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[] Sen. Chuck Schumer insists Hunter Biden has nothing to do with the facts of the impeachment trial Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[] "I believe John Bolton," says ... Trump's former chief of staff? Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[Politics] Sanders Supporters Unhappy as DNC Loads Up on Hillary Backers The naming multiple people who backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 to this year's Democratic National Convention rules committee is being ripped by Sen. Bernie Sanders', I-Vt., supporters, according to The Hill. Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[Markets] U.S. Steel Earnings Are Coming. Here’s What To Expect. It's been a horrible year for U.S. Steel shareholders. The stock is down 58% over the past 12 months. Full-year results will be reported Thursday evening. Investors are hoping for some relief. Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[Markets] Bernie Bros Furious (Again) At "Hostile" DNC Appointments After Sanders Soars Into Dem Lead Bernie Bros Furious (Again) At "Hostile" DNC Appointments After Sanders Soars Into Dem Lead

It's like deja vu all over again...

It would appear the Democratic Party elites are in full panic mode as despite all their (and their liberal media mates) efforts to bad-mouth Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Senator is soaring in the polls, overtaking 'sleepy' Joe both in surveys and at the bookies.

Today, The Hill reports that a new poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading the field of Democratic contenders in California, where about 40 percent of all the convention delegates will be allocated on Super Tuesday.

Sanders also leads in Iowa...

And Sanders lead in New Hampshire...

And on the national level, is rapidly catching Biden...

And finally, where it really matters - putting your money where your mouth is - Bernie is exploding higher, surging past Biden to lead the Democratic Party nomination odds...

Source: Bloomberg

And it is not likely to slow down anytime soon, as the Sanders campaign announced Tuesday it would launch its first ads in Super Tuesday states, spending $2.5 million between California and Texas.

All of which is probably why - after failing with accusations of sexism and verbal attacks from Hilary and Obama - The DNC has stepped up to the plate (again) to disavow Democratic voters in America that they believe in any sort of democracy.

'Bernie Bros' are venting frustration at DNC Chairman Tom Perez over his initial appointments to the committees that will oversee the rules and party platform at the nominating convention in Milwaukee later this year.

Specifically, as The Hill reports, Sanders' allies are incensed by two names in particular:

  • Former Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who will co-chair the rules committee, and

  • Hillary Clinton’s former campaign chairman John Podesta, who will have a seat on that committee.

The Sanders campaign unsuccessfully sought to have Frank removed from the rules committee in 2016, describing him as an “aggressive attack surrogate for the Clinton campaign.”

And, as The Hill details, Podesta, a longtime Washington political consultant and Clinton confidant, is viewed with contempt by some on the left. One of Podesta’s hacked emails from 2016 showed him asking a Democratic strategist where to “stick the knife in” Sanders, who lost the nomination to Clinton that year after a divisive primary contest.

“The appointments also include individuals that are outright hostile to Bernie Sanders and his supporters," Yasmine Taeb, a DNC member from Virginia, exclaimed.

"It's not the message the DNC should be sending to the grassroots right now when we're all working aggressively to defeat the racist in the White House.”

“If the DNC believes it’s going to get away in 2020 with what it did in 2016, it has another thing coming,” Sanders' campaign co-chair Nina Turner blasted.

Even the neocons are panicking...

How will the military-industrial-complex survive under a socialist president?

As The Hill concludes, Perez and his team had nothing to do with the party’s disastrous 2016 convention, which took place under the cloud of WikiLeaks releasing hacked DNC emails that showed political bias in favor of Clinton over Sanders.

But Clinton’s recent return to the spotlight to bash Sanders and relitigate both her 2016 primary victory and general election loss has reignited tensions between establishment Democrats and grassroots liberals.

With Sanders rising in the polls, there are new fears among his supporters that the national party will stack the deck against him, particularly if there is a contested convention.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 17:15
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Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[Markets] Earnings Results: AMD stock slides as outlook falls below Wall Street view Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares declined in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker’s outlook fell below Wall Street estimates and data-center sales did not come in as well as expected.
Published:1/28/2020 4:38:36 PM
[worldNews] Trump leaps into Middle East fray with plan that favors Israel, upsets Palestinians U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday proposed creating a Palestinian state as part of a Middle East peace solution, drawing Palestinian condemnation for imposing strict conditions and for agreeing to let Israel maintain control of long-contested West Bank settlements.
Published:1/28/2020 4:38:35 PM
[Politics] Senate Republicans met to discuss witnesses and here’s what we know… Senate Republicans met today to discuss witnesses and such after the closing arguments were over. The meeting is completed and here’s what we know: “The overwhelming consensus is we’ve heard enough – . . . Published:1/28/2020 4:38:35 PM
[Apps] Match Group CEO Mandy Ginsberg is stepping down Match Group, home to Tinder, Match, OKCupid, PoF, and a host of other online dating apps, announced today that CEO Mandy Ginsberg would be stepping down from her position after 14 years with the company. She’s served in the CEO role since her appointment in 2017. Related to this, Ginsberg will also resign from Match’s […] Published:1/28/2020 4:38:35 PM
[] Breaking: Noted Twitter-Addict and Morbidly Obese Person Counsels Self-Restraint This guy's "shoulders" look like they should have nipples I've never seen a guy so damn proud to teach at extension school.... Published:1/28/2020 4:38:35 PM
[] FLASHBACK-- Rick Wilson on CNN mocking Trump over finding Ukraine on a map did so on the network showing functional issues with geography Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[] Unspeakable evil: A fisherman dredged up evidence of a murder spree involving five children Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Politics] NBC: Lamar Alexander Key to Witnesses in Trump Trial Set to retire at the end of his term, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., could provide the pivotal vote for witnesses in President Donald Trump's impeachment trial, NBC News reported. Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Politics] DOJ accuses John Bolton of ‘grossly’ mischaracterizing Trump’s remarks The DOJ is accusing Bolton, via his book, of grossly mischaracterizing a discussion he had with AG Barr, suggesting it’s not even remotely correct: NY POST – The Justice Department is denying . . . Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Markets] Apple stock rises 3% as earnings, revenue top estimates Apple stock rises 3% as earnings, revenue top estimates Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Democrats] Dems then & now (Scott Johnson) If there is anything in the sordid impeachment saga that is laugh out loud funny, the video compiled for White House Counsel Pat Cipollone’s closing argument on behalf of President Trump in the Senate this afternoon might be it (below). In the video somebody seems to have opened the door of the Dem clown car — the car carrying the once and future Dem clowns — and sent them out Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[worldNews] China vows to beat 'devil' virus as countries rush to evacuate citizens President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that China was sure of defeating a "devil" coronavirus that has killed 106 people, but international alarm was rising as the outbreak spread across the world.
Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Markets] Could The Coronavirus Epidemic Be The Tipping Point In Supply Chain Leaving China? Could The Coronavirus Epidemic Be The Tipping Point In Supply Chain Leaving China?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects.

While the media naturally focuses on the immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic, the possible second-order effects receive little attention: first order, every action has a consequence. Second order, every consequence has its own consequence.

So the media's focus is the first-order consequences: the number of infected people and fatalities, government responses such as quarantines, and so on. The general expectation is these first-order consequences will dissipate shortly and life will return to its pre-epidemic status with virtually no significant changes.

Second-order effects caution: not so fast. Second-order consequences may play out for months or even years even if the epidemic ends as quickly as the consensus expects.

The under-appreciated dynamic here is the tipping point, the imprecise point at which a decision to make fundamental changes tips from "maybe" to "yes."

These tipping points are often influenced by exhaustion or frustration. Take a small business that's been hit with tax increases, additional fees, more regulatory compliance requirements, etc. When the next fee increase arrives, the onlooker might declare that the sum is relatively modest and the business owner can afford to pay it, but the onlooker is only considering first-order effects: the size of the fee and and the owner's ability to pay it.

To the surprise of the onlooker focusing only on first-order effects, the second-order effect is the owner closes the business and moves away. Invisible to everyone focusing solely on first-order effects, the owner's sense of powerlessness and weakening resolve to continue despite soaring costs and declining profits has slowly been moving up to a tipping point.

Beneath the surface, every new fee, every tax increase and every new regulation has pushed the owner closer to "I've had it, I'm out."

When the owner shuts the business, onlookers can't understand how one little extra fee could trigger such a fundamental change. The observer is only looking at the new fee as a single cause with a single consequence. In the real world, each new fee, tax increase and regulation was another link in a causal chain of consequences generating consequences.

Turning to the possible second-order effects of the epidemic in China, let's start with the decision to keep supply chains in China. The reasons to keep supply chains in China have been dwindling for years: wages and other costs have been rising, the central government has increased demands for technology sharing, the general sense that foreigners and foreign companies are no longer needed or wanted, and the trade war, which is more or less in a truce phase rather than over.

One common belief is that it's "impossible" to move supply chains out of China. This is a classic first-order effect analysis. When the supply chain gets disrupted for one reason or another and alternatives must be found, alternatives are found. What becomes "impossible" isn't moving the supply chain from China but keeping it in China.

The mistake made by those only considering first-order effects is that a modest effect "should" only generate modest consequences. For the observer focused solely on first-order effects, if the coronavirus epidemic blows over as expected, then supply chains "should" be unaffected because the effect is quantitatively modest.

But once we start considering cumulative second-order effects and potential tipping points, then the disruption of supply chains caused by the epidemic, no matter how modest, could be "the last straw" to those who had beneath the surface already shifted from "never leave China" to "maybe leave China." The epidemic could tip the decision process into "must leave China."

Consider two executives, one who looked at the longer term consequences of being dependent on production in China and began establishing alternative suppliers at the start of the trade war 18 months ago, and another exec who looked at the first-order hassles and expenses of moving out of China and stayed put to minimize short-term expenses.

Individual decisions add up to trend changes, and these charts reflect a trend change in globalization and China's share of global exports. Globalization and China's share of global exports have both plateaued and are now entering the stagnation / decline phase of the S-Curve.

Everyone expecting a quick resolution to the epidemic and a rapid return to pre-epidemic conditions would be well-served by looking beyond first-order effects and easy assumptions that the consequences of the epidemic will be near-zero.

Here are some informative science-based links on the coronavirus, courtesy of longtime correspondent Cheryl A.:

Another Decade, Another Coronavirus

New coronavirus can cause infections with no symptoms and sicken otherwise healthy people, studies show

Map of Global Case of Wuhan Coronavirus

Coronavirus contagious even in incubation stage, China’s health authority says

Preliminary Risk Assessment of Coronavirus Spreading

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

How fast can biotech come up with a vaccine for the latest outbreak?

