used in immediate consumption – such as food. Consumer goods are a means to achieve an end directly. Thus, food helps to directly achieve the end of satisfying the basic need for nutrition. Capital goods differ from consumer goods in that they are way-stations toward the production of consumer goods which can be used to achieve ultimate ends. Capital goods therefore are means to achieve ends indirectly. A commercial oven (used for commercial purposes) is a capital good, which enables the baker to produce bread for consumers. 

Through capital formation, one creates the potential means to boost productivity. The logical precondition for this is that the production of consumer goods must be temporarily decreased or even stopped, as scarce resources are redeployed toward the production of capital goods. If current production processes generate only fewer or no consumer goods, it follows that consumption will have to be reduced by the quantity of consumer goods no longer produced. Every deepening of the production structure therefore involves taking detours.

Capital formation is therefore always an attempt to generate larger returns in the long term by adopting more roundabout methods of production. Such higher returns are by no means guaranteed though, as the roundabout methods chosen may turn out to be misguided. In the best case only those roundabout methods will ultimately be continued, which do result in greater productivity. It is therefore fair to assume that a more capital-intensive production structure will generate more output than a less capital-intensive one. The more prosperous an economic region, the more capital-intensive its production structure is. The fact that the generations currently living in our society are able to enjoy such a high standard of living is the result of decades or even centuries of both cultural and economic capital accumulation by our forebears.

Once a stock of capital has been accumulated, it is not destined to be eternal. Capital is thoroughly transitory, it wears out, it is used up in the production process, or becomes entirely obsolete. Existing capital requires regularly recurring reinvestment, which can usually be funded directly out of the return capital generates. If reinvestment is neglected because the entire output or more is consumed, the result is capital consumption.

It is not only the dwindling understanding of the nature of capital that leads us to consume it without being aware of it. It is also the framework of the real economy which unwittingly drives us to do so. In 1971 money was finally cut loose entirely from the gold anchor and we entered the “paper money era.” In retrospect, it has to be stated that cutting the last tie to gold was a fatal mistake. Among other things, it has triggered unprecedented instability in interest rates. While interest rates displayed relatively little volatility as long as money was still tied to gold, they surged dramatically after 1971, reaching a peak of approximately 16 percent in 1981 (10-year treasury yield), before beginning a nosedive that continues until today. This massive decline in interest rates over the past 35 years has gradually eroded the capital stock.

An immediately obvious effect is the decline in so-called “yield purchasing power”. The concept describes what the income from savings, or more precisely the interest return on savings, will purchase in terms of goods. The opportunity to generate interest income from savings has of course decreased quite drastically. Once zero or even negative interest rate territory is reached, the return on saved capital is obviously no longer large enough to enable one to live from it, let alone finance a reasonable standard of living. Consequently, saved capital has to be consumed in order to secure one's survival. Capital consumption is glaringly obvious in this case.

It is beyond question that massive capital consumption is taking place nowadays, yet not all people are affected by it to the same extent. On the one hand, the policy of artificially reducing the interest as orchestrated by the central banks does negatively influence the entrepreneurs’ tasks. Investments, especially capital-intensive investments seem to be more profitable as compared to a realistic, i. e. non-interventionist level, profits are thus higher and reserves lower. These and other inflation-induced errors promote capital consumption.

On the other hand, counteracting capital consumption are technological progress and the rapid expansion of our areas of economic activity into Eastern Europe and Asia in recent decades, due to the collapse of communism and the fact that many countries belatedly caught up with the monetary and industrial revolution in its wake. Without this catching-up process it would have been necessary to restrict consumption in Western countries a long time ago already.

At the same time, the all-encompassing redistributive welfare state, which either directly through taxes or indirectly through the monetary system continually shifts and reallocates large amounts of capital, manages to paper over the effects of capital consumption to some extent. It remains to be seen how much longer this can continue. Once the stock of capital is depleted, the awakening will be rude. We are certain, that gold is an essential part of any portfolio in this stage of the economic cycle.

 

Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[The Blog] A twenty year trail of voter fraud in Maryland

One "John Doe" down. How many to go?

The post A twenty year trail of voter fraud in Maryland appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[Politics] Aaaand Lena Dunham APOLOGIZES for backing her friend against rape allegations… Well that was quick. Lena Dunham has already apologized for not being feminist-woke enough and defending her friend against rape allegations. Of an underage girl. Here’s her statement: As feminists, we live . . . Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[Politics] Aaaand Lena Dunham APOLOGIZES for backing her friend against rape allegations… Well that was quick. Lena Dunham has already apologized for not being feminist-woke enough and defending her friend against rape allegations. Of an underage girl. Here’s her statement: As feminists, we live . . . Published:11/18/2017 7:48:20 PM
[World] Moore critic: Alabama Senate race a battle for nation's soul BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) — A leading figure among religious liberals says the candidacy of Republican Roy Moore for U.S. Senate is a struggle for the "soul of the nation." Published:11/18/2017 7:19:25 PM
[The Declaration] Poll: Here's How Many Americans Will Spend Turkey Day Avoiding Politics at All Costs "We can keep it civil when it's just us..." Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[World] Wall of buses ready at Palm Beach airport in anticipation of Trump visit for Thanksgiving At the airport where Air Force One usually lands for such trips, wall-to-wall yellow school buses have been parked along the fence. Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[structure:news] Owners of lynx zoo 'should lose their licence' Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[Budget Deficit] Who's Next? Venezuela's Collapse Puts These Nations At Risk

"It's a wake-up call for a lot of people who will say ‘Look, the stuff I own is actually very risky'..." warns Ray Jian, who oversees about $6 billion at Pioneer Investment Management Ltd. in London. "People have been ignoring risks in places like Lebanon for a long time," and the official default of Venezuela this week has emerging-market money managers are looking to identify countries that might run into trouble down the road.

While Bloomberg reports that while none are nearly as badly off as Venezuela - where a combination of low oil prices, economic mismanagement and U.S. sanctions did the country intraders are scouting for credit risk, from Lebanon, where Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s sudden resignation has once again thrust the nation into a Saudi-Iran proxy war, to Ecuador, where recently elected President Lenin Moreno continues to expand the debt load in a country with a history as a serial defaulter.

1. Lebanon:

One of the world’s most indebted countries, Lebanon may hit a debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 152 percent this year, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts. That’s coming at a time when political tension is rising. Hariri’s abrupt resignation, announced from Riyadh on Nov. 4, triggered about $800 million of withdrawals from the country as investors speculated that the nation would be in the crosshairs of a regional feud between the Saudis and Iranians. While the central bank says the worst may be over, credit-default swaps have hit a nine-year high.

2. Ecuador:

After a borrowing spree, the Andean nation’s external debt obligations over the next 12 months ballooned to a nine-year high relative to the size of its GDP. Ecuador probably has the highest default risk after Venezuela, according to Robert Koenigsberger, the chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management. The country will be vulnerable “when the liquidity environment changes and they can no longer go to the market to get $2.5 billion to plug the hole," he said. Finance Minister Carlos de la Torre told Bloomberg in an email on Thursday that there is "no default risk" for any of Ecuador’s debt commitments and the nation’s indebtedness is nowhere near "critical" levels.

3. Ukraine:

While the Eastern European nation’s credit-default swaps have declined from their 2015 highs, persistent economic struggles are giving traders reason for caution. GDP expansion has slowed for three consecutive quarters and the World Bank warns that the economy is at risk of falling into a low-growth trap. Ukraine’s parliament approved next year’s budget on Tuesday as it eyes a $17.5 billion international bailout.

4. Egypt:

Egypt’s credit-default swaps are hovering near the highest since September. The cost for protection surged in June as regional tensions heated up amid a push by the Saudis to isolate Qatar. While Egypt has been able to boost foreign-currency reserves and is on course to repay $14 billion in principal and interest in 2018, its foreign debt has climbed to $79 billion from $55.8 billion a year earlier.

5. Pakistan:

Pakistan’s credit-default swaps surged in late October and linger near their highest level since June. South Asia’s second-largest economy faces challenges as it struggles with dwindling foreign reserves, rising debt payments and a ballooning current account deficit. Pakistan is mulling a potential $2 billion debt sale later this year. Speaking at the Bloomberg Pakistan Economic Forum last week, central bank Deputy Governor Jameel Ahmad played down concerns over the country’s widening twin deficits.

6. Bahrain:

Bahrain’s spread rose dramatically in late October to the highest since January after it was said to ask Gulf allies for aid. The nation is seeking to replenish international reserves and avert a currency devaluation as oil prices batter the six Gulf Cooperation Council oil producers. Although its neighbors are likely to help, Bahrain could still be left with the highest budget deficit in the region, according to the IMF.

7. Turkey:

Despite high yields, investors are still reluctant to buy Turkish bonds. The nation has been caught up in a blur of political crises, driving spreads on credit-default swaps to their highest level since May. Turkey was the only holdover on S&P Global Ratings’s latest “Fragile Five” list of countries most vulnerable to normalization in global monetary conditions.

Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[Science] Hillary Clinton: Bill 'didn't tweet' about his problems in the White House "She added, “Between tweeting and golfing, how does he get anything done?" Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[Uncategorized] Palestinian Negotiator: If PLO D.C. office closed, we’ll cut off communications with Trump Admin Saeb Erekat, fresh off his American lung transplant, huffs and puffs Published:11/18/2017 7:19:23 PM
[01db4cc7-8afe-44fe-8e04-26768fd7869b] 'Three's Company' actress Ann Wedgeworth dies at 83 Actress Ann Wedgeworth, who gained fame on film and Broadway before taking on the role of a flirty divorcee on "Three's Company," has died at age 83. Published:11/18/2017 7:19:22 PM
[58b91cae-c8d6-4d96-932e-5f21f2b78dca] Weinstein made list of names, gathered intel to silence claims, report says Ousted Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein compiled a secret list of people to have investigated because of potential information they may have had regarding his alleged sexual assaults, The Guardian reported. Published:11/18/2017 6:49:01 PM
[source:wirecopy] Bad weather hinders search for missing Argentine submarine Published:11/18/2017 6:49:01 PM
[Australia] The Coming Economic Downturn In Canada

Authored by Deb Shaw via MarketsNow.com,

  • Canadian GDP growth has outperformed this year, helping the Canadian dollar
  • As GDP growth slows and the Bank of Canada turns neutral, catalysts turning negative
  • Crude oil and real estate look set for a downturn, with negative implications for the currency

Given its natural resource-based economy, Canada is a boom and bust kind of place. This year, the country has enjoyed a significant boom. Thanks to a government stimulus program, rising corporate capital expenditures and consumer spending, Canada’s GDP growth has been nothing short of spectacular in 2017. According to Statistics Canada, the latest reading for year-over-year GDP growth is a healthy 3.5% (as of August 2017). While this is stronger than all major developed countries, growth is decelerating from its most recent peak in May 2017 (when GDP growth was an astounding 4.7%). A visual overview of historical GDP growth is shown below for reference:

Turning a corner: Canadian growth comes back down to earth

11-17-2017 CAD GDP growth

Source: Statistics Canada

Following the crude oil bust in the second quarter of 2014, Canadian growth rates cratered. While the country avoided a technical recession, the economic outlook was poor until early 2016. After crude oil returned to a bull market in the first quarter of 2016, the fortunes of the country turned. Given limited growth in 2015, the economy had no problem delivering 2%+ year-over-year growth rates in 2016. As a substantial stimulus program ramped up government spending in 2017, growth rates have continued to accelerate this year.

Storm clouds on the horizon: crude oil and real estate

While Canada has delivered exceptional growth in the last two years, the future outlook is much more challenging. Beyond the issue of base effects (mathematically, year-over-year GDP growth will be much tougher next year), key sectors including the oil & gas industry and Canadian real estate look ripe for a downturn.

Crude bull market intact today, but at risk in 2018

As WTI crude strengthens beyond $55, crude oil is clearly in a bull market today. Looking at figures from the International Energy Agency, global demand growth continues to run ahead of supply growth. Thus the ongoing bull market is supported by fundamentals. Thanks to the impact of hurricanes and infrastructure bottlenecks in 2017, US shale hasn’t entirely fulfilled its role as the global ‘swing producer’ this year. The dynamics of supply growth versus demand growth are shown below:

Who invited American shale? US supply ruins the crude oil party

10-13-2017 crude oil supply demand

Source: International Energy Agency, forward OPEC supply estimates via US EIA

Unfortunately, the status quo looks set to change as US supply returns with a vengeance. According to estimates from the IEA, supply growth will outstrip demand growth in the first quarter of 2018. Digging deeper into supply estimates, US shale is once again to blame. Our view is that this changing dynamic will lead to a new bear market in crude oil. Looking back at recent history, crude prices formed a long-term top in the second quarter of 2014 once supply growth overtook demand. Similarly, crude prices bottomed in the first quarter of 2016 once supply growth fell below demand in early 2016. Given Canada's dependence on crude oil exports, a bear market for the commodity is likely to result in a weaker currency.