DNA sleuths read the coronavirus genome, tracing its origins and looking for dangerous mutations

*  *  *

My recent books:

Audiobook edition now available:
Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World ($13)
(Kindle $6.95, print $11.95) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 (Kindle), $12 (print), $13.08 ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

*  *  *

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 16:55
Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Society] Leftist Values Are Causing Young Americans to Be Miserable

I began part one of “Why Are So Many Young People Unhappy?” with data showing the apparently unprecedentedly high rate of unhappiness among young people... Read More

The post Leftist Values Are Causing Young Americans to Be Miserable appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Apps] Product Hunt launches beta of YourStack, a home for your favorite things The team behind Product Hunt is launching a new social network called YourStack, a platform aiming to connect people that are passionate about products and help them discover what things their friends love. “It’s super simple, you just search through and create a stack of products you love.” Product Hunt founder Ryan Hoover tells TechCrunch. […] Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Markets] Dow closes higher to snap 5-day losing streak after worst single session loss since October U.S stocks close higher Tuesday, a day after worries about the impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak on global economic growth sparked the biggest one-day selloff since early October. Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Markets] NewsWatch: AMD stock slides as outlook falls below Wall Street view Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares declined in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker’s outlook fell below Wall Street estimates and data-center sales did not come in as well as expected.
Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[Uncategorized] Avenatti Allegedly Googled “Insider Trading” Before Attempts to Extort Nike Potential jurors booted from pool for trash talking Avenatti Published:1/28/2020 4:09:51 PM
[MSFT] Microsoft: It's Go Time Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[] BuzzFeed editor-in-chief Ben Smith makes the next logical career move and heads to the New York Times Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[] Accused Hanukkah stabber may not even stand trial Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Politics] Bloomberg Offers Support for Puerto Rico Statehood Puerto Rico should become the 51st state, according to Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg in an Orlando Sentinel opinion piece. Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Volokh Conspiracy] [Eugene Volokh] Sealed S.C. Real Estate Case Involving Mick Mulvaney (Acting White House Chief of Staff) Prof. Adam Levitin (Georgetown Law) has the story on his Credit Slips blog. There is some controversy about the underlying land deal, which the Washington Post covered last year; Prof. Levitin thinks Mulvaney's "move [was] allowed by the rules, but also totally in bad faith," but my UCLA colleague Prof. Lynn Lopucki disagrees, arguing that… Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Politics] Lindsey Graham predicts 51 votes to call Bidens, whistleblower, etc… Lindsey Graham spoke with the press today and predicted that he’ll have 51 votes to call both Joe and Hunter Biden, as well as the whistleblower as witnesses. Watch: Graham doesn’t agree . . . Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Society] Why These 8 Americans Attended the March for Life

Tens of thousands of men, women, and children from across the nation gathered in Washington to declare their belief in the sanctity of life and... Read More

The post Why These 8 Americans Attended the March for Life appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Media] Funniest New York Times Correction Ever? (John Hinderaker) It’s a contender, albeit from the society pages. From Friday’s New York Times, a correction to an article about a wedding: Correction: Jan. 24, 2020 In an earlier version of this article, the given name of the actress who introduced the couple was misspelled. She is Vaishnavi Sharma, not Vaishmavi. The given name of the wedding officiant was also misspelled. She is Gabra Zackman, not Dabra. Also, the author of Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Security] Essential advice for securing your small startup Jeff Bezos’ phone was hacked. And if the richest person in the world is vulnerable, chances are good that your startup could get hacked, too. The good news is that, as a tiny company, you’re not a big target. But as soon as you hire your first employee, it’s time to think about adopting basic […] Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[48997cdb-334e-58e4-828c-53d222b949d6] Miley Cyrus, Liam Hemsworth finalize divorce: report Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth are both officially single.  Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Markets] AMD stock falls 4% after light first-quarter outlook AMD stock falls 4% after light first-quarter outlook Published:1/28/2020 3:38:13 PM
[Entertainment] Kobe Bryant to Be Honored During the 2020 Oscars Ceremony Kobe Bryant Hollywood's biggest night will honor one of its very own stars. The 2020 Oscars are only a couple of weeks away, but that doesn't mean there isn't room to add something new to...
Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[Politics] McCarthy Breaks GOP Fundraising Record as Party Fights to Take Back The House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) broke the all-time House Republican fundraising record in 2019, significantly boosting his party's 2020 bid to take back control of the House of Representatives.

The post McCarthy Breaks GOP Fundraising Record as Party Fights to Take Back The House appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[Politics] DOJ accuses John Bolton of ‘grossly’ mischaracterizing Trump’s remarks The DOJ is accusing Bolton, via his book, of grossly mischaracterizing a discussion he had with AG Barr, suggesting it’s not even remotely correct: NY POST – The Justice Department is denying . . . Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[Markets] Demand For "Prepper Properties" Soars Amid "Concerns About Social Stability" Demand For "Prepper Properties" Soars Amid "Concerns About Social Stability"

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

In 2017 and 2018, most Americans were generally feeling pretty good about the future, and interest in “prepping” plummeted nationwide. 

But now things have changed. 

All of a sudden, demand for “prepper properties” is absolutely soaring, and this is driving up the prices of rural homes all over the nation.  In fact, in some of the hottest areas working class families have already been completely priced out of the market.  Meanwhile, luxury home prices in the heart of New York City have fallen to the lowest level in six years.  Many are deeply concerned about the upcoming election, and many others are alarmed by all the other crazy stuff happening all over the world, but whatever the motivation it is undeniable that an increasing number of Americans are seeking to flee the major cities right now.   There seems to be a growing consensus that our society is rapidly steamrolling toward a nightmare, and a lot of people are purchasing “prepper properties” while they still can.

I knew that conditions were shifting, but I was stunned when I saw that even Realtor.com had posted an article about this growing trend…

But today, Americans en masse are again preparing for the worst—and Communists are just about the only thing not on their list. What is? Terrorist attacks, a total economic collapse, perhaps even zombie invasions. Or maybe just a complete societal breakdown after this November’s scorched-Earth presidential election.

And Reuters just posted an article in which they discussed the fact that preppers have “boosted rural land values” in property markets all across the nation…

Whichever camp, realtors say the new dropouts are not “crackpots” and often include affluent professionals whose run for the hills has boosted rural land values and started to change their property market.

“I’ve had hedge-fund managers and billionaires that have made purchases, and they all have concerns about the direction of the economy and social stability,” said John E. Haynes, president of Retreat Realty in North Carolina.

That same Reuters article identified “Idaho, Montana and Wyoming” as three of the states with the hottest property markets.  It has gotten to the point where even some of the biggest celebrities in the country are very eager to grab a slice of rural life.  For example, Kanye West and Kim Kardashian just purchased a second extremely large ranch in Wyoming.

But mostly this trend is being driven by preppers, survivalists and those that want to own an “off-grid property”.  The following comes from a recent NPR article

Welcome to the world of sustainable, survivalist real estate. There’s a growing market for this kind of off-grid property. Mondale figures over the past six to eight years, sales of these survivalist properties have risen by 50 percent.

“It seems like over the past few years, there’s just this need, I don’t want to say panic or frantic, but people feeling the need to be able to have someplace to go,” Mondale says.

Real estate agent Theresa Mondale has been in this game for a very long time, and she has never seen the market as hot as it is right now.

In fact, some of the prepper properties that she has listed sell for more than a million dollars

Despite the remoteness of these homes, they’re not backwoods shacks with sagging metal roofs. Some of her listings sell for more than $1 million if there’s a lot of land and if water rights are included. The one with the helicopter pad is a spiffy, two-story log home with a wraparound porch. It has solar panels and inside, a backup generator, luxury bathrooms and a kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.

Over in Idaho, real estate agent Todd Savage has also noticed a huge surge in interest in prepper properties.  He told Realtor.com that his sales are up 50 percent compared to a year ago…

For example, sales at American Redoubt Realty, a real estate firm nestled in the heart of prepper country in northern Idaho, are up 50% over the same time last year, says real estate agent Todd Savage, who specializes in such transactions. His clients typically hail from Texas and California.

As we approach the 2020 election, demand is going to continue to surge, and prices are only going to go higher.

And if great chaos breaks out during the aftermath of the election, that will drive prices into the stratosphere.

We live at a time when our nation is very deeply divided, but at the same time people from all walks of life are extremely concerned about where our society is heading.

In the event that things really start to fall apart, people want their families to be safe, and safety is not going to be found in the major cities.

Of course some developers are taking things to the extreme.  For example, one developer has actually transformed a former nuclear missile silo in Kansas into what he is calling “survival condos”

Larry Hall is the brainchild behind such luxury developments which he refers to as ‘Survival Condos’. The project is a luxury complex housed 15 stories below ground in a former missile silo near Concordia, Kansas.

The missile silos were originally built by the US Army Corps of Engineers in the 1960s during the Cold War for the Atlas F missile, and there were 72 of them around the country.

Being stuck in a highly publicized hole in the ground when society starts to collapse may not be the best tactical situation, but apparently there is a lot of demand for these condos.

In fact, the price for a penthouse unit is a cool 4.5 million dollars

A full-floor apartment, spanning 1,800 square feet, will cost buyers $3million, while a 900-square-foot, half-floor unit is $1.5million. The ultra-wealthy can also make a penthouse selection starting at $4.5million.

Needless to say, only the ultra-wealthy can afford such extravagant accommodations.

But everyone should be preparing in their own way.

The relative stability that we had been enjoying has now given way to a time of great uncertainty.  Economic conditions are deteriorating, global weather patterns are going completely nuts, war could break out in the Middle East at any time, civil unrest is on the rise all over the globe, a mysterious coronavirus is spreading very rapidly in Asia, our planet is becoming increasingly unstable, and the 2020 election looks like it could be a flashpoint for all the anger that has been boiling just under the surface in our nation for many years.

If you want to grab a prepper property, now is the time to do so, because time is running out and things are about to start getting really crazy out there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 16:25
Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[worldNews] U.S. military recovers remains from Afghanistan plane crash The United States on Tuesday recovered the remains of two personnel from a U.S. military aircraft that crashed in Afghanistan, American and Afghan officials told Reuters.
Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[Markets] The Margin: ‘You gotta be sh***ing me?’ Air Force veteran falls to the ground when he’s told the mouth-watering value of his watch This U.S. Air Force vet, who was stationed in Thailand in the early 1970s, has probably seen a lot over his lifetime, but he clearly didn’t see this coming.
Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[] David Hogg: The "Gun Violence Prevention Movement" Was Started "Centuries Ago" by "Almost Entirely Black, Brown, and Indigenous LGBTQ Women and Non Binary People That Never Got On the News or In Most History Books" This might just be the most SJW sentence ever constructed.... Published:1/28/2020 3:38:12 PM
[] Reports: Trump, McConnell each increasingly resigned to Senate calling witnesses Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[World] Why D.C. sniper Lee Boyd Malvo should never be eligible for parole

Senate Bill 103 just passed the Virginia Senate without much attention from the public on a vote of 29-10. Now the proposal heads to the House of Delegates and every Virginian should know what it does and try to stop it from becoming law.

Lawmakers claim it is about fairness ... Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM

[International] Trump Offers Middle East Peace Deal: ‘We Have an Obligation to Humanity to Get It Done’

President Donald Trump, rolling out a Middle East peace plan Tuesday, acknowledged that other presidents since the 1960s have tried and failed to reach a... Read More

The post Trump Offers Middle East Peace Deal: ‘We Have an Obligation to Humanity to Get It Done’ appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Politics] 'I believe John Bolton,' former Trump Chief of Staff John Kelly reportedly says

"If John Bolton says that in the book I believe John Bolton," Kelly reportedly said at a lecture in Sarasota, Fla. "Every single time I was with him ... he always gave the president the unvarnished truth."

Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Entertainment] Kylie Jenner Shares Intimate Details on Stormi's Birth Ahead of Her 2nd Birthday Kylie Jenner, Stormi WebsterStormi Webster is almost 2 years old, and no one is more disbelief than Kylie Jenner. The little one is celebrating her second birthday on Feb. 1, and her mama is launching the Kylie...
Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Issues] NYT Columnist Fails to Disclose Husband’s Work for Warren in Attack on Sanders

New York Times columnist Michelle Goldberg failed to disclose in her Monday column criticizing Bernie Sanders that her husband is a high-paid consultant for campaign rival Elizabeth Warren.

The post NYT Columnist Fails to Disclose Husband’s Work for Warren in Attack on Sanders appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Right Column] Imagine A World Without Oil

"Were it not for the hydrocarbon-fueled industrial and agricultural revolutions, you and I, along with all the whales that provided blubber oil for lamps, wouldn’t likely be around today.But since we are already here, what if that petroleum and coal we in America and the rest of the world now depend upon for about 80% of our energy were, for whatever unfathomable reason, to be taken away?"

"Until some entirely revolutionary new source is discovered, humankind has yet to invent anything so remarkable as oil and natural gas in terms of combined energy density, efficiency, portability, reliability, and yes, environmental responsibility too."

Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Politics] Lindsey Graham predicts 51 votes to call Bidens, whistleblower, etc… Lindsey Graham spoke with the press today and predicted that he’ll have 51 votes to call both Joe and Hunter Biden, as well as the whistleblower as witnesses. Watch: Graham doesn’t agree . . . Published:1/28/2020 3:07:31 PM
[Markets] Stocks Soar To Best Day In 4 Months As "Devil"-Virus Death-Count Spikes Stocks Soar To Best Day In 4 Months As "Devil"-Virus Death-Count Spikes

The death toll in China has soared past 100 while the number of confirmed cases doubled overnight. Health officials around the world have confirmed more than 4,500 cases, more than triple the number from Friday.

And domestically, while 'soft' data improved - headline consumer confidence ticked up and Richmond Fed saw its 2nd biggest rebound in its 27 year history, 'hard' data collapsed as Durable Goods orders were a disaster...

All of which explains (not in any way whatsoever) why the S&P surged to its best day since October 4th (filling the gap from Friday's lows)... We saw a similar "all clear" reaction last week - let's see how this ends...

There was some chatter that headlines about a vaccine being produced in Hong Kong were the catalyst - who knows, anything is possible in this machine-driven malarkey - but one thing is for sure, waiting at least four months for any vaccine will not stop a collapse in global supply chains if this virus continues to spread like it is.

With China cash markets still closed, A50 Futures stabilized (near 6-month lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

European markets soared today led by a 2.5% spike in Italian stocks, erasing all of yesterday's losses...

Source: Bloomberg

All US Majors were notably higher today, but none managed to erase yesterday's losses (Small Caps got closest)... (NOTE - most of the gains today were once again at the opening ramp, then markets traded sideways after EU closed)...stocks closed on the weak side...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, all this was accompanied by a major short-squeeze...

Source: Bloomberg

Big rebound in cyclicals today, but defensives remain the winners on the week..

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets rebounded massively today - after a record outflow...

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields rose in line with stocks today but remain notably decoupled...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields jumped higher today (up 3-4bps across the curve) along with stocks, but remain notably lower on the week still...

Source: Bloomberg

30Y traded to as low as a 2.02% yield today before bouncing higher...

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar roundtripped from overnight gains to close marginally lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked up to almost $9200...

Source: Bloomberg

Copper slipped again today but it was silver (slammed) and oil (gained) that stood out...

Source: Bloomberg

Silver was clubbed like baby seal back to 5-week lows (even as gold only drifted modestly lower)...

WTI lifted back near $54 handle but could noit quite fill the gap from Friday...

 

Finally, Dr.Copper's historic 10-day decline suggests some major ugly surprises for the Chinese economy are on their way...

Source: Bloomberg

And while it's ridocnculous, we note that today's bounce continues to perfectly fit with the Fed's Y2K liquidity surge analog...

Source: Bloomberg

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 16:00
Published:1/28/2020 3:07:30 PM
[Privacy] A Christian-friendly payments processor spilled 6 million transaction records online A little-known payments processor, which bills itself as a Christian-friendly company that does “not process credit card transactions for morally objectionable businesses,” left a database containing years’ worth of customer payment transactions online. The database contained 6.7 million records since 2013, and was updating by the day. But the database was not protected with a […] Published:1/28/2020 3:07:30 PM
[Quick Takes] Charles Murray Returning to Middlebury College at Invitation of College Republicans "We believe that the way the administration and the protestors handled the 2017 event was a stain on Middlebury’s reputation" Published:1/28/2020 3:07:30 PM
[Markets] U.S. stocks end higher, rebounding from biggest selloff since October U.S. stocks end higher, rebounding from biggest selloff since October Published:1/28/2020 3:07:30 PM
[Politics] Today's hot topics on #TEMS: Impeachment persuasion, red-state invasion, Bolton abrasion, Middle East equation, and more! Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Politics] Van Drew: Time to 'Move on' From Trump's Impeachment The "long, long testimony" from House impeachment managers was "pretty painful," according to Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., who called out against using impeachment as a tool that is political. Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Entertainment] Riverdale's Next Musical Is Hedwig and the Angry Inch Hedwig the Angry Inch Broadway Musical, KJ Apa, Michael C. Hall, Tim Mislock, Peter Yanowitz, Lena Hall, Matt Duncan, Justin CraigFrom the people that brought you Carrie and Heathers, comes Riverdale's next musical episode: Hedwig and the Angry Inch. Yes, you read that right. After the previous musical debacles,...
Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[d6cc37a8-1a04-5331-a5ef-0fc0093b0507] Dan Gainor: CNN panel mocks Trump supporters – Anchor who whines about 'toxicity' delivers just that Three years into President Donald Trump’s first term and the news media still don’t understand how we got here. Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Politics] Buttigieg Hits Sanders: ‘I Don’t Measure Boldness of an Idea By … How Much Controversy It Generates’

Presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on Tuesday responded to a voter's question about Bernie Sanders's campaign attacking other Democratic candidates, saying he does not measure the boldness of a campaign by how controversial its ideas are. "Here’s my message to progressives, it's that I would be the most progressive president we’ve had in a half-century. It’s ...

The post Buttigieg Hits Sanders: ‘I Don’t Measure Boldness of an Idea By … How Much Controversy It Generates’ appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[worldNews] West Libyan forces claim downed drone as Turkish support arrives Forces aligned with Libya's Tripoli-based government said on Tuesday they had shot down a drone operated by their rivals, suggesting a strengthening of air defenses as they receive accelerated military support from Turkey.
Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Society] How My Fight for Student-Led Prayer Took Me to the White House

How does a young man find himself standing behind the president of the United States in the Oval Office of the White House? I invited... Read More

The post How My Fight for Student-Led Prayer Took Me to the White House appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[7b8a72cb-61a5-5b41-9c91-a18d04516b8f] Puppy Bowl 2020: Where to watch and what to know While sports fans far and wide gear up for the 2020 Super Bowl, animal lovers are just as excited to tune into the 16th annual Puppy Bowl on Animal Planet.  Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Markets] "Smart Money"? - Hollywood Celebs And Sports Icons Got Crushed In Mattress-Maker Casper "Smart Money"? - Hollywood Celebs And Sports Icons Got Crushed In Mattress-Maker Casper

"Smart money" investors, such as some Hollywood actors and sports icons, are linked up with top VC firms and investment banks, have been stung by the VC bubble of overinflated unicorns that see a valuation collapse right before IPO. 

Think WeWork, and what happened to the office-sharing space company last fall, it's valuation plunged as it attempted to IPO. The company then ran out of money and was bailed out by its largest shareholder, SoftBank. 

Leonardo DiCaprio and rapper 50 Cent have been the latest "smart money" investors to feel the pain of plunging valuations, after their investments in Casper Sleep Inc., an online mattress retailer, saw valuations fall as it attempts to IPO. 

Reuters notes that the unicorn mattress company will issue 9.6 million shares between the $17 to $19 level, which is at the top part of the range, giving the company $182.4 million in IPO proceeds. Such a level would also give the company a $768 million valuation, or about a -23% drop in book value from its latest funding round. 

In 1Q19, the money-losing company was valued at $1.1 billion, which is a -30% decline in today's valuation versus what was seen early last year. 

We noted since WeWork imploded last fall, investors' risk appetite for money-losing companies has collapsed. This has also marked the top of not just the VC bubble, but also the IPO bubble

"Valuations in the private market are currently under the microscope, especially with unicorns, as they attempt to tap the public markets," said Jeff Zell, a senior research analyst at IPO Boutique.

"The biggest hurdle that Casper Sleep is going to have during the roadshow process is proving to investors a viable path to profitability while competing in a highly competitive industry," Zell said. 