As China enters its latest real estate downturn, Canada not far behind

While Canadian real estate has enjoyed a great year, the future outlook is much tougher. Similar to its peers in Australia and New Zealand, Canadian real estate prices tend to lag real estate prices in China. This is both because Canada’s economy is deeply intertwined with China, and because the country is a big destination for overseas investment from China. While overseas investors make up a relatively small portion of buyers (around 5% according to government estimates), they serve an important role by acting as the marginal buyer for prime property. A comparison of new house prices in China versus Canada is shown below for reference:

Canadian real estate boom set to run out of steam

11-17-2017 China Canada real estate

Source: Statistics Canada, China National Bureau of Statistics

As Chinese new house prices accelerated significantly in early 2015, Canadian real estate prices followed in 2016. As the Chinese market is now decelerating, negative growth appears to be on the horizon. In March 2015, Chinese house price growth bottomed at -6.1%. While the Canadian bull market continues for now (September new house prices registered at 3.8%), a downturn is likely over the next 6-12 months. As real estate makes up 13% of Canadian GDP, a significant decline in the fortunes of the industry are likely to spill over to the broader economy.

Implications for the Canadian dollar

At the beginning of the year, the Canadian dollar enjoyed a wide number of bullish catalysts including accelerating GDP growth, rising rate hike expectations, a relatively strong crude oil market and speculator sentiment that was at a bearish extreme. These catalysts, and the Bank of Canada’s actions in particular, helped the currency strengthen until late September.

Today, almost every factor that drives the Canadian dollar is working against it. Future GDP growth rates are set to keep decelerating. Looking at the Bank of Canada, its outlook for future rate hikes is now “cautious”. This is a big change from its hawkish tilt earlier this year. While speculator sentiment is no longer at bullish extremes, waning interest in the Canadian dollar is weighing on the currency. The ongoing NAFTA negotiations are another source of potential political risk. Finally, an impending downturn for both crude oil and Canadian real estate further worsen the picture. Thus, our longer term outlook on the Canadian dollar is bearish.

 

Published:11/18/2017 6:49:01 PM
[Political correctness] Only One Kind of Apple Apparently (Steven Hayward) When you go to the produce section of the store, you have your choice of various kinds of apples to select: red delicious, macintosh, green, etc. You might even call it a diversity of apples to choose from. When it comes to the Apple Corporation, however, it seems diversity means uniformity. We reported last month about how Apple’s vice president for diversity and inclusion had transgressed the catechism of political Published:11/18/2017 6:49:01 PM
[TWX] Drinking A Bit Of T Published:11/18/2017 6:18:08 PM
[Entertainment] Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip Release New Royal Portrait in Honor of 70th Wedding Anniversary Queen Elizabeth, Prince Philip, 70th Wedding AnniversaryTheir platinum wedding anniversary is fast approaching! In honor of the upcoming 70th wedding anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip Buckingham Palace released new royal...
Published:11/18/2017 6:18:08 PM
[97% consensus] A Reply to Cook and Oreskes on Climate Science Consensus By Warren Pearce, , Reiner Grundmann, Mike Hulme, Sujatha Raman, Eleanor Hadley Kershaw and Judith Tsouvalis Published in: Environmental Communication In their replies to our paper (Pearce et al., 2017), both Cook (2017) and Oreskes (2017) agree with our central point: that deliberating and mobilizing policy responses to climate change requires thinking beyond public belief in a scientific consensus.… Published:11/18/2017 6:18:08 PM
[Apple] Apple Diversity Chief Forced Out After Saying White Men Can Also Be 'Diverse'

Silicon Valley's disdain for its mostly white, mostly male tech workforce has reached absurd new heights.

The New York Post is reporting that, after just six months on the job, Apple Diversity Chief Denise Young Smith, who was named vice president of diversity and inclusion in May, has resigned her post after making a “controversial” comment last month during a summit in Bogota, Colombia.

What was Young’s crime? She insinuated that “diversity” can still exist among a group of white men because of their different life experiences.

“There can be 12 white, blue-eyed, blond men in a room and they’re going to be diverse too because they’re going to bring a different life experience and life perspective to the conversation,” the inaugural diversity chief said.

“Diversity is the human experience,” she said, according to Quartz. “I get a little bit frustrated when diversity or the term diversity is tagged to the people of color, or the women, or the LGBT."

That’s right: Young, who is – for the record – a black woman, has been forced out of Apple because her views on diversity were too inclusive.

As the Post pointed out, Young’s comments appeared to defend Apple’s overwhelmingly white and male leadership at a time when the company’s makeup is markedly uneven. This begs the question: What, exactly, was she defending them from?

Young, a 20-year Apple veteran who previously served as the company’s head of worldwide human resources (a senior level position), was later forced to apologize for her remarks, telling Apple staff that her comments “were not representative of how I think about diversity or how Apple sees it."

“For that, I’m sorry,” she said in an email. “More importantly, I want to assure you Apple’s view and our dedication to diversity has not changed."

“We deeply believe that diversity drives innovation,” an Apple spokesman told TechCrunch in a statement. “We’re thrilled to welcome an accomplished leader like Christie Smith to help us continue the progress we’ve made toward a more diverse workplace."

In 2017, only 3 percent of Apple’s leaders were black, and women held just 23 percent of tech jobs, according to Fortune. Female leadership stood at 29 percent, Apple said.

“Meaningful change takes time,” the company said in its diversity report. “We’re proud of our accomplishments, but we have much more work to do."

Smith will leave the company at the end of the year. Taking over as VP of inclusion and diversity will be Christie Smith, who spent 17 years as a principal at Deloitte.

She is also a white woman.
 

Published:11/18/2017 6:18:07 PM
[The Blog] Second Freddie Gray officer cleared at police trial boards

Yet another swing and a miss

The post Second Freddie Gray officer cleared at police trial boards appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 6:18:07 PM
[World] Tyrese Gibson Calls Joint Custody Ruling a "Win" for Daughter Shayla Tyrese Gibson, Daughter, ShaylaTyrese Gibson is speaking out after a judge awarded him joint custody of his only child--10-year-old daughter Shayla. The child's mother and ex-wife Norma had in September obtained a...
Published:11/18/2017 6:18:07 PM
[Markets] How a Star Wars video game faced charges that it was promoting gambling EA would not comment on whether “pay to win” aspects of its latest “Star Wars” game have been removed. Published:11/18/2017 5:50:58 PM
[Entertainment] Miss World 2017 Winner Is Miss India Manushi Chhillar Miss World, 2017, Miss India Manushi ChhilarAnd the winner of the 2017 Miss World pageant is...Miss India Manushi Chhillar. Stephanie Hill, Miss England, was the first runner up and Miss Mexico Alma Andrea Meza Carmona was second...
Published:11/18/2017 5:50:57 PM
[topics:organisations/wiltshire-police] Police tsar admits Sir Edward Heath inquiry ‘flaws’ Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Politics] NASTY allegations spilling out after Ohio lawmaker admits gay trysts Earlier we posted on the resignation of Wes Goodman, an Ohio state lawmaker who had been all about straight marriage, and was then discovered to be nailing guys in his office. Well, . . . Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Politics] NASTY allegations spilling out after Ohio lawmaker admits gay trysts Earlier we posted on the resignation of Wes Goodman, an Ohio state lawmaker who had been all about straight marriage, and was then discovered to be nailing guys in his office. Well, . . . Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Middle Column] GERMANY’S GREEN ENERGY MELTDOWN
Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Bullion] Golden Catalysts

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

The physical fundamentals are stronger than ever for gold.

Russia and China continue to be huge buyers. China bans export of its 450 tons per year of physical production.

Gold refiners are working around the clock and cannot meet demand.

Gold refiners are also having difficulty finding gold to refine as mining output, official bullion sales and scrap inflows all remain weak.

Private bullion continues to migrate from bank vaults at UBS and Credit Suisse into nonbank vaults at Brinks and Loomis, thus reducing the floating supply available for bank unallocated gold sales.

In other words, the physical supply situation has been tight as a drum.

The problem, of course, is unlimited selling in “paper” gold markets such as the Comex gold futures and similar instruments.

One of the flash crashes this year was precipitated by the instantaneous sale of gold futures contracts equal in underlying amount to 60 tons of physical gold. The largest bullion banks in the world could not source 60 tons of physical gold if they had months to do it.

There’s just not that much gold available. But in the paper gold market, there’s no limit on size, so anything goes.

There’s no sense complaining about this situation. It is what it is, and it won’t be broken up anytime soon. The main source of comfort is knowing that fundamentals always win in the long run even if there are temporary reversals. What you need to do is be patient, stay the course and buy strategically when the drawdowns emerge.

Where do we go from here?

There are many compelling reasons why gold should outperform over the coming months.

Deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Russia will only accelerate Russia’s efforts to diversify its reserves away from dollar assets (which can be frozen by the U.S. on a moment’s notice) to gold assets, which are immune to asset freezes and seizures.

The countdown to war with North Korea is underway, as I’ve explained repeatedly in these pages. A U.S. attack on the North Korean nuclear and missile weapons programs is likely by mid-2018.

Finally, we have to deal with our friends at the Fed. Good jobs numbers have given life to the view that the Fed will raise interest rates next month. The standard answer is that rate hikes make the dollar stronger and are a head wind for the dollar price of gold.

But I remain skeptical about a December hike. As I explained above, the market is looking in the wrong places for clues to Fed policy. Jobs reports are irrelevant; that was “mission accomplished” for the Fed years ago.

The key data are disinflation numbers. That’s what has the Fed concerned, and that’s why the Fed might pause again in December as it did last September.

We’ll have a better idea when PCE core inflation comes out Nov. 30.

Of course, the Fed’s main inflation metric has been moving in the wrong direction since January. The readings on the core PCE deflator year over year (the Fed’s preferred metric) were:

January 1.9%

February 1.9%

March 1.6%

April 1.6%

May 1.5%

June 1.5%

July 2017: 1.4%

August 2017: 1.3%

September 2017: 1.3%

Again, the October data will not be available until Nov. 30.

The Fed’s target rate for this metric is 2%. It will take a sustained increase over several months for the Fed to conclude that inflation is back on track to meet the Fed’s goal.

There’s obviously no chance of this happening before the Fed’s December meeting.

A weak dollar is the Fed’s only chance for more inflation. The way to get a weak dollar is to delay rate hikes indefinitely, and that’s what I believe the Fed will do.

And a weak dollar means a higher dollar price for gold.

Current levels look like the last stop before $1,300 per ounce. After that, a price surge is likely as buyers jump on the bandwagon, and then it’s up, up and away.

Why do I say that?

There’s an old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” This chart is a good example of why that’s true:

Gold Breakout Chart

Gold analyst Eddie Van Der Walt produced this 10-year chart for the dollar price of gold showing that gold prices have been converging into a narrow tunnel between two price trends - one trending higher and one lower - for the past six years.

This pattern has been especially pronounced since 2015. You can see gold has traded up and down in a range between $1,050 and $1,380 per ounce. The upper trend line and the lower trend line converge into a funnel.

Since gold will not remain in that funnel much longer (because it converges to a fixed price) gold will likely “break out” to the upside or downside, typically with a huge move that disrupts the pattern.

At the extreme, this could imply a gold price on its way to $1,800 or $800 per ounce. Which will it be?

The evidence overwhelmingly supports the thesis that gold will break out to the upside. Central banks are determined to get more inflation and will flip to easing policies if that’s what it takes.

Geopolitical risks are piling up from North Korea, to Saudi Arabia, to the South China Sea and beyond.

The failure of the Trump agenda has put the stock market on edge and a substantial market correction may be in the cards. Acute shortages of physical gold have also set the stage for a delivery failure or a short squeeze.

Any one of these developments is enough to send gold soaring in response to a panic or as part of a flight to quality. The only force that could take gold lower is deflation, and that is the one thing central banks will never allow. The above chart is one of the most powerful bullish indicators I’ve ever seen.

Get ready for an explosion to the ups ide in the dollar price of gold. Make sure you have your physical gold and gold mining shares before the breakout begins.

Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Uncategorized] Report: A 2018 Democrat Wave Is Building In The House How important is it for Republicans to fulfill campaign promises before 2018 midterms? Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Science] The Obama family's vacation home in Martha's Vineyard is up for sale The estate is listed as a "presidential paradise." Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Politics] Trump Trolls Hillary Clinton: ‘Try Again in Three Years’

You’ve hear of Rick rolling someone before, right? Well now I introduce you to Trump trolling! President Donald Trump trolled Hillary Clinton on Saturday when he responded to her pathetic, desperate attempts to stay relevant. He called her the “worst (and biggest) loser of all time,” and invited her to try again in three years. ...

The post Trump Trolls Hillary Clinton: ‘Try Again in Three Years’ appeared first on Godfather Politics.

Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[Politics] Trump Trolls Hillary Clinton: ‘Try Again in Three Years’

You’ve hear of Rick rolling someone before, right? Well now I introduce you to Trump trolling! President Donald Trump trolled Hillary Clinton on Saturday when he responded to her pathetic, desperate attempts to stay relevant. He called her the “worst (and biggest) loser of all time,” and invited her to try again in three years. ...

The post Trump Trolls Hillary Clinton: ‘Try Again in Three Years’ appeared first on Godfather Politics.

Published:11/18/2017 5:50:56 PM
[worldNews] Zimbabwe's ruling party set to sack Mugabe, sources say HARARE (Reuters) - The leaders of Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party will meet on Sunday to approve the dismissal of President Robert Mugabe, the only leader the southern African nation has known since independence 37 years ago, two party sources have said.
Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[Markets] When do markets close for Thanksgiving? Investors have many things to be thankful for this year: global equities had risen in every single month this year, while every major economy expanded. That’s something to think about when U.S. markets ... Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[Al Franken] Did Tweeden’s Reticence Cost Coleman His Senate Seat? (John Hinderaker) Last Thursday evening, I served as master of ceremonies for a dinner at which several politicians and former politicians spoke. I introduced Norm Coleman as a man who, many believe, was twice elected to the United States Senate. Today the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports Coleman’s thoughts on Leeann Tweeden’s revelations about her encounters with Al Franken in 2006: Former U.S. Sen. and St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman said he Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[The Declaration] Sunday Is International Men's Day — And the Internet Is Spiraling Out of Control "I vote cancelling..." Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[US Politics] Oh no: Palestinians threaten to suspend communication with Trump administration

Palestinians "threaten" to suspend all communication with the Trump administration if the U.S. closes the PLO's office in D.C.

The post Oh no: Palestinians threaten to suspend communication with Trump administration appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[Opinion] Democrats Claim They Were Too Young To Know That Clinton Rape Was Wrong

By Dave King -

Bill Clinton shrugging

The lying Democrats are trying to convince America that the sexual crimes of Bill Clinton, before and during his time in the Oval Office, were not properly understood at the time because Democrat contributors and supporters and the members of the press were too young to know the damage that could be done to a woman who was raped – so they allowed Bill Clinton to remain in office. Remember when James Carville and Paul Begala added to the humiliation of Monica Lewinski and Paula Jones by calling them trailer trash and stating that these women were picked up when ...

Democrats Claim They Were Too Young To Know That Clinton Rape Was Wrong is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[] Saturday Evening Movie Thread 11-18-2017 [Hosted By: TheJamesMadison] Real Vs. The Unreal I don't think it'll be a terribly controversial thing to say here that practical effects work better, generally, than computer generated effects. I think the models used in 60s and 70s sci-fi are more convincing than... Published:11/18/2017 5:18:37 PM
[PAID] Outcome Health Offers Voluntary Buyouts to Employees Outcome Health, a Chicago startup, offered voluntary buyouts to employees, and Harvard Health Publishing and the American Medical Association put their partnerships with the company on pause. Published:11/18/2017 4:48:08 PM
[General] More victim-blaming: Leeann Tweeden didn’t wear glasses when touring with Al Franken, see?

Leeann Tweeden should have worn those bookish glasses in 2006 if she didn't want Al Franken sticking his tongue down her throat.

The post More victim-blaming: Leeann Tweeden didn’t wear glasses when touring with Al Franken, see? appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 4:48:08 PM
[Politics] SC basketball team DECLINES Trump invite to White House… Another championship sports team has declined a Trump invite to the White House – it’s the South Carolina Women’s Basketball team, which was the 2017 NCAA champion team. Watch below: South Carolina . . . Published:11/18/2017 4:48:08 PM
[Politics] SC basketball team DECLINES Trump invite to White House… Another championship sports team has declined a Trump invite to the White House – it’s the South Carolina Women’s Basketball team, which was the 2017 NCAA champion team. Watch below: South Carolina . . . Published:11/18/2017 4:48:08 PM
[topics:places/young-vic] Theatre director accused of inappropriate behaviour Published:11/18/2017 4:48:08 PM
[Bear Market] The 'Junkie' Market Is Back

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The past few days have seen a reversal from substantial net New lows to substantial net New highs – a condition that has preceded poor performance in the past.

We’ve posted several pieces in the past regarding what we’ve termed “Junkie Markets” – junctures characterized by a substantial number of both New 52-Week Highs and New 52-Week Lows.

Such conditions represent a key component of various and notorious market warning signals, such as the Hindenburg Omen and others. As the ominous sounding names would imply, the historical stock market performance following such signals has been poor. We have found the same to be true with respect to our “Junkie Markets”. Today’s Chart Of The Day deals with a new variation of the Junkie Market.

Specifically, we have seen an unusual development over the past 2 days. On Wednesday, the number of net New Lows on the NYSE, i.e., New Lows minus New Highs, exceeded 2% of all exchange issues, a fairly large amount. The very next day, yesterday, conditions completely reversed as we saw net New NYSE Highs, i.e. New Highs minus New Lows, actually account for more than 2% of all issues. If you think that sounds strange, you’re correct. It is just the 15th such occurrence since the start of our data in 1970.

image

Here are the dates of these reversals:

3/25/1970
4/14/1972
7/11/1974
10/20/1977
1/2/2001
4/22/2004
5/11/2004
4/18/2006
6/28/2007
7/19/2007
9/19/2008
5/30/2013
10/10/2013
1/15/2015
11/16/2017

What would cause such a phenomenon? Well, the only thing we can offer is that a Junkie Market, i.e., one with lots of New Highs and Lows, is really the only type of market in which such a reversal is even possible. Thus, it should not be surprising that the S&P 500’s aggregate performance going forward following these precedents has been less than stellar (incidentally, aggregate performance is similar following the 19 occasions of the opposite reversals, i.e., >2% Net New Highs to >2% Net New Lows).

image

With median returns negative from 1 week to 6 months, this appears to be another version of the Junkie Market that, for whatever reason, has not been kind to stocks going forward. Obviously, the presence of signals near cyclical peaks in the early 1970’s as well as 2001 and 2007-2008 do not help the aggregate returns (average returns are even worse than median).

Now, not all signals have occurred at the beginning of cyclical bear markets. However, as the chart shows, one interesting observation is that all of the occurrences have occurred during secular bear markets (that is, of course, if one accepts that we are still within the confines of the post-2000 secular bear market, as is our view – that is a topic for another time, though). The point is that, if true, the ramifications may reinforce the negative tendencies associated with Junkie Markets.

The bottom line for now is that, while it is certainly possible that stocks can continue higher in the interim, this condition of elevated New Highs and New Lows is a potential unhealthy headwind in the longer-term.

*  *  *

If you’re interested in the “all-access” version of our charts and research, please check out The Lyons Share. Find out what we’re investing in, when we’re getting in – and when we’re getting out. Considering that we may well be entering an investment environment tailor made for our active, risk-managed approach, there has never been a better time to reap the benefits of this service. Thanks for reading!

Published:11/18/2017 4:48:07 PM
[Quick Takes] Chicago: Educator Allegedly Embezzled Millions In Low-income Lunch Program Funds . . . to pay for her own lavish lifestyle Published:11/18/2017 4:48:07 PM
[The Blog] Trump saves the elephants

Conservation.

The post Trump saves the elephants appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 4:48:07 PM
[Uncategorized] Ingrate of the Year

Colin Kaepernick is GQ Magazine’s Citizen of the year in spite of his ungrateful anti-American demonstrations. Political Cartoon by A.F. Branco ©2017. See more Conservative Daily News cartoons here A.F.Branco 2018 Calendar <—- Order Here! Donations/Tips accepted and appreciated –  $1.00 – $5.00 – $10 – $100 –  it all helps to fund this website and keep the cartoons coming. ...

The post Ingrate of the Year appeared first on Godfather Politics.

Published:11/18/2017 4:48:07 PM
[Uncategorized] Ingrate of the Year

Colin Kaepernick is GQ Magazine’s Citizen of the year in spite of his ungrateful anti-American demonstrations. Political Cartoon by A.F. Branco ©2017. See more Conservative Daily News cartoons here A.F.Branco 2018 Calendar <—- Order Here! Donations/Tips accepted and appreciated –  $1.00 – $5.00 – $10 – $100 –  it all helps to fund this website and keep the cartoons coming. ...

The post Ingrate of the Year appeared first on Godfather Politics.

Published:11/18/2017 4:48:07 PM
[World] Argentine submarine with 44 people on board vanishes The vessel was returning to its base south of Buenos Aires after a routine mission when communications went silent. Strong winds and high waves are hindering search-and-rescue efforts. Published:11/18/2017 4:18:14 PM
[topics:people/donald-trump] US nuclear commander would resist 'illegal' order for strike  Published:11/18/2017 4:18:09 PM
[Andrew Cuomo] NYC Subway Managers Receive $300,000 Salaries While MTA Cuts Mechanics

During a  long-ranging investigation, The New York Times interviewed more than 300 people and poured over thousands of documents to sketch out the history of neglect, abuse and mismanagement that fostered the New York City subway's current state of crisis in what's probably the most comprehensive explanation of the woes plaguing the MTA.

Century-old tunnels and track routes are crubling, but the Times found that the MTA’s budget for subway aintenance has barely grown, in inflation adjusted terms, since 1992.

Signal problems and equipment failures are occurring twice as frequently as they did a decade ago – a sign of just how rapidly the transit system is deteriorating.

What’s worse, is that hundreds of mechanic positions have been cut even as the century-old system groaned under the damage caused by Superstorm Sandy. Meanwhile, compensation for managers has ballooned to nearly $300,000 a year.

Daily ridership has doubled in the past decade to 5.7 million people. Yet, New York City is the only city in the world with fewer miles of track than it had during World War II.

Given the unconscionable state of neglect paid to its budget, it should come as no surprise that New York City’s subway system has the worst performance of any major urban transportation system in the world. Only 65% of weekday trains make it to their destination on time.

The Times claims that the deplorable state of the city’s transit system is the result of negligence by both Republican and Democratic politicians, including former Gov. George Pataki, former mayor Rudolph Giuliani, as well as Mayor Bill De Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Over the past two decades, politicians have diverted a whopping $1.5 billion in tax revenue from the MTA to other political priorities. Politicians are also largely responsible for pressing the agency to spend money on opulent station makeovers, like the new Fulton Street station, that do little to improve service. Politicians also locked the MTA into an unfavorable agreement with creditors that secured a needed short-term cash infusion but left it saddled with $5 billion in interest payments.

Perhaps most egregiously, Gov. Cuomo recently forced the MTA to send $5 million to three upstate ski resorts that were struggling with a warm winter.

The MTA has also suffered from high turnover in its senior ranks, as dozens of high-level officials have taken advantage of a lucrative revolving door whereby they leave jobs at the MTA for high-up jobs at contractors that do business with the MTA.

Seemingly at every turn, politicians have failed to act on a series of chances to turn things around. They ignored decades of warnings from state and city comptrollers about MTA funding. They failed to pass a congestion pricing plan in 2008. Thy chose not to give mass transit much of the proceeds from bank settlements after the financial crisis. And they brushed off findings from official commission reports pointing out the system’s defects.

All of this has amounted to a shocking development: The number of subway riders declined slightly last year, even as the population of NYC has continued to expand rapidly.

Problems worsened under Cuomo as the governor tried to micromanage decision making at the agency, a move that only worsened its problems. For example, a few months ago, the MTA cut $500 million from the signal-repair budget to fund other projects that are more important to Cuomo. For context, signal malfunctions are the biggest contributing factor in train delays.

But perhaps the most fundamental flaw in how the MTA is managed is the fact that many of its most high-level decisions are made by a committee of bureaucrats and politicians, the Times reported.

“A camel is a horse designed by committee, and the MTA is a train service run by committee,” a Cuomo spokeswoman said.
 

Published:11/18/2017 4:18:09 PM
[Climate News] Claim: plant respiration of CO2 into atmosphere underestimated by 30% From the UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA and the “blame the plants not the humans for climate model failures” department. Carbon emissions by plant respiration will have large impact on climate Study finds that emission rates are 30 percent higher than previously predicted New findings by researchers from the University of Minnesota College of Food, Agricultural and Natural… Published:11/18/2017 4:18:09 PM
[Markets] U.S. nuclear general says he’d refuse any ‘illegal’ strike order from Trump Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, told an audience at a security forum in Nova Scotia that he would resist any nuclear launch request made by President Donald Trump that was deemed to be unlawful, according to CBS News.
Published:11/18/2017 4:18:09 PM
[The Declaration] Designer of Melania Trump's Inaugural Ball Gown Set to Introduce 12 New Dresses for the Public She is very excited, of course. Published:11/18/2017 4:18:09 PM
[World] Thousands march in Zimbabwe to demand Mugabe step down, but when and if remain in question It was the first time in decades Zimbabweans had been able to protest President Robert Mugabe without fear of arrest, coming days after the 93-year-old leader was detained by the military. Published:11/18/2017 3:47:26 PM
[Uncategorized] Hillary Bashes Trump, Moore Over Sexual Misconduct Allegations, Demands “Accountability” "we have a man who is accused of sexual assault sitting in the Oval Office" Published:11/18/2017 3:47:22 PM
[Media] Anthony Weiner becomes a sympathetic victim in Joy Reid’s piece on Clarence Thomas; Dana Loesch schools

Joy Reid wanted to relitigate the Clarence Thomas hearings but ended up making Anthony Weiner a sympathetic victim.