Even "smart money" in Hollywood is feeling the pressure as the bubble of everything deflates. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 15:35
Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[Markets] Outside the Box: Avoid these 3 estate-planning mistakes and make probate cheaper and easier for your loved ones At the very least, fill out simple forms to make sure your bank accounts and investments immediately go to your heirs
Published:1/28/2020 2:38:38 PM
[] Harvard professor arrested for failing to disclose $50,000 per month he received from China Published:1/28/2020 2:07:48 PM
[Politics] Van Hollen: Senators Can't Claim to Seek Truth, Reject Bolton Any senator claiming to be seeking the truth during the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump should be open to the idea of calling former national security adviser John Bolton and acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney to testify, Sen. Chris Van Hollen said Tuesday.  Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[World] Steering the criminal justice system toward rehabilitation using First Step Act

Written following his return from 10 years in Siberian exile, Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment” follows the story of Rodion Raskolnikov as he grapples with mental anguish after killing a pawnbroker. Dostoevksy struggles with many ethical dilemmas that plague criminal justice, including deep questions about the efficacy of imprisonment and the ... Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM

[Entertainment] Memoir by Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa coming out in May Sen. Joni Ernst has a memoir coming out in May Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Entertainment] Scoop x Walmart's New Styles Have Us Ready for Spring E-Comm: Scoops, WalmartWe love these products, and we hope you do too. E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a small share of the revenue from your purchases. Items are sold by the retailer, not...
Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Markets] Millennial investors like this 1 stock even more than Amazon and Tesla Millennial investors like this 1 stock even more than Amazon and Tesla Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Politics] Warren Endorses Prosecutor Who Dropped Charges Against Jussie Smollett For Fabricating Hate Crime

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) endorsed the reelection of the Illinois state attorney under investigation for her handling of former Empire actor Jussie Smollett's hate crime hoax.

The post Warren Endorses Prosecutor Who Dropped Charges Against Jussie Smollett For Fabricating Hate Crime appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[worldNews] In peace bid, Trump proposes Palestinian state with capital in eastern Jerusalem U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday proposed the creation of a Palestinian state with a capital in eastern Jerusalem, in an effort to achieve a peace breakthrough with Israel that will be a tough sell for Palestinians.
Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Markets] Trump lawyer: Don’t let report on Bolton book dictate next step in impeachment trial As President Donald Trump’s attorneys on Tuesday launch into their third and final day of opening arguments in his Senate impeachment trial, they promised to wrap up before dinner. Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Artificial Intelligence] Modified HoloLens helps teach kids with vision impairment to navigate the social world Growing up with blindness or low vision can be difficult for kids, not just because they can’t read the same books or play the same games as their sighted peers; Vision is also a big part of social interaction and conversation. This Microsoft research project uses augmented reality to help kids with vision impairment “see” […] Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Uncategorized] Report: FBI Reviewing Claims Ilhan Omar Married Her Brother "Conviction for marriage fraud could result in a $250,000 fine, along with five years in prison." Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[Markets] Powerful 7.7 Earthquake Hits Between Cuba And Jamaica, Tsunami Possible Powerful 7.7 Earthquake Hits Between Cuba And Jamaica, Tsunami Possible

A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake has been detected between Jamaica and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, reported the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

A tsunami warning has been issued for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and Cuba.

Beachgoers in Jamaica have tweeted footage of the earthquake, but there are no reports of a tsunami or damage at the moment.

Developing...  

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 15:01
Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[World] E-commerce surge sparks questions about reliability of same-store sales metric Experts say there should be a discussion about metrics besides same-store sales now that so much shopping is done online.
Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[] Supreme Court Knocks Down Hawaiian Judge's Injunction Against Trump's "Public Charge" Rule Change;Neil Gorsuch Slams Penny-Ante District Judges for Issuing Nationwide Injunctions, Legislating from the Bench The"public charge" rule says that immigrants cannot be granted green cards unless they can show that they are self-sufficient and would not become public charges -- that is, dependents on the public fisc. The old rule only looked at a... Published:1/28/2020 2:07:47 PM
[] Restaurants complaining about Grubhub, etc. are missing the mark Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Politics] Jerry Falwell Jr.: Right to Have Supported Trump's Campaign Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. said Tuesday he was right to endorse President Donald Trump's first campaign, and that even many of those who were against Trump in 2016 are on board with him now because he's done all he said he would do.  Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Politics] Trump team wraps impeachment defense with an elephant in the Senate: John Bolton

President Trump's lawyers closed his defense on Tuesday, largely ignoring the elephant in the room: John Bolton, and whether the former national security advisor will testify.

Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Hardware] Smartphone sales expected to get a slight bump in 2020 Last year saw global smartphone sales decline for the first time since analysts started tracking such things. In Gartner’s case, that comprises a full 11 years, as figures dropped 2% for 2019. Following on last week’s global device forecast, the firm is drilling down on smartphone figures with some slightly rosier results. According to the […] Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Markets] The U.S. national debt is projected to rise to $31.4 trillion by 2030, CBO says The U.S. national debt is projected to rise to $31.4 trillion by 2030, CBO says Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Entertainment] Joe Giudice Spotted Partying With Women in Mexico After Teresa Giudice Split Joe GiudiceJoe Giudice appears single and totally ready to mingle! Before the month came to a close, the Real Housewives of New Jersey star headed to Mexico where he was spotted mingling with a few...
Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[worldNews] U.S. backs program to help Venezuelan migrants settle in Brazil The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.N. International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched a program on Tuesday to help tens of thousands of Venezuelan migrants settle for the long-term in Brazil.
Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[Issues] Steyer Slams Private Education, Sent Kids to Pricey Prep School

2020 contender Tom Steyer has sung the praises of public schools and opposes spending tax dollars on private ones, even though records show he paid for a $50,000-a-year education for his children.

The post Steyer Slams Private Education, Sent Kids to Pricey Prep School appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 1:38:10 PM
[2e2017c9-7a2e-51be-bd11-51879e7e87e5] Michael Strahan talks tension with former co-host Kelly Ripa: 'I didn't know I was supposed to be a sidekick' It's been nearly four years since Michael Strahan reportedly blindsided Kelly Ripa by abruptly exiting "Live! With Kelly and Michael" to accept a hosting gig at "Good Morning America."  Published:1/28/2020 1:38:09 PM
[World] Why Julianne Hough and Brooks Laich Have a Romance Worth Fighting For Julianne Hough, Brooks LaichIn a season of fresh starts and big changes, Brooks Laich seems to have adopted a new raison d'être. Some three weeks after others shared their resolutions for 2020, the retired...
Published:1/28/2020 1:38:09 PM
[Markets] Key Words: ‘I believe John Bolton,’ says Trump’s former Chief of Staff Kelly President Donald Trump’s former White House chief of staff sided with John Bolton in comments late Monday when asked about the ex-national security adviser’s claim that Trump told him he wanted to tie Ukraine aid to an investigation of the Bidens.
Published:1/28/2020 1:38:09 PM
[] Hillary Clinton 'certainly [feels] the urge' to run against Donald Trump in 2020 because it was totally 'odd' that she lost in 2016 [video] Published:1/28/2020 1:07:02 PM
[Markets] The Dow is up more than 200 points, recouping about half its big Monday loss The Dow is up more than 200 points, recouping about half its big Monday loss Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[2bdc072c-7be5-5b09-836b-bd05ba4fc590] Jessica Simpson admits she always had alcohol cup 'filled to the rim' with her before sobriety Jessica Simpson is sharing even more details about her alcoholism in a no-holds-barred interview with Hoda Kotb. Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Markets] Revealed: Trump Releases 'Deal Of The Century' Map Of Future "Palestinian State" Watch Live: Trump Unveils 'Deal Of The Century' Mideast Peace Plan With Netanyahu

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be delivering joint remarks from the White House, scheduled for noon EST on Tuesday. 

TRUMP PEACE PLAN CALLS FOR 2 STATES, ISRAEL AND PALESTINE: AP

Trump:

  • "I was not elected to do small things or shy away from big problems"
  • "This vision for peace is fundamentally different from past proposals"
  • 80 pages are the “most detailed proposal every put forward by far”
  • Trump touted his experience as a “Deal-maker” and that what’s being proposed is a win-win “two-state solution”
  • Both Netanyahu and Gantz willing to endorse vision as basis for direct negotiations with Palestinians. A joint US-Israeli committee will work on implementing conceptual map.
  • US will work toward recognizing contiguous territory within the Palestinian state “when conditions for statehood are met”
  • “Jerusalem will remain Israel’s undivided capital”... “But that’s no big deal because I’ve already done that for you…”
  • “We will not allow a return to… relentless bloodshed… we will never allow Israel to compromise its security.”
  • “I want this deal to be a great deal for the Palestinians. After 70 years this could be the last opportunity” for Palestinians to have their own state.
  • Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem proposed in future where the US "will proudly open a US Embassy"...
  • No Israelis or Palestinians will be displaced from their homes. Palestinians' GDP will triple over next decade if peace plan conditions implemented.

Yesterday the president met with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White party rival Benny Gantz separately at the White House. Both have briefly paused campaigning ahead of Israel's March 2 elections.

Trump had sought to assure the press that the Palestinians would "ultimately" come around to giving their support, though statements of Palestinian leadership have made this highly doubtful.

"I think it might have a chance," he said Monday. Trump touted that both Netanyahu and Gantz "like very much" what they've heard of the plan thus far. President Trump described the plan has having been "many, many years in the making"

The administrations last big move, albeit deeply controversial, was to relocate the US Embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in recognition of it as the official Israeli capital in 2018.

Netanyahu's arrival at the White House yesterday, via Washington Post.

"We'll see what happens," Trump said. "We have something that makes a lot of sense for everybody," the president added after describing that most people think of the prospect for Israeli-Palestinian peace as something impossible. 

Despite Trump's measured optimism, Palestinian Authority leaders as well as Hamas have previously repeatedly said the plan would be dead on arrival.