The post Anthony Weiner becomes a sympathetic victim in Joy Reid’s piece on Clarence Thomas; Dana Loesch schools appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 3:47:22 PM
[Science] Frederica Wilson rehashes feud with John Kelly, says he 'owes the nation an apology' "He lied to the American public." Published:11/18/2017 3:47:22 PM
[2017 News] Dem candidate apologizes after boasting of ‘hayloft’ romp, sex with 50 women Dem candidate apologizes after boasting of ‘hayloft’ romp, sex with 50 women. Perhaps he should run as Stud for Governor. Published:11/18/2017 3:47:21 PM
[Politics] Maria Bartiromo says there are NO ALLEGATIONS of sexual harassment against Trump… In a very weird segment on Fox News Business, Maria Bartiromo said that there are NO allegations of sexual harassment against Trump. Watch below: .@MariaBartiromo falsely claims there are no allegations of . . . Published:11/18/2017 3:17:24 PM
[Science] Dozens of Alabama pastors: 'No person of faith can, in good conscience, support' Roy Moore "We clergy write and sign this letter not as representatives of our own congregations but as individual faith leaders compelled by conscienc... Published:11/18/2017 3:17:24 PM
[Entertainment] Teen Mom 2's Briana DeJesus and Javi Marroquin Celebrate His Son's Birthday Briana DeJesus, Javi Marroquin, KidsTeen Mom 2 star Briana DeJesus and Javi Marroquin had a joint family fun day this week to celebrate his son Lincoln's fourth birthday. The pair's relationship status is hazy; In...
Published:11/18/2017 3:17:23 PM
[The Response] Air Force General Says He Would Refuse 'Illegal' Nuclear Weapons Order From Trump "When you have this responsibility, how do you not think about it?" Published:11/18/2017 3:17:23 PM
[topics:people/meghan-markle] King Henry VIII ordered for Meghan Markle's ancestor to be beheaded  Published:11/18/2017 3:17:23 PM
[The Blog] Lena Dunham: Believe rape victims, except the one who accused my friend

"Things women do lie about: what they ate for lunch. Things women don't lie about: rape."

The post Lena Dunham: Believe rape victims, except the one who accused my friend appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 3:17:23 PM
[US Politics] So, was Donald Trump’s ‘Al Frankenstein’ jab an anti-Semitic dog whistle?

Frankly, we just thought Al Frankenstein was a great jab, but many think it was deliberately anti-Semitic.

The post So, was Donald Trump’s ‘Al Frankenstein’ jab an anti-Semitic dog whistle? appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 3:17:23 PM
[Alpha] Hunting Angels: What The World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Will Short Next

It's not easy being "the world's most bearish hedge fund", a description we first conceived nearly three years ago, and one look at Horseman Capital's returns over the past three years confirms it: after generating market-beating returns for much of its existence, things went bad in 2015, and much worse in 2016...

... when the Fund had a record net short equity position of over -100%, just as the market ripped higher after the Trump election.

That said, 2017 has been much better for Horseman and its CIO Russell Clark, who correctly timed the year's two big short trades so far: the mall REIT and the shale shorts.

Unfortunately, his other positions stood in the way, and as of the end of October (a good month with 2.04% in P&L), the fund is just 0.25% up on the year. Worse, after a period of calm, steady, upward grinding monthly performance for much of the previous several years, Horseman's sharpe ratio has cratered, as the monthly return variance surged, with a -6% month following two +7% months as a result of gross leverage that has never been higher, even if the net equity position - while still largely short - is far more manageable than it was in 2016.

Still, having been well ahead of the pack on the two big shorts of 2017, most money managers are always curious what if anything Clark - and Horseman - are shorting next. Well, they are in luck, because in his latest letter, he unveils the answer: according to Clark, the next major source of alpha will be shorting fallen angel bonds.

In his November letter to clients, Clark explains why he is hunting for soon to be "fallen angels", and where he got the idea from. And after more fund managers read the following excerpt, we have a feeling that the next big leg lower in not only junk, but also crossover credit, is imminent:

Mifid II will come into force soon, and a lot of research that used to be free, will need to be paid for. This has been a reason to ask ourselves some serious questions, namely what research do I read, and what has made me the most money. Strangely the research that has been most profitable for me, will remain free even post Mifid II as it is publicly available. The International Monetary Fund produces Global Financial Stability Reports. The stand out report for me was the April 2008 report that highlighted Eastern European banks vulnerability to wholesale funding. I shorted many of the banks named in the report. Most fell 70% to 90% subsequently.

 

What does the most recent issue of the Global Financial Stability Report have to say? It notes that BBB bonds now make up nearly 50% of the index of investment grade bonds, an all time high. BBB bonds are only one notch above high yield, and are at the greatest risk of becoming fallen angels, that is bonds that were investment grade when issued, but subsequently get downgraded to below investment grade, or what is known these days as high yield. It then points out that investors have never been more at risk of capital loss if yields were to rise. In addition, it notes volatility targeting investors will mechanically increase leverage as volatility drops, with variable annuities investors having little flexibility to deviate from target volatility. Another interesting point was that mutual fund share of the high yield market in the US have risen from 17% in 2008 to 30% today, and notes that investors outflows have become much more sensitive to losses than they used to be.

 

So my favourite research (love the price!) is telling me that US investment grade debt is very low quality, and could produce some large fallen angels. It then goes on to tell me that mutual funds are much larger in the high yield market than they used to be. It also tells me low rates means the capital losses are much higher than they used to be. And that investors in high yield mutual funds are much flightier than they used to be! Essentially the IMF are telling me that if you get a large enough fallen angel, the high yield market will freak out, and volatility will spike causing volatility targeting investors to dump leveraged positions. Sounds good to me - but with growth so good and the market so strong, how on earth would we get a fallen angel?

 

To find a potential fallen angel, I looked through the holdings of investment grade bond ETFs to find large BBB bond issuers. The biggest of the BBB issuers happened to be the large telecommunication companies. The sector has over USD300bn of BBB rated debt compared to a high-yield market of USD 1tn. I am not a debt specialist, but I have noticed that falling share prices tend to be good lead indicators on debt downgrades, and the US telecommunication sector has not been participating in the market rally this year. The story looks good to me, and it comes via my favourite research source. US debt markets look in trouble to me, whether that has any effect on broader equity markets remains to be seen.

Aside from this rather original idea, some other notable changes in Horseman's industry exposure are noted: while both the retail and E&P shorts are still there, they have been notably tamed, and of note are two other major shorts (both in the US): one in real estate (we assume this is a play on the adverse impact of rising rates on real estate valuations), and the healthcare sector, a short whose thesis is quite interesting and we will reveal tomorrow.

For those wondering, the top 10 positions by % of NAV are the following:

Needless to say, we wish Horseman much success with a prompt realization of his BBB-short, especially since it appears that his LPs are starting to get cold feet, and the fund's AUM has shrunk by half from $2.8 BN  one year ago...

... to less than half, or $1.2BN currently.

Published:11/18/2017 3:17:22 PM
[World] Zimbabweans say Mugabe must quit now, but more talks planned HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — Giddy with joy and finally free to speak out, vast throngs of demonstrators turned Zimbabwe's capital into a carnival ground on Saturday in a peaceful outpouring of disdain for President Robert Mugabe and calls for him to quit immediately. Still clinging to his now-powerless post, the longtime leader was scheduled on Sunday to discuss his expected exit with the military command that put him under house arrest. Published:11/18/2017 2:47:13 PM
[5a01c328-093d-4bf3-b9b1-9ad5e89e32e4] Want sexual misconduct by men to stop -- Start by cracking down on boys’ easy access to internet porn Why are so many men doing so many bad things to girls and women – and sometimes to boys and men? Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[Business] Is America In Terminal Decline?

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

John Rubino recently posted a graph from Bob Prechter’s Elliot Wave that points to some ominous signs. It depicts the S&P 500, combined with consumer confidence and savings rate. As the accompanying video at Elliott Wave, What “Too Confident to Save” Means for Stocks, shows, when the gap between high confidence and low savings is at its widest, a market crash -often- follows.

In 2000, the subsequent crash was 39%, in 2007 it was 54%. We are now again witnessing just such a gap, with the S&P 500 at record levels. Here’s the graph, with John’s comments:

Consumers Are Both Confident And Broke

Elliott Wave International recently put together a chart that illustrates a recurring theme of financial bubbles: When good times have gone on for a sufficiently long time, people forget that it can be any other way and start behaving as if they’re bulletproof. They stop saving, for instance, because they’ll always have their job and their stocks will always go up. Then comes the inevitable bust. On the following chart, this delusion and its aftermath are represented by the gap between consumer confidence (our sense of how good the next year is likely to be) and the saving rate (the portion of each paycheck we keep for a rainy day). The bigger the gap the less realistic we are and the more likely to pay dearly for our hubris.

John is mostly right. But not entirely. Not that I don’t think he knows, he simply forgets to mention it. What I mean is his suggestion that people stop saving because they’re confident, bullish. To understand where and why he slightly misses, let’s turn to Lance Roberts. Before we get to the savings, Lance explains why the difference between the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is important to note.

Summarized, producer prices are rising, but consumer prices are not.

You Have Been Warned

There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which ROSE 0.4% for the month following a similar rise of 0.4% last month. This surge in prices was NOT surprising given the recent devastation from 3-hurricanes and massive wildfires in California which led to a temporary surge in demand for products and services.

 

Then on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released which showed only a small 0.1% increase falling sharply from the 0.5% increase last month.

 

Such differences have real life consequences. In Lance’s words:

This deflationary pressure further showed up on Thursday with a -0.3% decline in Export prices. (Exports make up about 40% of corporate profits) For all of you that continue to insist this is an “earnings-driven market,” you should pay very close attention to those three data points above. When companies have higher input costs in their production they have two choices: 1) “pass along” those price increase to their customers; or 2) absorb those costs internally.

 

If a company opts to “pass along” those costs then we should have seen CPI rise more strongly. Since that didn’t happen, it suggests companies are unable to “pass along” those costs which means a reduction in earnings. The other BIG report released on Wednesday tells you WHY companies have been unable to “pass along” those increased costs.

 

The “retail sales” report came in at just a 0.1% increase for the month. After a large jump in retail sales last month, as was expected following the hurricanes, there should have been some subsequent follow through last month. There simply wasn’t. More importantly, despite annual hopes by the National Retail Federation of surging holiday spending which is consistently over-estimated, the recent surge in consumer debt without a subsequent increase in consumer spending shows the financial distress faced by a vast majority of consumers.

That already hints at what I said above about savings. But it’s Lance’s next graph, versions of which he uses regularly, that makes it even more obvious. (NOTE: I think he means to say 2009, not 2000 below)

The first chart below shows a record gap between the standard cost of living and the debt required to finance that cost of living. Prior to 2000(?!), debt was able to support a rising standard of living, which is no longer the case currently.

The cut-off point is 2009, unless I miss something in Lance’s comment. Before that, borrowing could create the illusion of a rising standard of living. Those days are gone.

And it’s very hard to see, when you take a good look, what could make them come back.

Not only are savings not down because people are too confident to save, they are down because people simply don’t have anything left to save. The American consumer is sliding ever deeper into debt. And as for the Holiday Season, we can confidently -there’s that word again- predict that spending will be disappointing, and that much of what is still spent will add to increasing Consumer Credit Per Capita, as well as the Gap Between Real Disposable Income (DPI) And Cost Of Living.

The last graph, which shows Control Purchases, i.e. what people buy most, a large part of which will be basic needs, makes this even more clear.

With a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes, debt is only able to cover about 2/3rds of the difference with a net shortfall of $6,605. This explains the reason why “control purchases” by individuals (those items individuals buy most often) is running at levels more normally consistent with recessions rather than economic expansions.

If companies are unable to pass along rising production costs to consumers, export prices are falling and consumer demand remains weak, be warned of continued weakness in earnings reports in the months ahead. As I stated earlier this year, the recovery in earnings this year was solely a function of the recovering energy sector due to higher oil prices. With that tailwind now firmly behind us, the risk to earnings in the year ahead is dangerous to a market basing its current “overvaluation” on the “strong earnings” story.

“Prior to 2009, debt was able to support a rising standard of living..” Less than a decade later, it can’t even maintain the status quo. That’s what you call a breaking point.

To put that in numbers, there’s a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes. In other words, no matter how much people are borrowing, their standard of living is in decline.

Something else we can glean from the graphs is that after the Great Recession (or GFC) of 2008-9, the economy never recovered. The S&P may have, and the banks are back to profitable ways and big bonuses, but that has nothing to do with real Americans in their own real economy. 2009 was a turning point and the crisis never looked back.

Are the American people actually paying for the so-called recovery? One might be inclined to say so. There is no recovery, there’s whatever the opposite of that is, terminal decline?!. It’s just, where does that consumer confidence level come from? Is that the media? Is The Conference Board pulling our leg? Is it that people think things cannot possibly get worse?

What is by now crystal clear is that Americans don’t choose to not save, they have nothing left to save. And that will have its own nasty consequences down the road. Let’s raise some rates, shall we? And see what happens?!