For its part the Palestinian side has not been invited to Washington, and even threatened over the weekend to withdraw from key provisions of the 1993 Oslo Accords. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 12:05
Tags
Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[0212d5f2-9019-54ef-afc5-87e67b561d56] Mike Kerrigan: Florida's falling iguanas- Iguana know the truth It was unseasonably cold in South Florida this past week, leading iguanas to fall from the trees. Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Markets] BorgWarner Is Buying Delphi. Why the Market Is Unhappy. Automotive supplier BorgWarner shocked investors Tuesday, announcing a deal to buy Delphi Technologies. The deal looks like a bet on fossil fueled vehicles—and Borg investors don’t appear happy. Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Security] Nancy Pelosi Says House Democrats Will Vote to Block Trump’s Travel Ban

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that House Democrats will soon introduce legislation that aims to block President Donald Trump’s ban on several countries. Pelosi revealed... Read More

The post Nancy Pelosi Says House Democrats Will Vote to Block Trump’s Travel Ban appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Markets] 3M sees coronavirus boosting demand for face masks, as China projected to return to growth 3M Co. Chief Executive Mike Roman said Tuesday that his view of weakness in the China business is “changing” because of the coronavirus, as the outbreak of the deadly virus has boosted demand for face masks, but stock falls on subpoena related to PFAS discharges.
Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Entertainment] The 10 books to read in February You’ve already broken your resolution to read more in 2020? It’s not too late to turn things around. Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Issues] Ossoff: We Need to Beat Trump Backers So Badly They Can’t Show Their Faces in Public

Georgia Senate candidate Jon Ossoff (D.) told a crowd earlier this month that Democrats needed to defeat President Donald Trump's backers so lopsidedly that they wouldn't be able to show their faces in public.

The post Ossoff: We Need to Beat Trump Backers So Badly They Can’t Show Their Faces in Public appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Startups] Free Agency wants to give every tech worker a career and salary boost Labor markets, particularly those in the tech industry, are incredibly lopsided against employees. Companies screen, interview, and negotiate with thousands of candidates per year, while employees may only go through recruiting a handful of times in their lives. Inevitably, they can select the wrong positions, pick the wrong managers to work with, and end up […] Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[Quick Takes] Feminist Prof Accused of Transphobia Needs Bodyguards Due to Threats “You can’t help but worry. It’s had a huge impact on me." Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[World] U.S. national debt projected to rise to $31.4 trillion by 2030: CBO The U.S. federal debt held by the public is expected to rise to $31.4 trillion by the end of 2030, the Congressional Budget Office said in its semi-annual forecast released Tuesday.
Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[] Air Force Veteran Finds Out the Rolex He Bought for $346 In 1974 Is Worth More Now The watch is uncommonly well-preserved, because he bought it and then just stuck it in a safe deposit box for 45 years. So it's worth a few bucks. If you don't want to watch the whole thing, you can skip... Published:1/28/2020 1:07:01 PM
[] Chait: Nominating Sanders would be an 'act of insanity' Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[] 'Singularity has been achieved': Rick Wilson and Wajahat Ali get some much-needed credibility boosts from Ilhan Omar Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Politics] Klobuchar: Bloomberg Should Participate in Primary Debates Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg should participate in the Democratic Party’s primary debates so that the public has a chance to see him argue his viewpoint, presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Tuesday. Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Politics] SHE CAN’T WIN: Early State Dems Prefer White Male Billionaire to Warren in New Poll

We'll probably never know exactly what Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) told Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) during their private meeting in 2018. She says he told her a woman couldn't win the presidency. He says otherwise. Either way, it's becoming increasingly evident that at least one woman—Liz Warren—cannot win in 2020.

The post SHE CAN’T WIN: Early State Dems Prefer White Male Billionaire to Warren in New Poll appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Entertainment] The top 10 audiobooks on Audible The top 10 audiobooks on Audible Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Advertising Tech] Daily Crunch: Facebook expands privacy options The Daily Crunch is TechCrunch’s roundup of our biggest and most important stories. If you’d like to get this delivered to your inbox every day at around 9am Pacific, you can subscribe here. 1. All users can now access Facebook’s tool for controlling which apps and sites can share data for ad-targeting Facebook is making […] Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[worldNews] U.S. recovers remains from Afghanistan plane crash, verifying identities: officials The United States on Tuesday recovered the remains of individuals from a U.S. military aircraft that crashed in Afghanistan and was in the process of confirming their identities, U.S. and Afghan officials told Reuters on Tuesday.
Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Markets] Coronavirus update: Vaccine stocks fall and 20 U.S. airports add screening Coronavirus update: Vaccine stocks fall and 20 U.S. airports add screening Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[2d404655-9a8a-5fb4-82d5-53b9ebb7ea13] Justin Bieber admits he questioned if he could 'be faithful' to Hailey Baldwin before marriage proposal Justin Bieber is opening up about the thoughts that ran through his head before he popped the question to Hailey Baldwin. Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Entertainment] Khloé Kardashian Urges Fans to Love Harder and "Dream Deeper" After Kobe Bryant's Death Khloe Kardashian, Kobe BryantFollowing the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, Gianna "GiGi" Bryant and the seven other people lost in the fatal helicopter crash on Sunday morning, Khloé Kardashian is reminding her fans...
Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Politics] T-C-I is a Massive T-A-X that Would Crush Pennsylvania Families Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Markets] Market Snapshot: Dow rebounds after biggest one-day loss since October U.S stocks recovered some ground Tuesday, a day after worries about the impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak on global economic growth sparked the biggest one-day selloff since early October.
Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Markets] S&P 500 Having Its Best Day Of New Year As Dow Flashes A Positive Signal Stock indexes were near session highs Tuesday as the market continued to bounce back from two days of selling. The S&P; 500 today climbed 1% for its best gain of 2020 so far. Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[Markets] "I Believe John Bolton" Says John Kelly In Support Of Fellow Failed Trump-Handler "I Believe John Bolton" Says John Kelly In Support Of Fellow Failed Trump-Handler

Former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly has given a rubber-stamp endorsement to John Bolton's new book-claim that President Trump tied military aid for Ukraine to his demands to investigate the Bidens.

"If John Bolton says that in the book I believe John Bolton," said Kelly, adding "John’s an honest guy. He’s a man of integrity and great character, so we’ll see what happens."

Kelly also endorsed Democratic calls to subpoena witnesses in President Trump's impeachment trial, which would of course mean a Bolton testimony, adding that "the majority of Americans would like to hear the whole story."

Of course, in 2008 then-President George W. Bush blasted Bolton, reportedly telling a group of journalists: "Let me just say from the outset that I don’t consider Bolton credible." (via The Federalist)

Bolton was one of the primary proponents of the claim that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, requiring a ground invasion and regime change by U.S. troops. “We are confident that Saddam Hussein has hidden weapons of mass destruction and production facilities in Iraq,” Bolton said in 2002.

Even after those claims were debunked and the promised weapons of mass destruction were never found, he remained a steadfast supporter of the Iraq War, claiming it couldn’t be proved that the ensuing chaos was caused by the decision to remove Hussein from power.

According to New York Times reporter Peter Baker, Bush told the assembled writers he did not think his hire of Bolton had been worth it in the end.

I spent political capital for him,” Bush reportedly said, complaining he got little in return. -The Federalist

So - two Presidents say Bolton was a terrible pick, but John Kelly - who did nothing but talk shit about Trump to his aides, loves the guy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 13:36
Published:1/28/2020 12:39:54 PM
[] Don Lemon's mad love for Rick Wilson and Wajahat Ali's joint CNN Trump-voter-bashing sesh inspires tweeter's pitch-perfect mashup of his 'two moods' [video] Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Politics] Trump Plan Calls for Palestinian State, Settlement Freeze President Donald Trump unveiled his long-awaited Middle East peace plan Tuesday, calling for the creation of a State of Palestine with its capital in portions of east Jerusalem, saying it is a "win-win" opportunity for Israel and the Palestinians. Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Entertainment] Today's Best Sales: Alternative Apparel, Bloomingdale's, Michael Stars & More Winter Shopping Sales, Stock ImageWe love these products, and we hope you do too. E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a small share of the revenue from your purchases. Items are sold by the retailer, not E!. We...
Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[7cc7b69a-96e1-53f6-b360-2a618967a1ed] Meghan Markle's sister says she failed to 'fix' family issues, racism not to blame for public backlash Meghan Markle's estranged half-sister is revealing the real reason she believes the public has had enough with the Duchess of Sussex and Prince Harry. Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Politics] WATCH LIVE: White House continues opening arguments in Senate impeachment trial at 1pm The White House will continue their opening arguments in defense of President Trump in the Senate impeachment trial. You can watch below on the live stream of your choice: C-SPAN:   FOX . . . Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Politics] WATCH LIVE: White House continues opening arguments in Senate impeachment trial at 1pm The White House will continue their opening arguments in defense of President Trump in the Senate impeachment trial. You can watch below on the live stream of your choice: C-SPAN:   FOX . . . Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Entertainment] Artist, 84, dies after being hit by car in northern Virginia An artist known for work depicting his native Bolivia has died after being struck by a car in northern Virginia Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Markets] Trump’s impeachment: Romney signals vote for witnesses may have a chance, other Republicans just want Bolton’s book As the Senate prepares to vote this week on whether to subpoena new witnesses or documents in President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, Mitt Romney and other senators are adding to expectations that the vote might have a chance. Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Markets] Hong Kong Researchers Have Developed A Coronavirus Vaccine, There Is Just One Catch Hong Kong Researchers Have Developed A Coronavirus Vaccine, There Is Just One Catch

With scientists from around the world scrambling to be the first to market with a vaccine for the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, Hong Kong researchers said today they have already developed a vaccine for the deadly Wuhan diseases, although there is a catch: the vaccine will not be commercially available for months, if not a year, as it would "take months" to test the vaccine on animals and at least another year to conduct clinical trials on humans before it was fit for use.

That's a problem, because at the current exponential rate of propagation, the virus may have infected several billion people by then.

According to SCMP, as scientists in mainland China and the United States were racing to produce a vaccine for the new coronavirus, infectious diseases expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, revealed that his team was working on the vaccine and had isolated the previously unknown virus from the city’s first imported case.

“We have already produced the vaccine, but it will take a long time to test on animals," Yuen said, without giving a specific time frame on when it would be ready for patients.

Professor Yuen Kwok-yung did not give a time frame on when the vaccine would be ready. Photo: SCMP

Meanwhile, with the virus having already mutated once becoming "more easily spreadable" among humans according to Chinese officials, by the time the virus is finally tested, the prevalent phenotype will likely be vastly different from the one the HK researcher is currently operating on.

How did the HK team come up with such a quick vaccine? HKU researchers based it on a nasal spray influenza vaccine previously invented by Yuen’s team. Researchers modified the flu vaccine with part of the surface antigen of the coronavirus, meaning it could prevent influenza viruses as well as the new coronavirus, which causes pneumonia.

Could Yuen's team be just a tad optimistic about the relevance of their product? Most likely: on Monday Chinese mainland media quoted Chinese infectious diseases expert Li Lanjuan who said saying a vaccine targeting the coronavirus was only now being developed and could be made in around a month at the earliest; testing would then lead to further months of delays.