One consolation: Europe, Japan, China are in the same debt-driven decline that Americans are. We’re all going down together. Or rather, the question is who’s going to go first. That is the only hard call left. America’s a prime candidate.

Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[World] Al Franken's astonishing pardon -- from a feminist, no less

Kate Harding, a feminist writer who's penned the book "Nasty Women: Feminism, Resistance and Revolution in Trump's America," has said that Sen. Al Franken should do penance for his sexual assault — you know, the one captured in part on camera — but not resign from political office.

Harding's logic?

...
Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[8e9a5233-4128-4b21-9381-9f3519917650] David Cassidy suffering from organ failure, surrounded by family "Partridge Family" star David Cassidy is suffering from multiple organ failure at a Florida hospital, his rep confirmed to several media outlets Saturday. Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[structure:news/uk-news] Gaia Pope: Police are 'confident' they have found body of missing teenager Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[Science] Relationship deteriorating between US, Palestinians The State Department said the Palestine Liberation Organization's office in D.C. will close after Palestinians called for Israelis to be pro... Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[Entertainment] David Cassidy Hospitalized: He Is "Conscious and Surrounded by Family" David CassidyPartridge Family alum David Cassidy was recently hospitalized and his family has rushed to his side. The 67-year-old actor, singer and former 70s teen idol is "currently conscious and...
Published:11/18/2017 2:47:12 PM
[Quick Takes] Fire Dept Refuses To Stop Flying Confederate Flag, City Threatens To Pull Funding "We're not going to move on the issue of taking down the flag" Published:11/18/2017 2:47:11 PM
[Markets] The Wall Street Journal: Jared Kushner’s lawyer is firing back against senators over documents request An attorney for Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Friday said certain documents requested by a Senate committee investigating the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia weren’t relevant to its initial request, disputing the panel’s suggestion that his client hadn’t wholly fulfilled its demand for the material.
Published:11/18/2017 2:47:11 PM
[Politics] Maria Bartiromo says there are NO ALLEGATIONS of sexual harassment against Trump… In a very weird segment on Fox News Business, Maria Bartiromo said that there are NO allegations of sexual harassment against Trump. Watch below: .@MariaBartiromo falsely claims there are no allegations of . . . Published:11/18/2017 2:47:11 PM
[Uncategorized] Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations Two very different representations of consistency between models and observations are popularly circulated. On the one hand, John Christy and Roy Spencer have frequently shown a graphic which purports to show a marked discrepancy between models and observations in tropical mid-troposphere, while, on the other hand, Zeke Hausfather, among others, have shown graphics which purport […] Published:11/18/2017 2:47:11 PM
[In The News] This week’s top news reads – 11/18/17

By Rich Mitchell -

House vote on tax reform

Here are some of the most popular news articles from the previous week, just in case you missed some of them: Ingrate of the Year – A.F. Branco Cartoon What’s in the House Tax Reform Bill – CDN breakdown of the tax reform bill that passed the house Thursday SpaceX releases promo showing off its McGregor, TX facility – and it rocks! – An awesome video from the people at SpaceX showing off their Texas testing facility Hillary: Investigating me is abuse of power – like dictatorship – she has no idea how bad this sounds… Follow the Money: Fusion GPS and the ...

This week’s top news reads – 11/18/17 is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 2:47:11 PM
[Markets] Stitch Fix goes public in the first tech IPO led by a woman this year The data-driven clothing subscription company made its Nasdaq debut with 8 million shares priced at $15 each — and ended the day at $15.15. Published:11/18/2017 2:17:07 PM
[World] Glamour Women of the Year Snubs Conservative Women

Glamour's 2017 Women of the Year Awards showcased not a single Republican or conservative woman, and not from a lack of female conservative trailblazers this year.

Published:11/18/2017 2:17:07 PM
[World] Progressive pastors say Roy Moore unfit for US Senate BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) — A leading figure among religious liberals says the candidacy of Roy Moore for U.S. Senate is a struggle for the "soul of the nation." Published:11/18/2017 2:17:05 PM
[topics:places/zimbabwe] Hundreds of Commonwealth veterans who fought for the Crown are living in destitution in Zimbabwe Published:11/18/2017 2:17:03 PM
[Destroyer] Another US Navy Warship Crashes

Over the summer there were two accidental collisions involving the 7th fleet, and a total of 4 similar incidents this year... until today as yet another US Navy warship collided with a Japanese tug boat during exercises.

SputnikNews.com reports the incident occurred off the east coast of Japan. The boat was on its way to the port in Yokosuka, where the US Navy is stationed.

A Japanese tug boat has accidently damaged a US missile destroyer in Sagami Bay.

"No one was injured on either vessel and Benfold sustained minimal damage, including scrapes on its side, pending a full damage assessment," a press release of the US Navy said.

According to the report, the US Navy carried out towing exercises when the boat experienced technical problems and crashed into the side of the USS Benfold.

An investigation of the incident is underway.

Published:11/18/2017 2:17:03 PM
[Politics] Radio host GRILLS Hillary’s hypocrisy for ATTACKING Bill Clinton’s accusers!! Man are people turning on Hillary Clinton. It’s as if they feel guilty for covering up for the Clintons for decades and they’re all about to make up for it. In this . . . Published:11/18/2017 2:17:03 PM
[Immigration] [Eugene Volokh] No deportation to Jordan for woman who seems at risk of honor killing (for premarital pregnancy) An interesting opinion handed down Friday by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, Kamar v. Sessions: Kamar is a native of Lebanon and a citizen of Jordan. She was born in Lebanon in 1964, but moved to Jordan as a young child. Kamar and her family are Catholic, but adhere to Islamic […] Published:11/18/2017 2:17:02 PM
[Markets] Beat the System: The reasons Americans give for buying bitcoin show they have no idea what they’re doing It’s OK to speculate with bitcoin — but at least admit that’s what it is, writes Brett Arends.
Published:11/18/2017 2:17:02 PM
[Column] Silicon Valley could be the next hotspot for SEC whistleblowers  In recent years, the SEC has had greater success policing wrongdoing due in large part to the implementation of its whistleblower program. But the whistleblowers’ crosshairs are not limited to Wall Street. Individuals are beginning to come forward in a new sphere of the business world, one with its own reputation of a problematic, win-at-all-cost culture: Silicon Valley. Read More
Published:11/18/2017 2:17:02 PM
[The Declaration] Roy Moore's Wife Flipped the Script on Mitch McConnell — What She Wants From Him Is Mind-Blowing "...he is not a leader." Published:11/18/2017 2:17:02 PM
[] Ace of Spades Pet Thread-Answering The Ultimate Question Edition Welcome to the almost world famous Ace of Spades Pet Thread. Grab a beverage and a snack and enjoy!!!... Published:11/18/2017 2:17:02 PM
[World] Palestinians vow to suspend talks if US closes PLO mission WASHINGTON (AP) — The Palestinians threatened on Saturday to suspend all communication with the United States if the Trump administration follows through with plans to close their diplomatic office in Washington. The potential rupture in relations threatens to undermine President Donald Trump's bid for Mideast peace — a mission he has handed his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Published:11/18/2017 1:46:23 PM
[Entertainment] Chrissy Teigen Joins Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2017 With Fans' Help Chrissy Teigen, InstagramJust announced: Chrissy Teigen will not only take part in the 2017 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, but she will also close the show...according to Chrissy Teigen. The model and Lip...
Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[014b0dc4-07d7-4bf5-abc3-9ce288b9f55b] 'Flip or Flop's' Frank 'The Tank' Miller dies, Christina and Tarek El Moussa announce “Flip or Flop” stars Christina and Tarek El Moussa announced their friend and co-star Frank “The Tank” Miller has passed away. Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[Uncategorized] Welcome to California, Home of the “Prosecution Fees” “It’s absolutely a scam." Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[Science] US Navy destroyer involved in collision with Japanese tug boat, sustains minor damage No injuries were reported and minor damage was done to the Benfold, including scrapes on its side. Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[The Blog] Chris Matthews claims he was “too tough” on Bill Clinton during Lewinsky era

Matthews conveniently forgot how Monica Lewinsky was villified by the media.

The post Chris Matthews claims he was “too tough” on Bill Clinton during Lewinsky era appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[US Politics] Obama advisor really believes cutting taxes on the wealthy is ‘giving’ money to rich people

Dan Pfeiffer really believes that cutting taxes on the wealthy is "giving" the rich more money.

The post Obama advisor really believes cutting taxes on the wealthy is ‘giving’ money to rich people appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[Politics] Radio host GRILLS Hillary’s hypocrisy for ATTACKING Bill Clinton’s accusers!! Man are people turning on Hillary Clinton. It’s as if they feel guilty for covering up for the Clintons for decades and they’re all about to make up for it. In this . . . Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[GBLT] [VIDEO] Tackling the language travesty that is transgender grammar

This challenge to the assault on language that the transgender movement demands is a pretty good re-working of Abbott and Costello’s “Who’s on First” shtick! Hat tip: Daily Wire

The post [VIDEO] Tackling the language travesty that is transgender grammar appeared first on Bookworm Room.

Published:11/18/2017 1:46:22 PM
[The Declaration] Trophy-Hunting Controversy Takes a Sick Turn When Piers Morgan Reveals What — Or Who — He'd Like to Hunt He's usually against guns, but... Published:11/18/2017 1:16:18 PM
[Media] WaPo gives its take on revived scrutiny of Bill Clinton, gets spanked HARD for living in the past

Politicians and pundits are revisiting the allegations against Bill Clinton, but not everyone is willing to go there.

The post WaPo gives its take on revived scrutiny of Bill Clinton, gets spanked HARD for living in the past appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 1:16:18 PM
[World] Ten Commandments Statue to Be Erected at Shopping Mall

An 8-foot Ten Commandments statue will go up at a Texas mall, a move the new owner says is meant to "touch [the viewer's] heart and give them new hope that day."

Published:11/18/2017 1:10:39 PM
[1fbe71b0-f243-4a6b-86a7-d516178bc6e7] AC/DC Co-Founder Malcolm Young Dead at 64 AC/DC Co-Founder Malcolm Young Dead at 64 Published:11/18/2017 1:10:37 PM
[Wisconsin] Why a Firm Believer in Tax Cuts Could Derail the Senate Tax Cut Plan Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a small-business owner, says the measure would give an unfair advantage to larger corporations. Published:11/18/2017 1:10:36 PM
[Entertainment] Teen Mom's Tyler Baltierra Praises Catelynn Lowell as She Begins Treatment Tyler Baltierra, Catelynn LowellTeen Mom OG star Catelynn Lowell Baltierra's husband Tyler Baltierra says is amazed by her courage as she seeks professional help. The reality star had posted on Twitter on Friday,...
Published:11/18/2017 1:10:36 PM
[In The News] GOP Mayor caught calling Trump ‘an idiot’ on hot mic

By Rich Mitchell -

John Giles and Jeff Flake hot mic

An Arizona Republican mayor firmly planted his foot in his mouth Friday when a hot mic caught an anti-Trump comment at a tax reform event. Mesa Mayor John Giles referred to President Donald Trump as “an idiot” while trying to convince Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) to run against him in the 2020 election. “Think how much fun it would be just to be the foil, you know, and point out what an idiot this guy is,” Giles said. The comment came just after Flake commented on President Trump and Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore. “If we become the party of Roy ...

GOP Mayor caught calling Trump ‘an idiot’ on hot mic is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 1:10:35 PM
[Social] Tap tap tap  We are now walking through a media desert. While access to content is astronomically high, the content that we read is dead, lifeless, and derivative. Yes, I see the irony in posting my criticism of the state of online media on, well, online media, but I want to explore how we got here and what we can do about it. We begin in about 1983. The education necessary to interact with media of that… Read More
Published:11/18/2017 1:10:35 PM
[Africa] 'Zimbabwean Spring' Looms As 1000s Celebrate Mugabe's Imminent Exit

Tens of thousands of jubilant Zimbabweans joined rallies on Saturday to celebrate the imminent departure of President Robert Mugabe, the only leader they’ve known since independence in 1980.

As Bloomberg reports, Mugabe triggered his own downfall by firing Emmerson Mnangagwa as his vice president last week, a move that prompted the military to intervene and place him under house arrest.

On Friday, the ruling party’s 10 provincial committees resolved to oust the 93-year-old president, a decision likely to be ratified at a meeting of its central executive on Sunday.

The nation’s parliament is due to reconvene on Tuesday and could impeach him should he remain steadfast in his refusal to resign.

In Harare, the capital, crowds gathered at Zimbabwe Grounds in the Highfield township and at Freedom Square in the city center, while smaller groups marched through the streets, singing and dancing.

A rally in Bulawayo, the second-largest city, also drew thousands of people. Some protesters draped themselves in the national flag and others embraced soldiers who kept watch on the festivities.

Several street signs bearing Mugabe’s name were ripped down...

"This is it, he must go,” said Ronald Mupfumi, a 29-year-old unemployed graduate who joined the throng in Harare’s streets.

 

“These guys made us suffer for a long time."

As a reminder, under Mugabe’s watch, the economy has imploded, leaving 95 percent of the workforce unemployed, according to Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions estimates, and forcing as many as 3 million people into exile.