“If the vaccine appears effective and safe in a number of animal species, it will go into clinical trials on humans. This takes at least one year even if expedited,” Yuen said, adding that the approach taken by the mainland side to develop a vaccine would lead to a major complication, in which people who were vaccinated might develop a more severe disease if exposed to the virus. He said such a reaction for coronavirus had been recorded in reports.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses causing illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). Meanwhile, Xinhua reported that Shanghai East Hospital of Tongji University had urgently approved a project for the development of a vaccine targeting the novel virus.

The vaccine would be co-developed by the hospital and Stemirna Therapeutics, a Shanghai-based biotechnology company. Company CEO Li Hangwen said no more than 40 days would be needed to manufacture vaccine samples, which would then be sent for tests and brought to clinics "as soon as possible." Here's the problem: assuming the number of infected people continues to roughly double every day...  well, we leave it to readers to calculate how many will be sick in over a month if we start with today's 4,500 infected baseline.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 12:55
Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Middle Column] Democrats pressure Google to censor climate skeptics on YouTube – Demands YouTube stop the spread of ‘dangerous climate misinformation’
Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Markets] The Technical Indicator: Charting near-term technical damage, S&P 500 ventures under key support Technically speaking, the S&P 500 has pulled in sharply from recent record highs, pressured amid the most aggressive selling pressure since October, writes Michael Ashbaugh.
Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Startups] Just released: Last round of tickets to 3rd Annual Winter Party at Galvanize If parties came with an alert system, this post would qualify as Def Con 4. Now hear this — we just released the final batch of tickets to our 3rd Annual Winter Party at Galvanize, which heats up on February 7 in San Francisco. If you want to be there with more than 1,000 of Silicon […] Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Uncategorized] LIVE: Final Day of Opening Arguments for Trump’s Impeachment Team Today should be a quick day. Published:1/28/2020 12:09:23 PM
[Political Cartoons] Holy Impeachment – A.F. Branco Cartoon

By A.F. Branco -

President Trump’s Legal team has eviscerated the House managers’ case for impeachment using facts and constitutional law. Political cartoon by A.F. Branco ©2020. See more Branco toons HERE

Holy Impeachment – A.F. Branco Cartoon is original content from Conservative Daily News - Where Americans go for news, current events and commentary they can trust - Conservative News Website for U.S. News, Political Cartoons and more.

Published:1/28/2020 12:09:22 PM
[World] Passing the Coal Hat at the Church of Greta Thunberg

Elites say a fossil fuel tax would save the world. It would only make poor American poorer.

The post Passing the Coal Hat at the Church of Greta Thunberg appeared first on The American Conservative.

Published:1/28/2020 12:09:22 PM
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[Funding] Securiti.ai scores $50M Series B to modernize data governance Securiti.ai, a San Jose startup, is working to bring a modern twist to data governance and security. Today the company announced a $50 million Series B led by General Catalyst with participation from Mayfield. The company, which only launched in 2019, reports it has already raised $81 million. What is attracting all of this investment […] Published:1/28/2020 11:39:48 AM
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Published:1/28/2020 11:39:48 AM
[worldNews] Trump proposes Palestinian state with capital in East Jerusalem U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday proposed creation of a Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem, dependent on Palestinians taking steps to become self-governing, in an attempt to achieve a peace breakthrough in their decades of conflict with Israel.
Published:1/28/2020 11:39:48 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Rebounds Bullishly After Monday Sell-Off; Apple Rallies Ahead Of Earnings The stock market showed solid gains near midday Tuesday after Monday's drubbing. Growth stocks bounced back in spades, including Apple ahead of earnings. Published:1/28/2020 11:39:48 AM
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[Markets] Central Banks Have Made Markets So Fragile, Liquidity Premiums Are Now Negative Central Banks Have Made Markets So Fragile, Liquidity Premiums Are Now Negative

Back in late December, when the market was melting up every single day with zero regard for economic data or newsflow, we pointed out something ominous: the world's most liquid stock market, the S&P500, was now as (il)liquid as it was during the 2008 financial crisis.

As BofA's Benjamin Bowler wrote, while market liquidity generally correlated with volatility, in recent years, it was progressively deteriorating despite near record low levels on the VIX. According to BofA calculations, average "illiquidity" for S&P e-mini futures since 2018 has been in its 73rd% since 2008. Historically, the period when markets were less liquid was primarily during the '08 crisis when the VIX was north of 40.

It is also noteworthy that illiquidity rose ahead of the sharp fragility events of Aug-2011, Aug-2015, and Feb-2018, while implied vol remained muted until very near the selloffs, suggesting that VIX no longer reflects prevailing market stress, and confirms what Morgan Stanley said in late 2019, namely that Fed actions now directly seek to lower marketwide volatility.

Why does this matter?

Because as BofA summarized one month ago, the fact that liquidity seems to be progressively deteriorating over time suggests that market fragility is getting worse, particularly as long as crowding remains a problem and liquidity providers are incentivized to pull back from liquidity provision in times of stress.

Wait, what fragility?

While we have extensively discussed the growing fragility of the market, manifesting itself in ever more frequent liquidity "air pockets" and "flash crashes", here is a quick reminder, once again courtesy of Bank of America, which writes that despite the direct suppression of volatility by central banks, "markets have remained highly fragile in recent years."

The left chart below shows that BofA's fragility measure for the S&P 500 exceeded global financial crisis (GFC) levels during 2018 despite volatility remaining at or below its longer-run average. In fact, as the chart on the right shows, fragility across 25 markets covering five asset classes has been historically elevated vs. volatility in recent years.

This matters because as Bowler notes, it is fragility - not volatility - that is a better measure of the risk that active managers are exposed to. In this vein, BofA believes that high market fragility in the past few years (which corresponded to relatively large hedge fund drawdowns) "is driven by a combination of investor crowding in an alpha starved market and the increasingly fickle liquidity provision from high frequency traders (HFTs)."

Fast forward to the end of January when we got a very clear example of what happens when fragility and black swan (or perhaps black bat) events collide.

As Bowler writes today, "fragility risk remains real - as seen from the -3.2 stdev drop in the S&P on 27-Jan following a near-record Sharpe of 6.3 over the prior 3m" and is driving a paradigm shift in harvesting the equity volatility risk premium (VRP).

The S&P volatility risk premium - long one of the most persistent across derivatives markets - has been especially hard hit, turning negative on average in 2018 for the first time outside of the GFC and struggling to revive itself in 2019.

BofA attributes this to:

  • (i) a supply-demand shift in S&P options usage (towards more robust supply from yield-starved investors and weaker hedging demand from under-positioned equity investors), as well as
  • (ii) high market fragility (i.e., large dislocations in price relative to the prevailing level of volatility), which has altered the distribution of the SPX VRP in recent years by pulling its average well below its median

Looking to 2020, more bullish US equity positioning (as the Fed increasingly pulled investors back into the recent rally where there wasn't a single +/-1% market swing in 70 days ) could restore healthier demand for S&P hedges in sell-offs, according to Bowler. However, in yet another irony, more liquid markets now tend to perversely experience more acute fragility events, as they attract a broader array of trading activity. In other words, superior liquidity equates to higher crowding risk, which translates to greater realized fragility in markets today. One needs to only recall the "other 1%", namely that the top 5 companies in the S&P500 make up a record 18% of total market cap, more than the dot com era, to get a sense of what's going on.

Alas, with the S&P being the most liquid equity market in the world, "and to the extent that central bank-induced financial repression continues to incentivize yield-starved investors to sell short-dated S&P options/vol for income, headwinds to the SPX VRP likely remain", according to BofA.

What's the remedy?

According to BofA's chief derivatives strategist, beyond adopting more defensive approaches to VRP harvesting, investors should look to diversify away fragility risk. Sizing is also critical to the risk management of short volatility positions, and applying more conservative sizing schemes to assets prone to fragility shocks can help limit the contribution of such assets to broader cross-asset risk premia portfolios.

What does this mean in practical terms? While the S&P does not rank at the very bottom of the screen, it still ranks among the worst (and sits above the regression line in Chart 8). Importantly, what makes the S&P/Nasdaq rank so poorly vs. SX5E is not the benefit side of the equation, but instead the fragility risk (see Chart 9). Indeed, the Stoxx 50 has the second-lowest fragility risk metric among the markets considered (i.e., selling vol on SX5E has been one of the safest opportunities for vol sellers among popular global equity indices over the past 4 years; see Chart 10). Hence, it is ironic that selling vol in markets which some would consider as having better fundamentals (e.g., US large caps or US Tech) has become a worse investment proposition than selling vol on markets with the some of the worst fundamentals (e.g., European equities or US small caps).

In conclusion, and consistent with the notion of a negative liquidity premium, whereby more liquid markets like the S&P are ironically more vulnerable to fragility shocks, BofA finds that selling volatility on markets with worse fundamentals - e.g., European equities (SX5E) - has perversely become a better investment proposition than selling volatility on US large caps. Paradoxically, VRP "harvesting" on the Stoxx 50 has never been safer vs. the S&P or Nasdaq over the past 20 years. This leads BofA to conclude that "S&P vol sellers should efficiently diversify away fragility risk."

Of course, they won't and instead the crowding will continue until one day the market crashes and the Fed is unable to spark the BTFD rebound, resulting in what will likely be the first ever market-wide halt that will last for a long time until clearing prices based on fundamentals and not liquidity are rediscovered far, far lower.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 12:25
Published:1/28/2020 11:39:48 AM
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[Politics] Sen. Durbin: Bolton's Ukraine Claims 'Certainly Relevant' Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin said Tuesday he can't tell the number of Republicans who likely will vote to accept witnesses to testify in the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, but he does believe the information that has surfaced about John Bolton . . . Published:1/28/2020 11:05:53 AM
[Politics] Alan Dershowitz on Trump defense: 'I will not make money on this'

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Published:1/28/2020 11:05:53 AM
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[Markets] Avenatti Googled "Insider Trading" And "Nike Puts" Before Attempting To Shake Down Sneaker Giant Avenatti Googled "Insider Trading" And "Nike Puts" Before Attempting To Shake Down Sneaker Giant

No, this is not from the Onion.

Somehow, before driving his firm and himself into near bankruptcy due to his insatiable lifestyle addiction, Michael Avenatti was once a respected California lawyer.