“We are at the dawn of a new era,” Patrick Chinamasa, who Mugabe fired as finance minister last month, told the crowd who gathered in Highlands township. Mugabe “should resign forthwith. The criminals who surround him must be arrested and thrown in jail.”

 

Speaking at the same rally, Water and Climate Minister Oppah Muchinguridenounced the First Lady and called on the crowd to “march to State House to remove the tyrant.”

 

“If there is ever to be a Zimbabwean Spring, today’s marches are the first green shoots,” Charles Laurie, head of African analysis at Bath, U.K.-based Verisk Maplecroft, said by email.

 

For the first time in 37 years, Zimbabweans stood today as a united people. The mass public demonstrations are intended to ensure there is no backsliding as the notoriously wily Mugabe seeks to negotiate an exit to the unprecedented political crisis.”

While hope is clearly high for a new and positive change, we have seen this picture before in Africa...

Published:11/18/2017 1:10:35 PM
[Video games] How a Star Wars video game faced charges that it was promoting gambling
How a Star Wars video game faced charges that it was promoting gambling
Imagine buying a new chess set. Chess is your favorite game. Also you love “Star Wars.” It’s a Star Wars chess set! Now imagine playing your friend who spent $200 for the random chance that his pawns obtain the board-clearing powers of a queen. Plus his king looks like Darth Vader and yours still looks like […]
Published:11/18/2017 1:10:35 PM
[Climate ugliness] Institutional decay in climate science Roger Pielke Jr. describes the decay of climate science By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website Summary: Science and public policy collide in climate science as they have in few fields. Here Roger Pielke Jr., describes an example of how the resulting stress has begun to corrupt the field. “Pielke on Climate” – Part… Published:11/18/2017 1:10:35 PM
[Science] Top general would reject 'illegal' nuke order from Trump "I think some people think we're stupid. We're not stupid people. We think about these things a lot. When you have this responsibility, how.... Published:11/18/2017 1:10:34 PM
[Markets] The New York Post: Lena Dunham slammed on Twitter for defending ‘Girls’ writer accused of rape Social media has unleashed on Lena Dunham for her decision to defend a “Girls” producer accused of rape.
Published:11/18/2017 1:10:34 PM
[Politics] Mark Levin on House tax bill: Why didn’t they cut taxes ACROSS the BOARD?! The Great One, Mark Levin weighed in on the House tax bill, and he said he pretty much supports the corporate facets of the legislation, but was very disappointed on the individual . . . Published:11/18/2017 12:46:22 PM
[Politics] Why no one is talking about Trump’s game-changing deal Glen Dale, W. Va. — Bad news travels fast. Good news, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to travel at all. Last weekend in Beijing, as part of his 12-day trip to Asia, President Trump announced that the US and China had signed an $83.7 billion deal to create a number of petrochemical projects in West Virginia over... Published:11/18/2017 12:46:21 PM
[Science] CIA not inviting reporters to annual holiday party One Obama-era official told Politico that he would have actually been "more surprised" if he didn't end the tradition. Published:11/18/2017 12:46:21 PM
[Bear Market] Unbridled Exuberance...

Authored by James Stack via InvesTech.com,

From public confidence to bullish sentiment to the normally mundane employment data, the U.S. economy and stock market are reaching historic levels not seen in decades.  Last month, consumer confidence hit its highest level since December 2000.  The percentage of bullish investment advisors recently touched lofty levels that were last reached in January 1987.  And this month, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that job layoffs dropped to a 44-year low!

This might all sound like great news, and on the surface it obviously is.  But what is forgotten in today’s exuberant celebrations - and the above statistics - is that both the economy and stock market historically peak when skies are blue and no storm clouds are in sight: December 2000 was just 3 months before the start of the 2001 recession. January 1987 was 9 months before Black Monday struck. And 44 years ago (1973), the stock market was about to suffer its worst annual loss in 35 years! If the S&P 500 closes higher in November, it will have posted a positive total return for 13 consecutive months, surpassed only once in 90 years – 1959.  The next year (1960) the economy entered a recession.

We’re not sharing these insights because we have turned bearish in our market outlook.  We haven’t.  Most technical evidence and virtually all macroeconomic data still point to new bull market highs immediately ahead.  However, it is becoming increasingly important to remember that trees do not grow to the sky, and bull markets do not last forever.  And don’t forget that virtually every bear market except one (1956) has repossessed or taken back roughly one-half or more of the previous bull market’s gain. 

Today, that would equate to 8,500 DJIA points!

Unbridled Exuberance... While the Novice Make Merry, the Seasoned are Wary

One of the most apparent examples of investors’ increased appetite for risk lies in the “FANG” stocks.  These modern day “four horsemen” of technology and consumer stocks –Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google– are considered leaders in the emergent areas of today’s economy.  Because of their outsized estimates for future growth, this narrow group of stocks has radically outperformed the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2015.

However, value-conscious investors have had difficulty justifying ownership of this speculative quartet due to valuation risk.

They trade at a combined P/E ratio of 48.5 based on trailing earnings – nearly twice that of the S&P 500.

Enthusiasm for the FANG stocks has reached such a feverish pitch that Wall Street is creating new products to tap into the public’s insatiable appetite for these exciting invest ments.  The four FANG stocks are joined by six other hot tech names to form the NYSE FANG+ Index.  Futures contracts on this Index began trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) last week.   Investors can now “Trade the Top of Tech” in the futures market to quickly increase or decrease their exposure to these speculative companies.

In past market tops of the late 1990s and 2007 we exposed the danger of investor and consumer exuberance along with the “boom” headlines that typically accompany a cyclical peak.  This is not an infallible relationship, however, so the appearance of the above headlines today does not necessarily mean the market top is in place.  Rather, it reinforces the need to maintain professional skepticism and an emphasis on risk management, which can be in short supply at this stage in the market cycle.

Nowhere is the bullish consensus more obvious than in the Advisors Sentiment Survey tracked by Investors Intelligence (graph below).  While the percentage of bears is typically considered a more reliable contrarian indicator at extreme readings, we find it interesting to note that the percentage of bullish advisors recently hit the highest level since January 1987 – only nine months before the 1987 Crash…

Valuation risk remains an overarching concern for today’s aging bull market.  Although the leading economic evidence remains overwhelmingly positive, U.S. stocks are not cheap by historical standards.  The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 based on trailing earnings is 24.8, which is well above the 90-year average, as shown in the graph below. 

How expensive is the S&P 500 today?  The P/E for this popular Index has exceeded 24.0 just over 10% of the time since 1928, as shown by the dark blue bars on the graph at right.  The light blue bars eliminate the distortions from the Technology Bubble of the late 1990s and the Financial Crisis in 2008-09 when corporate earnings evaporated.  If we exclude those extreme periods, the S&P 500 P/E ratio has been in the rarified range above 24.0 less than 3% of the time. 

Lofty valuations do not cause bear markets, and stocks can remain overvalued for very long periods of time.  However, high valuations increase downside risk and diminish the margin of safety so essential to successful long-term investing.  Consequently, it is particularly important now to employ a safety-first strategy and avoid overvalued momentum stocks, as they will undoubtedly fall the hardest when a bear market does arrive. 

A Potential Warning in the Technical Evidence...

Sometimes it’s striking how quickly the technical picture can shift in an aging bull market.  Take the three graphs below, for instance.  When we last published this trio of charts in early October, all three were hitting new highs in unison.   Now both the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index are starting to diverge substantially from the blue chip DJIA, which is sitting just below its recent all-time high.

Major peaks in the DJIA are usually preceded by a top in one or more of the economicallysensitive secondary indexes, but not every divergence necessarily signals trouble ahead.

When both the secondary indexes shown here diverge simultaneously, however, it’s a significant development, and time for heightened vigilance.

NLC:  Is Distribution Imminent?

Our Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) shown below remains steadfast on the surface with the bullish “Selling Vacuum” [*1] at +4 and no visible sign of “Distribution” [*2 – shaded region]…  yet! 

Even so, careful analysis of the underlying leadership data since mid-October shows a steady deterioration in the internal numbers.

Sometimes it’s striking how quickly the technical picture can shift in an aging bull market.  Take the three graphs at right, for instance.  When we last published this trio of charts in early October, all three were hitting new highs in unison.   Now both the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index are starting to diverge substantially from the blue chip DJIA, which is sitting just below its recent all-time high.

Major peaks in the DJIA are usually preceded by a top in one or more of the economically-sensitive secondary indexes, but not every divergence necessarily signals trouble ahead. 

When both the secondary indexes shown here diverge simultaneously, however, it’s a significant development, and time for heightened vigilance.

Selling pressure is stealthily creeping upward, and it appears to be broad-based. If the current trend continues, we could start to see Distribution in our NLC by the time our December issue goes to press.  If Distribution appears and subsequently drops below -50, then bear market risk will become elevated and that could warrant a more defensive stance

 

Published:11/18/2017 12:46:21 PM
[Quick Takes] ‘Gender Ally’ Program at U. Oklahoma Teaches Students Eight Different Sets of Pronouns "Readers are also given helpful pronunciation tips" Published:11/18/2017 12:46:21 PM
[Climate ugliness] Oreskes Inability to Keep Her Mouth Shut & the Big Erik Conway Problem Guest essay by Russell Cook Excerpt:  If Conway and Oreskes were placed under oath in courtroom appearances or in congressional hearing appearances, would their narratives be forced to line up right? That’s a good question. At a rock-bottom level, this question must be asked: if a particular set of details is as damaging to Dr… Published:11/18/2017 12:46:20 PM
[worldNews] Party set to sack Mugabe, Zimbabweans celebrate expected downfall HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's ruling party will dismiss President Robert Mugabe on Sunday and reinstate Emmerson Mnangagwa, the vice-president he fired, two party sources told Reuters on Saturday, as ecstatic crowds celebrated the expected downfall.
Published:11/18/2017 12:46:20 PM
[2017 News] Judicial Watch Sues Department of Justice for Communications Relating to ‘Russian Lawyer’ Immigration Parole Judicial Watch Sues Department of Justice for Communications Relating to ‘Russian Lawyer’ Immigration Parole. If she wasn’t supposed to be in the US then who let her sneak in? Can you spell s-e-t-u-p? Published:11/18/2017 12:46:20 PM
[Markets] Trump is delaying decision to allow elephant trophies into the country President Donald Trump says he is postponing his administration’s decision to reverse the ban on importing big-game trophies from Zimbabwe and Zambia.
Published:11/18/2017 12:46:19 PM
[KRE] Last Chance To Pick Up This 5.3% Yielder On The Cheap Published:11/18/2017 12:16:04 PM
[Entertainment] Serena Williams' Sister Venus Williams Was a Stunning Bridesmaid at Her Wedding Serena Williams, Alexis Ohanian, Venus Williams, WeddingWhile all eyes were on the bride, the groom and their baby, Venus Williams also turned heads at her sister Serena Williams' wedding with a stunning bridesmaid look. The tennis...
Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[World] 'Who?': LaVar Ball on Trump regarding release of son, fellow UCLA players from detention in China Ball's son, LiAngelo Ball, along with Cody Riley and Jalen Hill, were arrested and questioned in China on Nov. 7 on suspicion on shoplifting... Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[General] It’s ON: Make your plans now for International Men’s Day on Sunday

The public is not taking kindly to the idea of celebrating International Men's Day this year.

The post It’s ON: Make your plans now for International Men’s Day on Sunday appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[Drug control law] What National Review Gets Wrong About the Opioid Crisis and the War on Drugs

Via The Daily Bell

Alright, libertarians, you wanted drug legalization, right? Well, with opioids, via loose prescriptions, you got it, and what’s happened? We are in the middle of the worst epidemic of overdose and addiction this country has ever seen, thousands are dropping like flies, and it appears that things will be getting worse before they get better. Your theories might sound nice when you don’t have skin in the game, but when reality intrudes on your fantasies of a free society, real people pay the price. Right?

Well, not quite.

The above argument might sound familiar because a variation of it is trotted out during every national crisis. Be it war, financial instability, poverty, during health insurance debates, or any other crisis or threat, a chorus rises to blame supporters of a free society for their juvenile dogmatism that is surely causing the very predicament everyone is suffering under.

“There are no libertarians in financial crises,” gloated mainstream financial analysts during the subprime meltdown, which was caused by “free market fundamentalists”, according to George Soros.

The opioid crisis is no different, but one would have thought the fingers would have pointed at libertarians far earlier. This may be partially due to the fact that support for ending the Drug War occupies a strange grey area between Left and Right. More traditional, law-and-order type conservatives generally support the War on Drugs, as well as the tough-on-crime tactics used to prosecute it, while the Left tends to support ending the Drug War due to its violation of civil liberties.

This has always seemed strange to me since conservatives tend to support more freedom as opposed to less, smaller government as opposed to big, and the Left tends to always and everywhere support greater restriction of liberty for the ostensible benefit of, well, someone, somewhere, and a large, intrusive government to do it. But, during a crisis, regardless of Left or Right, voices will denounce liberty in favor of something more “responsible”. “We don’t have the luxury of being libertarians right now”, say the condescending, adult voices of reason and responsibility.