A respected California lawyer who clearly had no qualms googling things like "Insider trading" and "Nike puts" before allegedly attempting to extort the world's biggest manufacturer of athletic shoes. Even if he wasn't arrested for the threats, the SEC would have almost certainly nailed him if he tried to trade on his own press conference.

With Avenatti's trial set to begin next week, prosecutors are arguing that the judge should admit a history of Avenatti's google searches, which they argued offer critical insights into Avenatti's state of mind while he was concocting the so-called extortion plot (Avenatti originally partnered with another celebrity lawyer, Mark Geragos, according to media reports. However, Geragos was never charged in the scheme).

According to Bloomberg, prosecutors informed US District Judge Paul Gardephe about the emails on Monday, and are now trying to convince the judge to let the jury see the evidence. However, the judge has raised some hackles with their argument, pointing out that Avenatti is not being tried for insider-trading related charges.

Despite being re-arrested two weeks ago for violating his bail terms by - what else? - trying to conceal money from the government, Avenatti appeared in court Monday wearing a real suit (instead of an orange jumpsuit) for his pre-trial hearing. Opening statements in the trial could start as soon as Tuesday.

We're certain Avenatti's lawyers will use every trick in the book to try to redirect the jury's focus to Nike's misdeeds, rather than Avenatti's allegedly illegal behavior. They've already leaked information about texts showing Nike lawyers mocking the FBI to the press, suggesting that the company's wrongdoing will be a cornerstone of their defense.

But judge Gardephe said Monday he won't allow the trial to "involve an exploration" of whether Nike sought to corrupt youth basketball. But the lawyers can argue to the jury that Nike's intentions when they approached the FBI about Avenatti were less than pure.

Nike argued in a filing that Avenatti was simply trying to "put the government’s and Nike’s conduct on trial” because he can’t dodge the video and audio evidence of his demands on the company.

"He intends to misdirect the jury - pointing their attention anywhere but on his own conduct - in the hope that at least one of them will be confused by evidence that is legally irrelevant and factually inaccurate," Nike said.

Responding to this, the "creepy porn lawyer's" legal team described the google searches mentioned above as a "red herring."

"The obvious implication is that Mr. Avenatti illegally traded in Nike stock based upon information obtained from Coach Franklin," the defense lawyers said in a Jan. 24 court filing. "That did not happen, the government has no evidence that it did, and Mr. Avenatti is not charged with insider trading."

Sure, he didn't trade on his information. But we'd off an analogy to illustrate what these google searches represent: It'd be like if a man accused of attempted murderer had googled "best strategies for disposing of a body" before the assault.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 11:50
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Published:1/28/2020 11:05:53 AM
[Entertainment] Eilish, Rage Against the Machine among Firefly headliners Alternative rockers Rage Against the Machine and Grammy wunderkind Billie Eilish will be among the headliners at this year’s Firefly Music Festival in Delaware Published:1/28/2020 11:05:53 AM
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[Politics] Rasmussen Reports Weekly Immigration Index

The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of January 19-23, 2020 is at 102.7, up from 100.5 the week before.

The Immigration Index will be updated every Tuesday at noon Eastern.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Published:1/28/2020 11:05:53 AM
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Published:1/28/2020 10:41:48 AM
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The post Baby Tinslee Lewis and the Difficult End-of-Life Care Debate appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 10:41:48 AM
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[Markets] Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip'? Is It Time To 'Buy The Dip'?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the last few weeks, we have discussed the outsize market advance driven by the Fed’s massive liquidity injections into the market. As we discussed with our RIAPRO subscribers (30-day RISK FREE Trial) we stated:

“If it appears to you that the recent rally is an anomaly, your thoughts do not deceive you. The graph below shows that recent returns divided by annualized volatility (risk) have been running higher than at any time since the financial crisis.

This standard calculation of return per unit of risk is technically called the Sharpe Ratio. The ratio has been sitting around 2.0 for most of January. To put that into context, the current reading is about 4 sigma (standard deviations) from the norm, an event that should statistically occur in one day out of every 43 years. Since January first, there have been 5 daily readings that were greater than 4 sigmas!”

Not surprisingly, due to that extreme reading the correction on Monday was the largest we have seen since the Federal Reserve started intervening into the financial market in mid-October of last year.

This analysis, along with several other posts over the last couple of weeks, detailed our concerns about inherent market risk and why we reduced portfolio exposure a couple of weeks ago. To wit:

“On Friday, we began the orderly process of reducing exposure in our portfolios to take in profits, reduce portfolio risk, and raise cash levels. 

  • In the Equity Portfolios, we reduced our weightings in some of our more extended holdings such as Apple (AAPL,) Microsoft (MSFT), United Healthcare (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Micron (MU.)

  • In the ETF Sector Rotation Portfolio, we reduced our overweight positions in Technology (XLK), Healthcare (XLV), Mortgage Real Estate (REM), Communications (XLC), Discretionary (XLY) back to portfolio weightings for now. 

  • The Dynamic Portfolio was allocated to a market neutral position by shorting the S&P index itself.

Let me state clearly, we did not ‘sell everything’ and go to cash. We simply reduced our holdings to raise cash, and capture some of the gains we made in 2019. When the market corrects we will use our cash holdings to either add back to our current positions, or add new ones.”

While I received a lot of emails and comments questioning why would we “sell out of the market” and “go to cash,” such was NOT the case. We did raise our cash position from 5% to 12%. Just prior to increasing cash, we had previously added defensive exposure in fixed income, gold, gold miners, and REIT’s. However, we still maintain the majority of our long equity exposures currently.

You Can’t Time Market Corrections

At the time we made these changes, it appeared we were clearly wrong as the market continued to grind higher. As Howard Marks once quipped:

“Being early, even if you are right, is the same as being wrong.” 

However, from a portfolio management, and more particularly, a “risk mitigation” view, our job isn’t necessarily to hit the exact tops or bottoms, just to provide a cushion against losses.

During the last couple of weeks, we have noted the extreme overbought, overly bullish, and over complacent conditions of the market. Here is an updated chart of the S&P 500 from two weeks ago when we discussed taking profits.

With the markets pushing into 3-standard deviations above the 200-day moving average, it was only a function of time before a correction occurred. Therefore, while we were early taking profits, the end result is it reduced portfolio risk against a pending correction. As I wrote then:

“While the markets could certainly see a push higher in the short-term from the Fed’s ongoing liquidity injections, the gains for 2020 could very well be front-loaded for investors. 

Taking profits and reducing risks now may lead to a short-term underperformance in portfolios, but you will likely appreciate the reduced volatility if, and when, the current optimism fades.”

When discussing portfolio management, it is often suggested that you can’t “time the market.”

That statement is correct.

You can not effectively, and repetitively, get “in” and “out” of the market on a timely fashion. I have never suggested that an investor should try and do this. However, I have discussed managing risk by adjusting market exposure at times when “risk” outweighs the potential for further “reward.”

While our actions are almost always misunderstood, and labeled as “bearish,” I am actually neither bullish or bearish. In our practice, we follow a very simple set of rules, which forms the core of our portfolio management philosophy which focuses on capital preservation and long-term “risk-adjusted” returns.

As long-term investors, we don’t worry about short-term rallies, we only need to worry about the direction of overall market trends, and focus on capturing more of the positive and less of the negative. This philosophy stems from Baron Nathan Rothschild’s view:

“You can have the top 20% and the bottom 20%, I will take the 80% in the middle.”

While our assessment of the market two-weeks ago was that risk versus reward was unbalanced, such can remain the case for extended periods of time.

The problem with an economy being propped up by artificially appreciated assets is that this pendulum swings both ways. At some point, prices eventually decline. No one knows what will cause the decline;

  • Higher interest rates like in 2018,

  • A presidential tweet, when he launched the “trade war” with China.

  • The ongoing implosion of the Chinese economy is still a threat.

  • It could just be the realization by the markets that asset prices don’t grow to the sky.

  • Or, it could be triggered by an unexpected, exogenous event, which results in the markets “repricing” risk. 

The “coronavirus” was the exogenous event the markets had not priced into its view.

Is It Time To “Buy The Dip?”

With the “sell off” on Monday, the immediate reaction by investors is to jump in and “buy the dip.” This would seem to be the logical action given the Federal Reserve is still supplying liquidity to the market currently.

Maybe not.

The chart below is part of the analysis we use to “onboard” new client portfolios. The purpose of this measure is to avoid transitioning a new client into our portfolio models near a short-term peak of the market. The vertical red lines suggest we avoid adding equity risk to portfolios and vice versa.

There are a few important points to denote in the chart above.

  1. The top and bottom signals are essentially relative strength and momentum measures. Both are currently still on “buy” signals and the current “sell off” has not reversed those signals as of yet. 

  2. With the market still very deviated above the longer-term 200-dma, and just clearing out of 3-standard deviation territory, there is currently more downside risk, than upside reward. 

  3. Note that corrections, once the “sell signals” are triggered can last from several weeks, to several months. During the correction process there are often multiple opportunities to reduce risk and raise cash accordingly. 

  4. The last two times the market pushed into 3-standard deviation territory, the resulting corrections were fairly sharp and lasted for several months.

However, on a VERY short-term basis the market is indeed oversold, and is testing the breakout of the upward trending trading range from last year. Given the MACD has registered a “sell signal” from a fairly high level, investors must consider the risk of further downside even if the market rallies over the next couple of days.

Don’t be fooled that a short-term reflexive rally is an “all-clear” for the bull market to resume. With the bulk of our momentum, relative strength, and overbought/sold indicators just starting to correct from recent highs, it is likely short-term rallies will be “selling opportunities” over the next couple of weeks as the market either corrects further or consolidates recent gains.

As we have detailed over the last few missives, due to the rather extreme extension of the market, this is likely the beginning of a correction which could encompass a 5-10% decline in totality before it is complete.

The problem for investors is they tend to make to critical mistakes in managing portfolios.

  • Investors are slow to react to new information (they anchor), which initially leads to under-reaction but eventually shifts to over-reaction during late-cycle stages.

  • Investors are ultimately driven by the “herding” effect. A rising market leads to “justifications” to explain over-valued holdings. In other words, buying begets more buying.

  • Lastly, as the markets turn, the “disposition” effect takes hold and winners are sold to protect gains, but losers are held in the hopes of better prices later. 

With the Federal Reserve reducing slowing its torrid pace of liquidity, still weak economic growth, and potential for weaker than expected earnings growth, the risk remains to the downside currently.

From that perspective, we are continuing to maintain our higher levels of cash, and we will use reflexive rallies in the short-term to rebalance portfolio risk as needed according to our investment discipline.

  1. Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position.

  2. Hedge portfolios against major market declines.

  3. Take profits in positions that have been big winners

  4. Sell laggards and losers

  5. Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.

Notice, nothing in there says, “sell everything and go to cash.”

As Michael Lebowitz previously noted:

“The point being made here is essential; risk management is generous. Based on the past 100 years of market data, there is no evidence that long-term returns are penalized by taking a defensive investment posture at high valuations. Investors today do not need to ‘buy and hold’ stocks and remain heavily invested when expected returns are paltry. The historical record, though imprecise, affords an excellent map for navigating and managing risk.”

By having reduced risk, we can afford to remain patient and wait for the next opportunity. Much like a professional baseball player, by reducing risk we create an environment that is “emotionally” controllable and we can exercise patience until a “fat pitch” comes along.

One thing is for certain, swinging at every pitch, won’t get you into the “hall of fame.” 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 11:30
Published:1/28/2020 10:41:48 AM
[Cloud] Nutanix execs discuss how they built their 2016 IPO roadshow deck Bringing a startup from idea to IPO isn’t an easy task, but if you can build something successful, one major milestone is to go public. Before your Nasdaq debut, however, there’s a major step — building a deck and taking it on the road for investors. Cloud computing company Nutanix went public in 2016, so […] Published:1/28/2020 10:41:48 AM
[] Glorified media troll Rick Wilson doubles down on being a DBAG to Trump supporters after being called out for nasty CNN segment Published:1/28/2020 10:10:22 AM
[] CNN panel trashes Trump supporters as illiterate "boomer rubes" Published:1/28/2020 10:10:22 AM
[Politics] DOJ Refutes Bolton's Barr Claim: 'Grossly' Inaccurate The Department of Justice said an alleged claim by former national security adviser John Bolton that Attorney General William Barr was concerned about "personal favors" President Donald Trump did for certain world leaders "grossly mischaracterizes" the situation. Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Politics] VIDEO: CNN host completely loses it with SMUG laughing fit while guests mock Trump supporters; Even Ivanka Trump called it “disgusting” On a channel I’m sure most of you don’t watch, CNN’s Don Lemon went into a severe laughing fit last night for over a minute after Trump-hater Rick Wilson and some other . . . Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Entertainment] Lena Dunham Reveals Where She Stands With Ex Jack Antonoff Today Lena Dunham, Jack AntonoffLena Dunham and Jack Antonoff's relationship went from lovers to friends, but it wasn't an easy road. In her cover interview for the March issue of Cosmopolitan UK, the Girls alum...
Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Energy] Faulty Assumptions Lead to Fake News About Climate Change

Climate change soon will constitute “a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters,” one government study predicted. By 2020, according to... Read More

The post Faulty Assumptions Lead to Fake News About Climate Change appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Markets] Durable-Goods Orders Rose but ‘Core’ Goods Fell, Signaling Weaker Business Investment Although overall orders rose a better-than-anticipated 2.4% last month from November, orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, unexpectedly declined 0.9%. Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[TC] The robotic fry cook Flippy is getting a new look Miso Robotics, the designers of the world’s most popular robotic fry cook “Flippy”, is giving their burger-flipping, french fry prepping robot a new look. The company has designed a new installation for its robotic arm that slots under the hood above a fry station instead of planting the robot on a kitchen floor. It’s a […] Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[worldNews] Burkina Faso farming town struggles to cope with fallout of violence Two years ago, Pissila was a quiet farming town in Burkina Faso, unfamiliar with the violence that was stirring further north. Now an influx of displaced people has changed life dramatically for its 15,000 inhabitants.
Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Entertainment] Italians (mostly) love Elena Ferrante’s new novel. Here’s what Americans can expect. “The Lying Life of Adults” arrives in the United States in June: An Italian reader’s spoiler-free preview. Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[3645b312-4939-53b2-aba6-3a2133f51165] 'Octomom' Natalie Suleman posts photo of 'miracle' octuplets on their 11th birthday Natalie Suleman, known as "Octomom," posted a photo of her famous octuplets to commemorate their 11th birthday.  Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[Markets] Bernie Sanders Staffer Admits Campaign Attracts "Marxists, Leninists And Anarchists" Bernie Sanders Staffer Admits Campaign Attracts "Marxists, Leninists And Anarchists"

Two more Bernie Sanders staffers have been caught on tape speaking passionately about 'the revolution' they're fighting, they type of people the Sanders campaign attracts, and the need to take direct, violent action against their enemies.

"I’ve Canvassed with Someone Who’s an Anarchist, and with Someone Who’s a Marxist/Leninist. So, We Attract Radical, Truly Radical People in the Campaign…Obviously That’s Not Outward Facing," said South Carolina field organizer, Mason Baird, who told a Project Veritas undercover operative "We would need a federal government and a labor movement that is working together to strip power away from capitalists and preferably directing that violence towards property."

"A lot of those people (on the campaign) who do that kind of work, they're Marxist-Leninists, they're anarchists...They have more of a mind for direct action...engaging in politics outside of the electoral system," says Baird.

Another South Carolina field organizer, Daniel Taylor, said that not everybody is ready for the "crazy stuff," when it comes to direct action.

"We don't want to scare people off, so you kinda have to feel it out before you get into the crazy stuff...more, more extreme organizations and stuff like Antifa, you know you were talking about the Yellow Vests and all that; but, you know we're kinda keeping that, keeping that on the back-burner for right now."

"It's unfortunate that we have to make plans for extreme action, but like I said, they're not going to give it to us, even if Bernie is elected."

Earlier this month, Veritas caught two other Sanders staffers extolling the virtues of throwing capitalists in literal gulags, and fighting in the revolution.

In short, Sanders is getting the Antifa vote, assuming they vote.

As O'Keefe notes at the end of the latest montage, will Bernie disavow these radicals within his campaign, or does he welcome them?

Watch the full video below:

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 11:05
Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[] The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition
******
Published:1/28/2020 10:10:21 AM
[] Gonna leave a mark! Brit Hume OWNS Don Lemon and his blatant hatred of Trump supporters with BRUTAL fact about CNN Published:1/28/2020 9:39:21 AM
[] The effects of New York's bungled criminal justice reforms are already hitting home Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Entertainment] Why Justin Bieber Almost Didn't Propose to Hailey Bieber Justin Bieber, Ellen ShowWhat do you mean?! On Tuesday, Justin Bieber stopped by The Ellen DeGeneres Show, where he candidly spoke about wife Hailey Bieber. After acknowledging their longtime friendship and...
Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Politics] Netanyahu indicted in Israel as he joins Trump at White House to unveil an unlikely peace plan

As Trump prepares to unveil a plan to ease the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is indicted at home for alleging accepting millions of dollars in bribes.

Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Markets] Dow Reports Earnings Wednesday. Here’s What to Expect. Commodity-chemical giant Dow will report fourth-quarter earnings. The numbers will offer a look into the health of the global economy, and a chance to see if Dow stock, which trades at a relatively big discount, is cheap enough. Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Aerospace] Kepler will build its small satellites at a new manufacturing facility in Toronto Satellite communications startup Kepler will manufacture its small satellites going forward at a new 5,000-square foot facility in Toronto, Ontario, Canada . The company is working with partners including the Canadian Space Agency and the University of Toronto on the new facility, which will also incorporate design and development of its satellites in addition to […] Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Markets] No Bonus For JPM Bankers As Goldman Self-Monitors For Deadly Virus        No Bonus For JPM Bankers As Goldman Self-Monitors For Deadly Virus       

As the real economy continues to decelerate and the Federal Reserve's 'Not QE' catapulted growth stocks to the moon, well not anymore since coronavirus has spooked global markets, bankers across the industry have seen their annual bonuses stagnate.  

JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently decided to keep annual bonuses flat across its investment bank segment for the 2019 year, reported Bloomberg

JPM bankers should not complain about the lack of pay increases, at least they still have a job, considering an industrywide cut has shocked many in the last year, as macroeconomic headwinds continue to rise. 

The bank noted compensation expense grew 4% to $10.6 billion for the corporate and investment bank units last year as headcount rose 3%.

Bloomberg said pay for top management increased by 1.6% to 2.4% last year, a small boost compared to 2018 figures. 

Even CEO Jamie Dimon's compensation only increased by a mere 1.6% to $31.5 million, a reduction in growth seen over the prior year.

Despite employment compensation growth waning, JPM recorded some of the highest profits ever with $36.4 billion, due to a 56% increase in stock and bond trading in the fourth quarter, after it single-handedly triggered the repo crisis, forcing the Fed to launch 'Not QE.'

Across the industry, we've noted as the stock market hit record highs, thousands of bankers have been laid off. 

Morgan Stanley last month fired 2% of its workforce, or approximately 1,500 workers, due to a slowdown in the economy. 

Earlier this month, Barclays Plc slashed 100 senior staff at its investment bank unit. These cuts were primarily made in Europe and the U.S. 

Goldman Sachs has had its fair share of layoffs and pay reduction in 2019. Now bankers at the firm, who have recently visited China, have been told to quarantine themselves at home for two weeks for fears they might have coronavirus.

It seems coronavirus could be the next excuse by banks to reduce pay or layoff staff members.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/28/2020 - 10:30
Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Politics] Americans Are Confident U.S. Health System Can Handle Coronavirus

Most Americans are worried about the rapidly spreading coronavirus but feel confident the U.S. public health system is up to the challenge.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 72% of American Adults correctly predicted that the coronavirus outbreak in China was likely to spread to the United States, with 31% who said it was Very Likely. Just 19% thought the spread of the virus to America was not very or Not At All Likely. Several cases of coronavirus were confirmed by U.S. authorities over the weekend. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted January 23 and 26, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Uncategorized] Lawrence O’Donnell: Trump may have killed Soleimani “to influence Bolton not to testify to the Senate” MSNBC prime time host tweets bizarre theory, and his followers spread it far and wide. Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Markets] Consumer confidence hits 5-month high at the start of 2020 Consumer confidence hits 5-month high at the start of 2020 Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
[Politics] VIDEO: CNN host completely loses it with SMUG laughing fit while guests mock Trump supporters; Even Ivanka Trump called it “disgusting” On a channel I’m sure most of you don’t watch, CNN’s Don Lemon went into a severe laughing fit last night for over a minute after Trump-hater Rick Wilson and some other . . . Published:1/28/2020 9:39:20 AM
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