And so it is with Jonah Goldberg at National Review, who recently authored a piece against the libertarian argument for full drug legalization, essentially stating that an opioid-addicted dystopia would be the inevitable future of a libertarian society, with heroin sold on the shelf right next to Johnny Walker, loaves of bread, and the morning paper.

In Goldberg’s piece, “The Opioid Crisis Should Make Libertarians Rethink the Drug Legalization Argument”, he sees the opioid crisis as an experiment in drug legalization. He then looks at the outcome, mass overdose deaths, then finger wags libertarians for their blind devotion to ideology.

David French had a similar take on the crisis in a piece back in April, “The Opioid Crisis Should Kill the Call to Legalize Hard Drugs”. He sees an opioid crisis and blames “drug libertarianism”.

Forgive me, but the libertarian argument for full legalization is a bit more nuanced than that.

Libertarians understand full well the dangers that hard drugs pose for society at large, but this is the very reason for their support for full legalization. Far from wanting anyone and their children to get their hands on heroin, they understand that drug prohibition itself has been the cause of the widespread use of these hard drugs.

Richard Cowen’s 1986 article, “How the Narcs Created Crack”, illustrates the “Iron Law of Prohibition”, which essentially states that the harder the crackdown on drugs, the harder the drugs become. There was no national conversation about heroin, meth, or crack-cocaine during the late 70s because there was no epidemic associated with these drugs. It was only once a militarized crackdown on marijuana and cocaine really got underway that black market entrepreneurs developed and sold the economic equivalent of bathtub gin that these hard drugs became a problem.

In my home state of Oklahoma, where meth use is rampant, law enforcement effectively eliminated the mom-and-pop labs that produced meth locally. But meth use still increased, and overdoses increased. What explains this? The Mexican drug cartels moved in, bringing their high potency meth, produced south of the border in super labs, and began supplying the demand. Oklahoma law enforcement unwittingly invited the cartels into this state, and are effectively the chief enforcers of their market share.

There is now a push by the Oklahoma AG to treat opioid manufacturers like organized crime through the use of the RICO law, but it only takes just a little imagination to understand that this would only benefit real organized crime.

The solution to the opioid epidemic isn’t to abandon the philosophy of liberty and opt for a renewed Drug War, but to develop a non-opioid based painkiller and make it widely available to patients and addicts. Cannabis appears to be the chief contender for this role, as it has been shown that addicts can be successfully weaned off their deadly poisons through the use of marijuana. And when given the choice, pain patients overwhelmingly prefer marijuana to opioids. So what’s the hold-up?

Prescribing heroin to those most susceptible to addiction, pain sufferers, should be an idea tossed in the dustbin, but the corollary policy doesn’t lie in the simplistic “let’s fight a war!” mindset. Simple-minded prohibition brought us to this precipice, it cannot bring us out. An amped-up, militarized war on prescription opioids will lead to an unprecedented plague of black market heroin, laced with fentanyl, elephant tranquilizers, and God knows what else.

The situation, then, will truly be out of control. The Cartel presence in the U.S. will become massive, and ubiquitous, as black market heroin profits will soar, corrupting law enforcement, the political class, and everyone standing to cash in. The United States will then truly become a Narco State.

Periods of national crisis are the true test of defenders of liberty and are the very times to defend the philosophy of liberty most vigorously, because it’s this philosophy that will lead the way out.

Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[TC] Gillmor Gang: Dream On Gillmor Gang Artcard The Gillmor Gang — Frank Radice, Esteban Kolsky, Kevin Marks, Denis Pombriant, and Steve Gillmor. Recorded live Sunday, November 12, 2017. G3: Safe Sex — Elisa Camahort Page, Lisa Padilla, Francine Hardaway, and Tina Chase Gillmor. Recorded live Friday, November 10, 2017. @stevegillmor, @fradice, @ekolsky, @DenisPombriant, @kevinmarks Produced and directed by Tina Chase Gillmor… Read More
Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[Science] Turkey investigating Preet Bharara Bharara is being probed by the government of Turkey for putting a Turkish-Iranian businessman on trial. Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[The Blog] Mugabe nephew: Dictator “ready to die for what is correct”

Rest peacefully ... or requiescat in pace?

The post Mugabe nephew: Dictator “ready to die for what is correct” appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[Politics] Mark Levin on House tax bill: Why didn’t they cut taxes ACROSS the BOARD?! The Great One, Mark Levin weighed in on the House tax bill, and he said he pretty much supports the corporate facets of the legislation, but was very disappointed on the individual . . . Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[The Declaration] Maher Plays 'He's Not as Bad as' Card in Defense of Franken — Trashes Trump, Moore "I know the difference between..." Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[] Saturday Gardening Thread: Lookin' a little seedy [KT] Where did that corn go? Hello, gardeners and friends of gardeners. Today's pre-Thanksgiving thread was partly inspired, appropriately, by last week's Food Thread. It featured some foods with seeds, like Avocados. If you have an avocado tree, you may... Published:11/18/2017 12:16:02 PM
[World] Anarchists Vandalize Philadelphia Police Station and Cars

Anarchists vandalized a police station and smashed two cop cars in Philadelphia Thursday night.

Published:11/18/2017 11:46:12 AM
[topics:things/religion] Advent has been taken over by consumerism, clergy warn, as sales of luxury calendars soar Published:11/18/2017 11:46:09 AM
[Al Franken] Where’s Al? Tom Hauser reports (Scott Johnson) KSTP has just posted the video of Tom Hauser’s report last night from Washington, D.C., on his search for Minnesota Senator Al Franken or someone to speak on his behalf. Hauser reports in his dry style, but the thing has a “Where’s Waldo” quality that any aficionado of comedy should appreciate. If you’re following the story, you won’t want to miss this. The story was posted this morning at KSTP’s Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[Science] Bill Maher: Al Franken doesn't deserve to be 'lumped in' with Roy Moore, Harvey Weinstein Maher conceded that Franken's actions were wrong, but that the senator's actions didn't compare to other accusations. Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[Uncategorized] Defecting North Korean soldier riddled with giant worms “In my over-20-year-long career as a surgeon, I have only seen something like this in a textbook.” Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[Media] Howard Fineman plays the ‘champion of women’s rights’ card in defending friend Al Franken

It's the '90s all over again; sure, Al Franken went too far (into the realm of sexual assault), but he's a champion of women's rights.

The post Howard Fineman plays the ‘champion of women’s rights’ card in defending friend Al Franken appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[Markets] To fight automation, white-collar workers must play to this strength As AI takes over, there’s more to keeping high-skilled, higher-pay white collar jobs than feebly trying to keep up with technology.
Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[Europe] GoCater spins out from La Belle Assiette to build a corporate catering marketplace  GoCater is a marketplace with hundreds of catering companies accessible from a single platform. It makes it much easier to organize events in your company. As for caterers, it’s a great way to find clients and optimize your workflows. The startup first started as a spinoff from La Belle Assiette. I’ve covered La Belle Assiette multiple times over the years. and the company is… Read More
Published:11/18/2017 11:46:08 AM
[049c970b-5fd3-44e6-9375-a51d4f82e123] Paul Teutul: My 'American Chopper' firing was one of the best things that happened to me My father did me a big favor: He fired me. Published:11/18/2017 11:19:15 AM
[Politics] TRUMP TWEETS: ‘Hillary Clinton is the worst (and biggest) loser of all time….’ El Presidente Trump had a message for Hillary Clinton that could not wait so he tweeted it out this morning. Crooked Hillary Clinton is the worst (and biggest) loser of all time. . . . Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Politics] TRUMP TWEETS: ‘Hillary Clinton is the worst (and biggest) loser of all time….’ El Presidente Trump had a message for Hillary Clinton that could not wait so he tweeted it out this morning. Crooked Hillary Clinton is the worst (and biggest) loser of all time. . . . Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[The Declaration] NBC Announcer Al Michaels Has Someone to Blame for Plummeting NFL Ratings: Trump Oh boy... Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[worldNews] Party set to sack Mugabe, sources say, as Zimbabweans march on residence HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party will meet on Sunday to dismiss President Robert Mugabe and reinstate the vice-president he dismissed, Emmerson Mnangagwa, two party sources told Reuters on Saturday.
Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Automotive] Canadian grocery chain orders 25 Tesla electric Semi trucks  Tesla’s Semi is off to a promising start, despite there being no official pricing information available yet: In addition to a Walmart pilot, Canadian grocery giant Loblaw is purchasing 25 of the heavy duty all-electric transport trucks (via Canadian Press), with a $5,000 deposit for each upfront even though pricing is TBD for the vehicle, which is supposed to start shipping in 2019.… Read More
Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Congress] The Future Looks Bleak (John Hinderaker) The traditional criticism of Democrats is that they have no solution to any problem except money. Taxing and spending is their sole policy. That critique is valid. The corresponding stereotype of Republicans is that they can’t govern. Based on the experience of the last 10 months, that criticism is also valid. President Trump has done a very good job, but the Republican Congress has been a disaster, unable to deliver Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Uncategorized] ‘Sad day for rock and roll’: Eddie Van Halen, other musicians react to the death of AC/DC’s Malcolm Young

"He will be missed."

The post ‘Sad day for rock and roll’: Eddie Van Halen, other musicians react to the death of AC/DC’s Malcolm Young appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Democrats] Emergency! Soros, Pelosi handing out new Resistance playbooks in Calif. Boss not happy? Published:11/18/2017 11:19:14 AM
[Markets] Economic Preview: Why this U.S. recession signal is probably throwing off a false alarm A historic marker used by Wall Street to determine if a recession is coming is flashing red, but there’s probably no need to worry for now about the U.S. economy.
Published:11/18/2017 11:19:13 AM
[World] Nearly One Third of American Adults to Avoid Talking Politics Over Holidays

One in three adults will intentionally avoid touching on politics this Thanksgiving and Christmas, a Reuters poll reports.

Published:11/18/2017 10:45:44 AM
[Entertainment] Harry Styles and 3 Others Confirmed as Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2017 Performers Harry StylesHarry Styles has been officially confirmed to perform at the 2017 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, after main act Katy Perry's visa was denied. Ed Razek, executive producer of the...
Published:11/18/2017 10:45:42 AM
[worldNews] Party set to sack Mugabe, sources say, as protesters march on his residence HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party will meet on Sunday to dismiss President Robert Mugabe and reinstate the vice-president he dismissed, Emmerson Mnangagwa, two party sources told Reuters on Saturday.
Published:11/18/2017 10:45:42 AM
[Entertainment] LaVar Ball isn’t thankful for President Trump’s effort in getting his son out of China

"Who?"

The post LaVar Ball isn’t thankful for President Trump’s effort in getting his son out of China appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 10:45:42 AM
[Science] Laura Ingraham: Kirsten Gillibrand 'positioning herself' for 2020 bid by jilting Bill Clinton The conservative figure also noted Gillibrand "conveniently" forgot to mention others who have accused Clinton of sexual misconduct. Published:11/18/2017 10:45:42 AM
[Quick Takes] Drexel U Students Demand Reinstatement of ‘White Genocide’ Prof He's a darling of the left wing mob. Published:11/18/2017 10:45:41 AM
[The Blog] Check out Bob Menendez’ latest explanation for why he was “persecuted”

Yep... he went there

The post Check out Bob Menendez’ latest explanation for why he was “persecuted” appeared first on Hot Air.

Published:11/18/2017 10:45:41 AM
[Entertainment and Lifestyle] Chris Stapleton – ‘Tryin’ To Untangle My Mind’

By Hanna Heller -

Chris Stapleton

Country megastar Chris Stapleton released on Friday “Tryin’ To Untangle My Mind”, the newest single from his upcoming album From a Room Volume 2. Lyrics to Chris Stapleton’s “Tryin’ To Untangle My Mind” Well I drank a lot of whiskey in my time And I’ve held a lot of women that were fine And I’ve made a little money I blew every dime Tryin’ to untangle my mind Well I’ve made a lot of choices that were wrong Had the good lord spend too many nights alone And I’ve been out on the edge And I’ve stumbled across the line Tryin’ ...

Chris Stapleton – ‘Tryin’ To Untangle My Mind’ is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 10:45:41 AM
[American Muslims] Katy Perry, Gigi Hadid Banned From China As Victoria's Secret Fashion Show Unravels

As we reported yesterday, this year’s Victoria’s Secret fashion show, which is slated to take place in Shanghai in just two weeks, is unraveling like a cheap lace thong thanks to Chinese authorities’ refusal to cooperate with its producers, and Communist Party's decision to deny visas to some of the biggest stars who were slated to participate in the show.

The latest update on the deteriorating state of affairs comes via the New York Post, which has reported that US pop sensation Katy Perry – who was slated to perform at the show – and supermodel Gigi Hadid, who was supposed to walk in the show, have been indefinitely banned from China.

Sources told the Post’s infamous Page Six gossip section that the “Roar” singer had tried applying for a visa to enter the Communist nation, but was denied by Chinese officials.

And while she was initially informed that she’d be able to gain access, the decision was apparently reversed after the government caught wind of a controversial incident from 2015, in which Perry donned a bright, glittery dress with sunflowers on it during a performance in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan.

Gigi Hadid

The innocent gesture wound up causing widespread outrage in China because the sunflower had been adopted the year before by anti-China protesters.

However, Perry also waved a Taiwanese flag during the concert in show of support for the country, which has been clashing with the mainland for years over its autonomy.

“She was initially granted a visa to perform at the VS show in Shanghai, then Chinese officials changed their minds and yanked her visa,” a source explained. “For every artist who wants to perform in China, officials comb through their social-media and press reports to see if they have done anything deemed to be offensive to the country. Maroon 5 was banned a few years ago because one band member wished the Dalai Lama happy birthday on Twitter.

Meanwhile, Hadid and a handful of other models were banned because of social media posts that apparently offended Chinese government officials.

Hadid, who was booked for the show back in August, was banned because of a February Instagram video — in which she held up a biscuit shaped like a Buddha and imitated the religious figure by squinting her eyes.

The clip was posted by the model’s sister, Bella Hadid, in February. It was later deleted following a storm of criticism as Chinese social-media users warned her not to come to Shanghai, calling her racist.

Apparently, Victoria’s Secret has decided that the show will go on, with or without Hadid:

 

 

Some of Victoria’s Secret’s biggest names have been denied entry to China, in addition to lesser-known models, such as Julia Belyakova, Kate Grigorieva and Irina Sharipova.

Model Adriana Lima’s visa has been held up due to an ongoing “diplomatic problem."

Harry Styles will reportedly replace Perry as the show’s performing artist.
 

Published:11/18/2017 10:45:41 AM
[Markets] In One Chart: Roku founder and CEO is the newest tech billionaire Anthony Wood, who incubated streaming-media company Roku while working at Netflix, has become a billionaire after the company’s stock has more than doubled in three days.
Published:11/18/2017 10:45:41 AM
[World] Tax filers in most states claim deduction targeted by GOP ATLANTA (AP) — A popular deduction targeted in the GOP's overhaul of the tax code is used by more than a quarter of all filers in a majority of states, including many led by Republicans where some residents eventually could see their federal tax bills rise. Published:11/18/2017 10:19:06 AM
[US Politics] WATCH: Cecile Richards’ 2014 take on Al Franken has aged HORRENDOUSLY

Disgusting.

The post WATCH: Cecile Richards’ 2014 take on Al Franken has aged HORRENDOUSLY appeared first on twitchy.com.

Published:11/18/2017 10:19:06 AM
[Politics] HOW did Trump crony Roger Stone know Al Franken’s scandal was coming? In one of the weirder aspects of the Al Franken scandal, it appears that Trump’s crony henchman Roger Stone knew that it was coming down the pike just hours before it hit. . . . Published:11/18/2017 10:19:06 AM
[Politics] HOW did Trump crony Roger Stone know Al Franken’s scandal was coming? In one of the weirder aspects of the Al Franken scandal, it appears that Trump’s crony henchman Roger Stone knew that it was coming down the pike just hours before it hit. . . . Published:11/18/2017 10:19:06 AM
[Entertainment] Incredibles 2 Trailer Released by Disney-Pixar: Oh, Baby! Incredibles 2 TrailerOh baby! The first Incredibles 2 trailer is here! Disney-Pixar finally dropped a teaser trailer for the sequel to the 2004 animated film on Saturday morning, thirteen years after the...
Published:11/18/2017 10:19:06 AM
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[American Express] The Great Retirement Con

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Frankly put: retirement is now a myth for the majority...

 

The Origins Of The Retirement Plan

Back during the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress promised a monthly lifetime income to soldiers who fought and survived the conflict. This guaranteed income stream, called a "pension", was again offered to soldiers in the Civil War and every American war since.

Since then, similar pension promises funded from public coffers expanded to cover retirees from other branches of government. States and cities followed suit -- extending pensions to all sorts of municipal workers ranging from policemen to politicians, teachers to trash collectors.

A pension is what's referred to as a defined benefit plan. The payout promised a worker upon retirement is guaranteed up front according to a formula, typically dependent on salary size and years of employment.

Understandably, workers appreciated the security and dependability offered by pensions. So, as a means to attract skilled talent, the private sector started offering them, too. 

The first corporate pension was offered by the American Express Company in 1875. By the 1960s, half of all employees in the private sector were covered by a pension plan.

Off-loading Of Retirement Risk By Corporations

Once pensions had become commonplace, they were much less effective as an incentive to lure top talent. They started to feel like burdensome cost centers to companies.

As America's corporations grew and their veteran employees started hitting retirement age, the amount of funding required to meet current and future pension funding obligations became huge. And it kept growing. Remember, the Baby Boomer generation, the largest ever by far in US history, was just entering the workforce by the 1960s.

Companies were eager to get this expanding liability off of their backs. And the more poorly-capitalized firms started defaulting on their pensions, stiffing those who had loyally worked for them.

So, it's little surprise that the 1970s and '80s saw the introduction of personal retirement savings plans. The Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA) was formed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) in 1974. And the first 401k plan was created in 1980.

These savings vehicles are defined contribution plans. The future payout of the plan is variable (i.e., unknown today), and will be largely a function of how much of their income the worker directs into the fund over their career, as well as the market return on the fund's investments.

Touted as a revolutionary improvement for the worker, these plans promised to give the individual power over his/her own financial destiny. No longer would it be dictated by their employer.

Your company doesn't offer a pension? No worries: open an IRA and create your own personal pension fund.

Afraid your employer might mismanage your pension fund? A 401k removes that risk. You decide how your retirement money is invested.

Want to retire sooner? Just increase the percent of your annual income contributions.

All this sounded pretty good to workers. But it sounded GREAT to their employers.

Why? Because it transferred the burden of retirement funding away from the company and onto its employees. It allowed for the removal of a massive and fast-growing liability off of the corporate balance sheet, and materially improved the outlook for future earnings and cash flow.

As you would expect given this, corporate America moved swiftly over the next several decades to cap pension participation and transition to defined contribution plans.

The table below shows how vigorously pensions (green) have disappeared since the introduction of IRAs and 401ks (red):

(Source)

So, to recap: 40 years ago, a grand experiment was embarked upon. One that promised US workers: Using these new defined contribution vehicles, you'll be better off when you reach retirement age.

Which raises a simple but very important question: How have things worked out?

The Ugly Aftermath

America The Broke

Well, things haven't worked out too well.

Three decades later, what we're realizing is that this shift from dedicated-contribution pension plans to voluntary private savings was a grand experiment with no assurances. Corporations definitely benefited, as they could redeploy capital to expansion or bottom line profits. But employees? The data certainly seems to show that the experiment did not take human nature into account enough – specifically, the fact that just because people have the option to save money for later use doesn't mean that they actually will.

First off, not every American worker (by far) is offered a 401k or similar retirement plan through work. But of those that are, 21% choose not to participate (source).

As a result, 1 in 4 of those aged 45-64 and 22% of those 65+ have $0 in retirement savings (source). Forty-nine percent of American adults of all ages aren't saving anything for retirement.

In 2016, the Economic Policy Institute published an excellent chartbook titled The State Of American Retirement (for those inclined to review the full set of charts on their website, it's well worth the time). The EPI's main conclusion from their analysis is that the switchover of the US workforce from defined-benefit pension plans to self-directed retirement savings vehicles (e..g, 401Ks and IRAs) has resulted in a sizeable drop in retirement preparedness. Retirement wealth has not grown fast enough to keep pace with our aging population.

The stats illustrated by the EPI's charts are frightening on a mean, or average, level. For instance, for all workers 32-61, the average amount saved for retirement is less than $100,000. That's not much to live on in the last decades of your twilight years. And that average savings is actually lower than it was back in 2007, showing that households have still yet to fully recover the wealth lost during the Great Recession.

But mean numbers are skewed by the outliers. In this case, the multi-$million households are bringing up the average pretty dramatically, making things look better than they really are. It's when we look at the median figures that things get truly scary:

Nearly half of families have no retirement account savings at all. That makes median (50th percentile) values low for all age groups, ranging from $480 for families in their mid-30s to $17,000 for families approaching retirement in 2013. For most age groups, median account balances in 2013 were less than half their pre-recession peak and lower than at the start of the new millennium.

(Source)

The 50th percentile household aged 56-61 has only $17,000 to retire on. That's dangerously close to the Federal poverty level income for a family of two for just a single year.

Most planners advise saving enough before retirement to maintain annual living expenses at about 70-80% of what they were during one's income-earning years. Medicare out-of-pocket costs alone are expected to be between $240,000 and $430,000 over retirement for a 65-year-old couple retiring today.

The gap between retirement savings and living costs in one's later years is pretty staggering:

  • Nearly 83% of retired households have less saved than Medicare costs alone will consume.
  • One-third of retired households are entirely dependent on Social Security. On average, that's only $1,230 per month a hard income to live on. (source)
  • 34 percent of older Americans depend on credit cards to pay for basic living expenses such as mortgage payments, groceries, and utilities. (source

As for Medicare, the out-of-pocket costs could easily soar over retirement. The Wall Street Journal reports that the current estimate of Medicare's unfunded liability now tops $42 Trillion. Such a mind-boggling gap makes it highly likely that current retirees will not receive all of the entitlements they are being promised.

And the denial being shown by baby boomers entering retirement is frightening. Many simply plan to work longer before retiring, with a growing percentage saying they plan to work "forever". 

But the data shows that declining health gives older Americans no choice but to leave the work force eventually, whether they want to or not. Years of surveys by the Employment Benefit Research Institute show that fully half of current retirees had to leave the work force sooner than desired due to health problems, disability, or layoffs.

Add to this the nefarious impact of the Federal Reserve's prolonged 0% interest rate policy, which has made it extremely hard for retirees with fixed-income investments to generate a meaningful income from them.

The number of Americans aged 65 years and older is projected to more than double in the next 40 years:

Will the remaining body of active workers be able to support this tsunami of underfunded seniors? Don't bet on it.

Especially since their retirement savings prospects are even more dim. With long-stagnant real wages and punishing price inflation in the cost of living, Generation X and Millennials are hard-pressed to put money away for their twilight years:

(Source)

Public Pensions: Broken Promises

And for those "lucky" folks expecting to enjoy a public pension, there's a lot of uncertainty as to whether they're going to receive all they've been promised.

Due to underfunded contributions, years of portfolio under-performance due to the Federal Reserve's 0% interest rate policy, poor fund management, and other reasons, many of the federal and state pensions are woefully under-captialized. The below chart from former Dallas Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino-Booth shows how the total sum of unfunded public pension obligations exploded from $292 billion in 2007 to $1.9 trillion by the end of 2016:

(Source)

And the daily headlines of failing state and local pension funds (Illinois, Kentucky, New JerseyDallas, Providence -- to name but a few) show that the problem is metastasizing across the nation at an accelerating rate.

Affording Your Future

The bottom line when it comes to retirement is that you're on your own. The vehicles and the promises you've been given are proving woefully insufficient to fund the "retirement" dream you've been sold your whole life.

That's the bad news.

But the good news is that the dream is still attainable. There are strategies and behaviors that, if adopted now, will make it much more likely for you to be able to afford to retire -- and in a way you can enjoy.

In Part 2: Success Strategies For Retirement, we detail out these best practices for a solvent retirement, including providing 14 specific action steps you can start taking right now in your life that will materially improve your odds of enjoying your later years with grace. For far too many Americans, "retirement" will remain a perpetual myth. Don't let that happen to you. Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

 

Published:11/18/2017 10:19:05 AM
[Entertainment and Lifestyle] Country Singer Releases ‘Take a Knee .. My Ass!’

By Hanna Heller -

Neal McCoy - Take a Knee My Ass

Country Singer Neal McCoy released this week a song pushing back against those athlete’s engaged in National Anthem protests by kneeling during its playing at games. Lyrics to Neal McCoy’s “Take a Knee My Ass” I pledge allegiance to the flag Of the United States of America I’ll stand and place my hand upon my heart Every time her anthem plays When I see somebody on TV Take their stand on bended knee Whether it’s on astro turf or grass I think of those whose freedom was not free I say, “Take a knee? My ass!” I’ll stand up for ...

Country Singer Releases ‘Take a Knee .. My Ass!’ is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust.

Published:11/18/2017 10:19:05 AM
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Published:11/18/2017 10:19:05 AM
[] Thread before the Gardening Thread: The Gods of the Market Place [KT] Serving your mid-day open thread needs The Forum is connected to the Marketplace, etc. Happy Saturday, Horde! What a week. It's been kinda of hard for me to keep up with the latest approved opinions from our Gods of the... Published:11/18/2017 10:19:05 AM
[World] Donald and Melania Trump Wedding Cake Souvenir Auction

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[Entertainment] AC/DC co-founder Malcolm Young dead at 64 He helped form AC/DC in Sydney, Australia with his brother Angus in 1973. AC/DC is known for hits such as 'Highway to Hell' and 'Thunderstruck.'
     
 
 
Published:11/18/2017 9:48:51 AM
[Markets] Market Extra: High-yield bond funds see 3rd largest weekly outflows on record Investors in junk bonds ran for the exits this week.
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